muckrAIkers

The idea of model cards, which was introduced as a measure to increase transparency and understanding of LLMs, has been perverted into the marketing gimmick characterized by OpenAI's o1 system card. To demonstrate the adversarial stance we believe is necessary to draw meaning from these press-releases-in-disguise, we conduct a close read of the system card. Be warned, there's a lot of muck in this one.

Note: All figures/tables discussed in the podcast can be found on the podcast website at https://kairos.fm/muckraikers/e009/

• (00:00) - Recorded 2024.12.08

• o1 system card
• OpenAI press release collection - 12 Days of OpenAI

Additional o1 Coverage

• NIST + AISI [report] - US AISI and UK AISI Joint Pre-Deployment Test
• Apollo Research's paper - Frontier Models are Capable of In-context Scheming
• VentureBeat article - OpenAI launches full o1 model with image uploads and analysis, debuts ChatGPT Pro
• The Atlantic article - The GPT Era Is Already Ending

On Data Labelers

• 60 Minutes article + video - Labelers training AI say they're overworked, underpaid and exploited by big American tech companies
• Reflections article - The hidden health dangers of data labeling in AI development
• Privacy International article = Humans in the AI loop: the data labelers behind some of the most powerful LLMs' training datasets

Chain-of-Thought Papers Cited

• Paper - Measuring Faithfulness in Chain-of-Thought Reasoning
• Paper - Language Models Don't Always Say What They Think: Unfaithful Explanations in Chain-of-Thought Prompting
• Paper - On the Hardness of Faithful Chain-of-Thought Reasoning in Large Language Models
• Paper - Faithfulness vs. Plausibility: On the (Un)Reliability of Explanations from Large Language Models

Other Mentioned/Relevant Sources

• Andy Jones blogpost - Rao-Blackwellization
• Paper - Training on the Test Task Confounds Evaluation and Emergence
• Paper - Best-of-N Jailbreaking
• Research landing page - SWE Bench
• Code Competition - Konwinski Prize
• Lakera game = Gandalf
• Kate Crawford's Atlas of AI
• BlueDot Impact's course - Intro to Transformative AI

Unrelated Developments

• Cruz's letter to Merrick Garland
• AWS News Blog article - Introducing Amazon Nova foundation models: Frontier intelligence and industry leading price performance
• BleepingComputer article - Ultralytics AI model hijacked to infect thousands with cryptominer
• The Register article - Microsoft teases Copilot Vision, the AI sidekick that judges your tabs
• Fox Business article - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman looking forward to working with Trump admin, says US must build best AI infrastructure

While on the campaign trail, Trump made claims about repealing Biden's Executive Order on AI, but what will actually be changed when he gets into office? We take this opportunity to examine policies being discussed or implemented by leading governments around the world.

• (00:00) - Intro

• SFChronicle article - US gathers allies to talk AI safety as Trump's vow to undo Biden's AI policy overshadows their work
• Trump's Executive Order on AI (the AI governance executive order at home)
• Biden's Executive Order on AI
• Congressional report brief which advises a "Manhattan Project for AI"

Non-USA

• CAIRNE resource collection on CERN for AI
• UK Frontier AI Taskforce report (2023)
• International interim report (2024)
• Bengio's paper - AI and Catastrophic Risk
• Davidad's Safeguarded AI program at ARIA
• MIT Technology Review article - Four things to know about China’s new AI rules in 2024
• GovInsider article - Australia’s national policy for ethical use of AI starts to take shape
• Future of Privacy forum article - The African Union’s Continental AI Strategy: Data Protection and Governance Laws Set to Play a Key Role in AI Regulation

Taxes

• Macroeconomic Dynamics paper - Automation, Stagnation, and the Implications of a Robot Tax
• CESifo paper - AI, Automation, and Taxation
• GavTax article - Taxation of Artificial Intelligence and Automation

Perplexity Pages

• CERN for AI page
• China's AI policy page
• Singapore's AI policy page
• AI policy in Africa, India, Australia page

Other Sources

• Artificial Intelligence Made Simple article - NYT's "AI Outperforms Doctors" Story Is Wrong
• Intel report - Reclaim Your Day: The Impact of AI PCs on Productivity
• Heise Online article - Users on AI PCs slower, Intel sees problem in unenlightened users
• The Hacker News article - North Korean Hackers Steal $10M with AI-Driven Scams and Malware on LinkedIn
• Futurism article - Character.AI Is Hosting Pedophile Chatbots That Groom Users Who Say They're Underage
• Vice article - 'AI Jesus' Is Now Taking Confessions at a Church in Switzerland
• Politico article - Ted Cruz: Congress 'doesn't know what the hell it's doing' with AI regulation
• US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation press release - Sen. Cruz Sounds Alarm Over Industry Role in AI Czar Harris’s Censorship Agenda

Multiple news outlets, including The Information, Bloomberg, and Reuters [see sources] are reporting an "end of scaling" for the current AI paradigm. In this episode we look into these articles, as well as a wide variety of economic forecasting, empirical analysis, and technical papers to understand the validity, and impact of these reports. We also use this as an opportunity to contextualize the realized versus promised fruits of "AI".

