Tariff juggling - just moving them around - no studies, no rationale
Big Moves - One of the worst Novembers since 2008
The Big Short - End of a Era?
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Warm-Up
- Last Few Days for IBIT CTP - Closing Price This Friday
- The Big Short - End of a Era?
- What is happening to Bitcoin?
- THC laws changing - interesting loophole closed
Markets
- Tariff juggling - just moving them around - no studies, no rationale
- Big Moves - One of the worst Novembers since 2008
- Hindenburg Omen
- Fed Losing Cred
WHY?
- If tariffs are not inflationary and this administration has brought down prices on groceries....
- President Trump signed an EO Friday lowering tariffs on beef, tomatoes, coffee and bananas, according to Bloomberg
- So , just shooting from the hip on all of this are we?
--- Seriously, where is the plan, where is the analysis, where are the results? Total horseshit
More Tariffs
- Switzerland and U.S. agree to trade deal; U.S. will lower tariffs to 15% from 39%; Swiss companies are planning to make direct investments in the USA amounting to $200 billion by the end of 2028
- Switzerland will reduce some import duties on US Imports
- For other US export interests, a solution was agreed that takes Switzerland's agricultural policy interests into account: under the agreement, Switzerland will grant the US duty-free bilateral tariff quotas on selected US export products: 500 tonnes for beef, 1,000 tonnes for bison meat and 1,500 tonnes for poultry meat.
- Furthermore, Swiss companies are planning to make direct investments in the USA amounting to $200 bln by the end of 2028.
- What did we accomplish here? - Just going back to what it was with a slightly higher tariff on Swiss goods than before...BECAUSE WE WERE GETTING KILLED WITH FOOD COSTS
Fed Update
- Markets no longer view December as a sure bet
- Lots of Fed speakers out with commentary that is hawkish
- Currently, there is a 46% chance of a rate cut by 0.25% - a month ago it was at 95%
- AND, they should not cut in the absence of all data (Stephan Miran looking for 0.50%, but he is a total tool)
More Horseshit!
- Former Federal Reserve Board Gov. Adriana Kugler broke the central bank’s rules regarding stock trading, according to a report released by the U.S. Government Ethics Office.
- Now we know why she abruptly resigned a few months ago
- That disclosure shows two kinds of violations of Fed rules regarding financial transactions by senior officials at the central bank: purchases of stocks of individual companies, as opposed to mutual funds; and purchases of securities during so-called “blackout periods” leading up to and after Federal Open Market Committee meetings.
- Oh - Supposedly her husband did it - but come on!
- Fed losing more credibility - this is not the first time....
StampFlation
- The Postal Service filed notice with the Postal Regulatory Commission for Shipping Services price changes to take effect Jan. 18, 2026. The proposed adjustments were approved by the governors of USPS this week.
- The change would raise prices approximately 6.6 percent for Priority Mail service, 5.1 percent for Priority Mail Express service, 7.8 percent for USPS Ground Advantage and 6.0 percent for Parcel Select.
BIG
- Michael Burry, the investor whose successful bets against the U.S. housing market in 2008 were recounted in the movie "The Big Short," is closing his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management.
- In a letter to investors dated October 27, a copy of which was seen by Reuters, Burry said he would liquidate the funds and return capital, "but for a small audit/tax holdback" by the end of the year.
- "My estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, i
