My Pharma Reviews

Google raised $85 billion last week. Not because it was struggling. Because it could and decided the window to dominate AI infrastructure was open right now. They generate $174 billion in operating cash annually. And still went to the equity market. That’s not desperation. That’s a theory of winning.

Now look at Indian pharma.

Our largest capital event of 2026: Sun Pharma’s $11.75 billion acquisition of Organon, a company Merck spun off because it no longer fit their future. Sun is buying what a global innovator de-prioritised. Google is building what doesn’t yet exist.

Both moves are rational.

When Indian pharma raises capital, is it offensive or reactive? Are we raising from strength or after the FDA warning letter, after the US pricing erosion, after the margin compression?

When we talk about innovation, is there a ring-fenced capital pool that can’t be raided when the core has a bad quarter? Or is the innovation budget the first casualty of a tough year?

Indian pharma has the cash, talent and manufacturing credibility. What it hasn’t yet demonstrated is the willingness to commit capital so large, so sustained, and so patient that it forces the organisation to become something it has never been before.

The full analysis including verified FY25 R&D numbers across Sun, DRL, Cipla and Lupin, and a breakdown of why the Alphabet analogy holds in some places and breaks down in others is in the podcast episode linked below.

I would genuinely value the perspective of everyone in pharma strategy, investment, or R&D on where you think the analogy is fair and where it isn’t.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mypharmareviews.substack.com

Are the world’s largest companies actually your safest investments?

Market cap is a lagging indicator of past success, not a real-time shield against structural shifts. From the tech sector to global biopharma, extreme customer concentration and rigid supply chains are creating hidden systemic risks.

In my latest analysis, I break down Michael Burry’s high-profile short position on Nvidia and explore the striking parallels playing out in the global pharmaceutical landscape. Listen in!

KEY DATA SOURCES — All Verified

Nvidia 10-Q (Q1 FY2027, filed April 2026): Three customers = 30%, 18%, 16% of accounts receivable (64% total). Source: SEC EDGAR.

Nvidia CFO Commentary Q4 FY2026: Supply-related commitments of $95.2 billion. Source: SEC EDGAR investor.nvidia.com.

Nvidia CFO Commentary Q1 FY2027: Supply commitments grown to $119 billion. Source: SEC EDGAR.

Nvidia Q1 FY2026 Press Release (May 2025): $4.5 billion H20 inventory/purchase obligation charge. Source: investor.nvidia.com.

Merck 2024 Annual Report: Keytruda revenue $29.5 billion, representing ~46-56% of pharmaceutical sales.

Merck SEC risk disclosures: US Keytruda exclusivity expected to end December 2028; IRA pricing begins January 2028.

Semaglutide patent expiry India: March 20, 2026. Source: Indian Patent Office records; confirmed by GeneOnline, The Indian Practitioner (March 2026).

GLP-1 India market size: ~₹1,446 crore (12 months to February 2026). Source: Pharmarack / Business Line.

Global biosimilar patent cliff $100B+ by 2030: DeepCeutix Strategic Briefing, February 2026.

Scion Asset Management 13F (Q3 2025, filed November 2025): Put options on 1 million Nvidia shares (~$187M notional). Source: SEC EDGAR. Note: Scion deregistered November 2025.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mypharmareviews.substack.com

Indian pharma is splitting into three tiers.

Tier 1 — Companies Actually Doing Innovation

Sun Pharma: 20% of revenues now come from innovative specialty drugs. Was 7.3% in FY18. Rs.3,554 crore spent on R&D in FY26 alone.

Zydus: FDA Priority Review for saroglitazar — a molecule discovered in India, for an American patient population.

Dr. Reddy’s: Co-developing a biosimilar to Keytruda ($32bn in 2025 global sales). Building cell and gene therapy manufacturing through Aurigene. $40M invested in a Hyderabad biologics facility.

Glenmark/IGI: $700M upfront from AbbVie for ISB 2001. Total deal value up to $1.925 billion. Largest biotech licensing deal in Indian pharma history

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Tier 2 — Innovating Where Global Pharma Won’t Go

Wockhardt’s Zaynich: FDA approved. June 2026. The first drug fully discovered, developed, and approved by an Indian company in the United States.

A novel antibiotic. 96.8% cure rate in Phase 3. A $25bn TAM that Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and Sanofi all walked away from because the commercial model didn’t work for them.

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Tier 3 — The Smart Generics Players

Cipla. Mankind. Alkem. Aristo. Aurobindo. Torrent.

Exceptionally run. Strong ROCE. Deep India reach.

But capital allocation into original drug discovery? Not yet.

When a promoter family’s entire net worth sits in one listed stock, betting thousands of crores on science that might produce nothing for 15 years is genuinely difficult to justify. That is rational wealth management, not strategic failure.

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So will Tier 1 inspire Tier 3?