• (00:23) - Hot off the press

• The Information article - OpenAI Shifts Strategy as Rate of ‘GPT’ AI Improvements Slows
• Bloomberg [article] - OpenAI, Google and Anthropic Are Struggling to Build More Advanced AI
• Reuters article - OpenAI and others seek new path to smarter AI as current methods hit limitations
• Paper on the end of quantization - Scaling Laws for Precision
• Tim Dettmers Tweet on "Scaling Laws for Precision"

Empirical Analysis

• WU Vienna paper - Unslicing the pie: AI innovation and the labor share in European regions
• IMF paper - The Labor Market Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Evidence from US Regions
• NBER paper - Automation, Career Values, and Political Preferences
• Pew Research Center report - Which U.S. Workers Are More Exposed to AI on Their Jobs?

Forecasting

• NBER/Acemoglu paper - The Simple Macroeconomics of AI
• NBER/Acemoglu paper - Harms of AI
• IMF report - Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work
• Submission to Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest - Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely

Externalities and the Bursting Bubble

• NBER paper - Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets
• Clayton Christensen lecture capture - Clayton Christensen: Disruptive innovation
• The New Republic article - The “Godfather of AI” Predicted I Wouldn’t Have a Job. He Was Wrong.
• Latent Space article - $2 H100s: How the GPU Rental Bubble Burst

On Productization

• Palantir press release on introduction of Claude to US security and defense
• Ars Technica article - Claude AI to process secret government data through new Palantir deal
• OpenAI press release on partnering with Condé Nast
• Candid Technology article - Shutterstock and Getty partner with OpenAI and BRIA
• E2B
• Stripe agents
• Robopair

Other Sources

• CBS News article - Google AI chatbot responds with a threatening message: "Human … Please die."
• Biometric Update article - Travelers to EU may be subjected to AI lie detector
• Techcrunch article - OpenAI’s tumultuous early years revealed in emails from Musk, Altman, and others
• Richard Ngo Tweet on leaving OpenAI

October 2024 saw a National Security Memorandum and US framework for using AI in national security contexts. We go through the content so you don't have to, pull out the important bits, and summarize our main takeaways.

• (00:48) - The memorandum

• United States National Security Memorandum on AI
• Fact Sheet on the National Security Memorandum
• Framework to Advance AI Governance and Risk Management in National Security

Related Media

• CAIS Newsletter - AI Safety Newsletter #43
• NIST report - Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework: Generative Artificial Intelligence Profile
• ACLU press release - ACLU Warns that Biden-Harris Administration Rules on AI in National Security Lack Key Protections
• Wikipedia article - Presidential Memorandum
• Reuters article - White House presses gov't AI use with eye on security, guardrails
• Forbes article - America’s AI Security Strategy Acknowledges There’s No Stopping AI
• DefenseScoop article - New White House directive prods DOD, intelligence agencies to move faster adopting AI capabilities
• NYTimes article - Biden Administration Outlines Government ‘Guardrails’ for A.I. Tools
• Forbes article - 5 Things To Know About The New National Security Memorandum On AI – And What ChatGPT Thinks
• Federal News Network interview - A look inside the latest White House artificial intelligence memo
• Govtech article - Reactions Mostly Positive to National Security AI Memo
• The Information article - Biden Memo Encourages Military Use of AI

Other Sources

• Physical Intelligence press release - π0: Our First Generalist Policy
• OpenAI press release - Introducing ChatGPT Search
• WhoPoo App!!

Frontier developers continue their war on sane versioning schema to bring us Claude 3.5 Sonnet (New), along with "computer use" capabilities. We discuss not only the new model, but also why Anthropic may have released this model and tool combination now.

• (00:00) - Intro

Links

• Anthropic press release - Introducing Claude 3.5 Sonnet (New)
• Model Card Addendum

Other Anthropic Relevant Media

• Paper - Sabotage Evaluations for Frontier Models
• Anthropic press release - Anthropic's Updated RSP
• Alignment Forum blogpost - Anthropic's Updated RSP
• Tweet - Response to scare regarding Anthropic training on user data
• Anthropic press release - Developing a computer use model
• Simon Willison article - Initial explorations of Anthropic’s new Computer Use capability
• Tweet - ARC Prize performance
• The Information article - Anthropic Has Floated $40 Billion Valuation in Funding Talks

Other Sources

• LWN.net article - OSI readies controversial Open AI definition
• National Security Memorandum
• Framework to Advance AI Governance and Risk Management in National Security
• Reuters article - Mother sues AI chatbot company Character.AI, Google over son's suicide
• Medium article - A Small Step Towards Reproducing OpenAI o1: Progress Report on the Steiner Open Source Models
• The Guardian article - Google's solution to accidental algorithmic racism: ban gorillas
• TIME article - Ethical AI Isn’t to Blame for Google’s Gemini Debacle
• Latacora article - The SOC2 Starting Seven
• Grandview Research market trends - Robotic Process Automation Market Trends

Brace yourselves, winter is coming for OpenAI - atleast, that's what we think. In this episode we look at OpenAI's recent massive funding round and ask "why would anyone want to fund a company that is set to lose net 5 billion USD for 2024?" We scrape through a whole lot of muck to find the meaningful signals in all this news, and there is a lot of it, so get ready!

