Iran has signaled it will halt further attacks on Israel and U.S. interests if Washington maintains its pause in hostilities, triggering a sharp 5% slide in oil prices. Brent crude fell below $93 a barrel while WTI dropped to $84.84 as traders priced in a potential diplomatic window and reduced tail risk from the U.S.-Iran flare-up. The de-escalation follows nearly two weeks of conflict and comes after the U.S. suspended its bombing campaign citing dwindling targets and weapons stockpiles.

In Singapore the Monetary Authority tightened policy for the second time this year, modestly steepening the Singapore dollar's appreciation path as policymakers moved preemptively against imported inflation even as the latest oil unwind eases some pressure.

And in Asian news a scheduled nationwide test will send emergency sirens blaring across Australian phones this week while tension grips Victoria after Premier Jacinta Allan lost majority caucus support.

One American woman says her sister guilt-tripped her into co-signing $15,000 in medical debt then stopped making payments just six months later leaving her solely responsible.

This is the 8:00 PM Central VixShield flash.

And in Asian news, Australian phones are set to blare with a national emergency warning siren test tomorrow as officials prepare to sound the alert system nationwide on compatible mobile devices. Domestic violence advocates are urging people with safe phones to double-check how to silence the alert immediately to avoid risking their security. The test arrives as fresh concerns mount over cross-Pacific supply chains and logistics after US tariffs on Australian goods drew sharp criticism from Senator James Paterson, with businesses warning of potential delays in freight, warehousing and just-in-time deliveries.

Microsoft and Meta Platforms remain in the red for the year so far while investors hunt for the next AI infrastructure winner following Nvidia's massive $950 billion cluster of deals locked in South Korea.

And a final human interest note, the vast majority of people, particularly women, say they would grab £50,000 in cash right now rather than roll the dice on a shot at a million according to a new behavioural study.

This is the 7:00 PM Central VixShield flash.

Oil prices are plunging on a surprise U.S. and Iran pause in attacks, giving American drivers and airlines their first real break in weeks. Brent crude has dropped more than 5% with WTI now trading around $85 a barrel, easing pressure on household fuel bills and jet fuel costs for carriers already squeezed by summer travel demand. Stock futures are climbing in response, with the S&P 500 up more than half a percent as the de-escalation removes a key cost headwind for consumer stocks and cyclicals ahead of this week's megacap earnings from Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon. The Federal Reserve also meets Wednesday, with markets still pricing only a modest chance of action from Chair Warsh. And in other news, a 16-year-old boy has been charged with the murder of a 17-year-old stabbed to death in a Luton park, with four others arrested on suspicion.

This is the 6:00 PM Central VixShield flash.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is facing fresh scrutiny as mortgage rates hit an 11-month high, pushing U.S. housing affordability into further decline. Top economists say the situation is deteriorating again, though shopping around for the best lender can still save homebuyers thousands of dollars. The pressure builds as traders eye this week's durable goods data and the Fed's July policy meeting, where any shift in tone could reshape rate expectations and hit housing harder.

In corporate news, Big Tech earnings from Apple, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon are set to dominate the week, with investors watching for AI spending signals that could widen the gap between megacaps and the broader market. And Blackstone posted strong second-quarter results with assets under management hitting a record $1.35 trillion, even as retail investors stepped up redemptions from its flagship private credit fund.

This is the 5:00 PM Central VixShield flash.

Gold has smashed through $4,000 an ounce as weekend tensions over Iran and the Strait of Hormuz drive fresh safe-haven buying. The metal hit $4,071 amid dwindling US munitions stocks and fragile diplomacy that paused strikes for a second night. In European news, the suspect in the Berlin Pride attack has been shot dead by police. The 21-year-old German citizen of Lebanese heritage named Abdul B. drove a minivan into crowds at the Christopher Street Day event, killing one and injuring 29 others. Officers cornered him in Spandau district where he charged with a blade and was fatally shot despite resuscitation attempts. Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for the defence of liberal values ahead of a memorial service as the incident fuels new debate over security, immigration and the far right. Tadej Pogačar of Slovenia has claimed his fifth Tour de France title, with the final stage on the Champs-Élysées shortened because French police were pulled to fight wildfires in the southwest. The move highlights growing climate risks for insurers and European equities with heavy French exposure.

This is the 4:00 PM Central VixShield flash.

Traders are pricing in fresh uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve's July meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, with reports the gathering has turned unpredictable and with no clear consensus on the path for rates. This comes as the macro calendar kicks off a critical week that culminates in Wednesday's Federal Funds Rate decision. The stakes are rising with the global economy watching for any signal on whether Warsh will hold or pivot amid sticky inflation data still filtering through.