Yes. But not the way most people expect. The split has already happened. The only question left is how long it takes the market and the boards of Tier 3 companies, to price it correctly. Full analysis in a 35-minute podcast. Listen in.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mypharmareviews.substack.com

Sun Pharma’s US innovative medicines just crossed $1 billion. Unloxcyt is the newest piece of that puzzle. It is an oncology immunotherapy, first of its kind in its class, now commercially available in the US.

But is it a platform asset or a niche product? And what does it actually signal about Indian pharma’s innovation transition?

That’s what this episode is about. Listen in.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mypharmareviews.substack.com

May 2026 produced three clinical datasets that will reshape how Indian pharma competes, what investors should be modelling, and which commercial franchises face structural headwinds they aren’t pricing in yet.

1. A triple-agonist obesity drug matching bariatric surgery outcomes.

2. A one-time gene edit that permanently silences a cholesterol gene.

3. An oral pill that nearly doubled survival in pancreatic cancer, a disease that has killed patients with near-total predictability.

Listen to this 20-minute podcast episode for more details. The LinkedIn poll from last week showed 86% of this audience hadn’t yet engaged with ‘one and done’ therapies. This episode is the briefing you probably needed.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mypharmareviews.substack.com

The most dangerous competitor facing Indian pharma today is not a Chinese API manufacturer. It is a 27-year-old ML engineer in Bengaluru who just chose Anthropic over a biotech offer. He will spend the next decade helping build the systems that make the generics model obsolete.

New episode. 20 minutes. For CXOs and investors who want the uncomfortable version of this conversation. Listen in.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mypharmareviews.substack.com

One cancer drug. One company. $31.7 billion in a single year.

That is Keytruda. Not a platform. Not an ecosystem. One molecule. And it nearly matches what OpenAI - the most talked-about company in the world right now - generates across its entire global operation.

Indian pharma has spent two decades being told it is a commodity business. The numbers say otherwise. Keytruda’s core patent expires in 2028. $31 billion dollars of revenue is about to be exposed to biosimilar competition. For Indian companies with the manufacturing muscle and regulatory depth to move fast, that is the brief. The question is whether your BD team is already in the room, or whether you will read about it in someone else’s press release.

Listen in!

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mypharmareviews.substack.com

Indian pharma’s digital health partnerships probably did more to strengthen the e-pharmacies than to strengthen pharma. Tata 1mg. PharmEasy. Apollo 24/7. These platforms now own the patient data, the refill relationship, and increasingly the first point of contact for health decisions. The manufacturers who supply them own... a shipment record.

Are the quick remedies enabled by digital platforms keeping patients away from doctors? If the answer is yes (and the OTC market data suggests it is) then the physician-centric commercial model has a structural problem that no number of wellness apps will solve.

Full breakdown in this episode — which companies did what, what they said, and what actually happened. Listen in!

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mypharmareviews.substack.com

India pharma is entering a reset. As the Yuan weakens against the Rupee, India’s API makers with strong KSM and intermediate integration are regaining competitiveness, especially in categories where Chinese suppliers once dominated on price.

Add the government’s PLI support, and the economics for domestic manufacturing get even stronger. But the true long-term escape from low-margin generics lies in CDMO and biologics, where technical depth, regulatory rigour, and customer stickiness create real barriers.

That is why Encube’s AI-led move matters. It signals a shift toward smarter, more connected pharma operations where context, speed, and execution become the new competitive edge.

Listen in as we decode this reset.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mypharmareviews.substack.com

L’Oréal doesn’t lack money or labs. What it lacks is seven years of India-specific consumer trust, D2C muscle, and proprietary formulation depth. That’s why it’s reportedly paying ₹4,000 crore for Innovist. HUL doesn’t lack brand-building capability. What it couldn’t build fast enough was Minimalist’s ingredient-loyal consumer community so it paid ₹2,955 crore for it instead. In both cases, the premium wasn’t for the brand. It was for the irreplaceable asset underneath it.

Meanwhile, India’s regional pharma companies have built nothing irreplaceable. 8000+ MSME players buy the same molecules from the same CDMOs, push them through MR networks to the same doctors, and call the result a branded business. The patient, the chronic-disease sufferer who will take the same tablet for twenty years, has no relationship with the company whatsoever. That’s not a brand. That’s a distribution arrangement wearing a logo.

On this episode, we talk about how the consolidation cycle in Indian pharma has begun. Schedule M compliance deadlines are already straining the weakest players. Large groups are acquiring for capability, not revenue. Distressed exits at book value are coming for those who built nothing proprietary. Premium acquisitions will go to the few who built what money alone cannot replicate like a formulation that’s patented, brands with solid patient relationships, a distribution asset that took a decade to build. Promoters need to think about what they own/built that a well-capitalised competitor couldn’t rebuild in eighteen months? If the answer isn’t clear, you already have your answer.

Listen in for a more detailed analysis.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mypharmareviews.substack.com