• (00:00) - Intro

• Reuters article - OpenAI closes $6.6 billion funding haul with investment from Microsoft and Nvidia
• Goldman Sachs report - GenAI: Too Much Spend, Too Little Benefit
• Apricitas Economics article - The AI Investment Boom
• Discussion of "The AI Investment Boom" on YCombinator
• State of AI in 13 Charts
• Fortune article - OpenAI sees $5 billion loss in 2024 and soaring sales as big ChatGPT fee hikes planned, report says

More on AI Hype (Dying)

• Latent Space article - The Winds of AI Winter
• Article by Gary Marcus - The Great AI Retrenchment has Begun
• TimmermanReport article - AI: If Not Now, When? No, Really - When?
• MIT News article - Who Will Benefit from AI?
• Washington Post article - The AI Hype bubble is deflating. Now comes the hard part.
• Andreesen Horowitz article - Why AI Will Save the World

Other Sources

• Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence Foundation Model Transparency Index
• Cointelegraph article - Europe gathers global experts to draft ‘Code of Practice’ for AI
• Reuters article - Microsoft's VP of GenAI research to join OpenAI
• Twitter post from Tim Brooks on joining DeepMind
• Edward Zitron article - The Man Who Killed Google Search

The Open Source AI Definition is out after years of drafting, will it reestablish brand meaning for the “Open Source” term? Also, the 2024 Nobel Prizes in Physics and Chemistry are heavily tied to AI; we scrutinize not only this year's prizes, but also Nobel Prizes as a concept.

• (00:00) - Intro

Links

• Open Source AI Definition, Release Candidate 1
• OSAID RC1 announcement
• All Nobel Prizes 2024

More Reading on Open Source AI

• Kairos.FM article - Open Source AI is a lie, but it doesn't have to be
• The Register article - The open source AI civil war approaches
• MIT Technology Review article - We finally have a definition for open-source AI

On Nobel Prizes

• Paper - Access to Opportunity in the Sciences: Evidence from the Nobel Laureates
• Physics prize - scientific background, popular info
• Chemistry prize - scientific background, popular info
• Reuters article - Google's Nobel prize winners stir debate over AI research
• Wikipedia article - Nobel disease

Other Sources

• Pivot.ai article - People are ‘blatantly stealing my work,’ AI artist complains
• Paper - GSM-Symbolic: Understanding the Limitations of Mathematical Reasoning in Large Language Models
• Paper - Reclaiming AI as a Theoretical Tool for Cognitive Science | Computational Brain & Behavior

Why is Mark Ruffalo talking about SB1047, and what is it anyway? Tune in for our thoughts on the now vetoed California legislation that had Big Tech scared.

• (00:00) - Intro

• SB1047 legislation page
• SB1047 CalMatters page
• Newsom vetoes SB1047
• CAIS newsletter on SB1047
• Prominent AI nerd letter
• Anthropic's letter
• SB1047 ~explainer

Additional SB1047 Related Coverage

• Opposition to SB1047 'makes no sense'
• Newsom on SB1047
• Andreesen Horowitz on SB1047
• Classy move by Dan
• Ex-OpenAI employee says Altman doesn't want regulation

Other Sources

• o1 doesn't measure up in new benchmark paper
• OpenAI losses and gains
• OpenAI crypto hack
• "Murati out" -Mira Murati, probably
• Altman pitching datacenters to White House
• Sam Altman, 'podcast bro'
• Paper: Contract Design with Safety Inspections

OpenAI's new model is out, and we are going to have to rake through a lot of muck to get the value out of this one!

⚠ Opt out of LinkedIn's GenAI scraping ➡️ https://lnkd.in/epziUeTi

• (00:00) - Intro

Links relating to o1

• OpenAI blogpost
• System card webpage
• GitHub collection of o1 related media
• AMA Twitter thread
• Francois Chollet Tweet on reasoning and o1
• The academic paper doing something very similar to o1

Other stuff we mention

• OpenAI's huge valuation hinges on upending corporate structure
• Meta acknowledges it’s scraping all public posts for AI training
• White House announces new private sector voluntary commitments to combat image-based sexual abuse
• Sam Altman wants you to be grateful
• The Zuck is done apologizing
• IAPS report on technical safety research at AI companies
• Llama2 70B is "about as good" as GPT-4 at summarization tasks