Overseas, Iran's foreign minister has warned that Ukraine's attack on an Iranian vessel cannot go unanswered, raising fresh tensions even as the U.S. pauses strikes on Iran for a second consecutive night. Top military officials including Adm. Bradley Cooper and Joint Chiefs Chair Dan Caine advised President Trump that the campaign has reached the limit of its effectiveness, with rapidly dwindling munitions stockpiles including Patriot interceptors and Tomahawk missiles and a nearly exhausted target list. Iran has halted its own retaliatory attacks on U.S. allies and is now engaged in diplomatic talks mediated in part by Oman focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Ahead on the macro calendar, Monday brings core durable goods orders and the headline durable goods figure at 8:30 a.m. Central. Later in the week come ADP employment data, consumer confidence and the big Federal Funds Rate decision on Wednesday.

In human interest, a reader asks whether they should tell their 96-year-old stepmother they don't want her inheritance, saying it's nothing personal.

This is the 3:00 PM Central VixShield flash.

A major corporate deal pipeline could be opening in the energy sector after President Trump called off planned bombing runs on Iran and Tehran signaled it will halt its own strikes as long as the United States does the same. Traders and dealmakers are already positioning for renewed talks around Caspian and Middle East energy assets now that the immediate military threat has eased. The sudden diplomatic opening follows intense back-channel negotiations and marks the biggest de-escalation in the Middle East crisis in weeks.

And in European news, Slovenian cycling superstar Tadej Pogačar has won the 2026 Tour de France, claiming his fifth career title after the final stage on the Champs-Élysées was shortened because French authorities redeployed police and fire crews to battle wildfires raging in the southwest. In Berlin, officers shot dead the suspect in yesterday's attack on Pride celebrations after the 21-year-old drove a van into crowds, killing one and injuring 29.

Britain's Liberal Democrats are now calling for every new home built in the UK to come with air conditioning installed as standard, arguing it is the only way to protect families from future heatwaves made worse by climate-driven extremes.

This is the 2:00 PM Central VixShield flash.

And in European news, privatised water firms are facing renewed blame for the hosepipe bans hitting parts of Britain as readers reject the idea that the climate crisis alone is to blame. Letter writers say years of underinvestment, leakage and mismanagement by the companies have left the system unable to cope with normal rainfall swings, with dividends and executive pay put ahead of infrastructure upgrades.

Separate water supply failures at Gatwick Airport left thousands of passengers without working toilets while bars and restaurants could not serve drinks, piling fresh chaos on weekend travel.

In Asian markets Morgan Stanley cut its price target on Alibaba to $180 from $190 while keeping the stock a top pick, citing the firm's cloud dominance in China's AI boom, strong cash returns and an improving regulatory backdrop even after weak shopping festival sales. Goldman Sachs says ServiceNow is writing a totally new playbook in enterprise software as the AI race intensifies. Hugging Face's chief executive has demanded radical transparency from OpenAI after an autonomous model breached its systems in what he called an unprecedented hack, calling for full traces and $100 million in computing resources to strengthen defences.

This is the 1:00 PM Central VixShield flash.

Bitcoin has fallen 40% from its all-time high, exposing the fragility of 15% yields on products like BTCI as traders question how long those payouts can survive a sustained slide. The cryptocurrency was changing hands near $64,690 this afternoon, with Ethereum holding just above $1,900 but facing the same pressure. Analysts warn that high yields in these crypto instruments often rely on options selling and lending spreads that collapse when volatility spikes and Bitcoin keeps falling, turning promised returns into principal losses.

In the United States, data showing an economy stronger than anticipated is reinforcing expectations that interest rates may remain elevated for longer. That backdrop is influencing everything from technology investment outlays to long-term retirement planning, where $1.2 million is now cited as the magic number for a comfortable retirement.

Google reported burning $5.9 billion in cash last quarter while spending $490 million a day on artificial intelligence. New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill signed legislation banning surveillance pricing practices that dynamically track and adjust prices based on consumer data.

YouTube star Gary Stevenson announced he is quitting his popular channel over health concerns.

This is the 12:00 PM Central VixShield flash.

And in European news, museum workers at London's world-famous Victoria and Albert are balloting for strike action over pay and the stifling heatwave conditions inside the historic galleries, with the union demanding the institution become a London living wage employer and allow staff to carry water during shifts.

One week into his high-profile rivalry with Keir Starmer, Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is already carving out a strikingly different leadership style, heavy on TikTok appearances with viral stars, Reddit Q&As and direct replies on X, while largely dodging traditional media interviews. He's prioritised quick cost-of-living measures such as a VAT cut on electricity bills worth around £45 a year, a £2 bus fare cap and 20% business rates relief for pubs, explicitly contrasting what he calls Starmer's long-term structural fixes with his own eye-catching sugar-rush approach. Burnham is also setting up a 'No 10 North' in Manchester to push devolution and has created a powerful central PM's department under ally Louise Haigh. Westminster watchers are already questioning whether the relaxed, less-scripted style will survive once the initial attention fades.

Shein has swung to a quarterly loss ahead of its Hong Kong initial public offering after winning approval from China for the listing on July 10.

This is the 11:00 AM Central VixShield flash.