The NASCAR Cup Teams take on a new venue this weekend at the Naval Base Coronado. It is a long road course with a lot of turns to the right and the left. There are many places for the drivers to mess up and there are many places that could end their day if they make the wrong choice or move.
From this fan’s view, and after watching the practices and the qualifying, this could turn into a race for second place. Once again, SVG looks to have a good grip on the new track, and he did win the pole. That isn’t a definite thing, but it is a definite possibility. Of course, that is pure speculation at this point, and there were a couple of others who turned in really good qualifying times. It looks like Carson Hocevar and Ryan Blaney could give him a run for his money. Hocevar starts outside SVG on the front row after qualifying second, and Blaney qualified third.
This is the first time in recent memory that none of the Toyotas qualified in the top ten. Of course, that’s not as ominous as it may sound at first. They do have the eleventh, twelfth, and thirteenth spots locked in at the time of this writing, but it’s not the usual ones we’ve come to expect over the last several races. Ty Gibbs qualified eleventh, Bubba Wallace twelfth, and Corey Heim thirteenth. Tyler Reddick starts seventeenth and Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin qualified twenty-second and twenty-sixth.
That just is not what this fan expected, but they have had problems on road race tracks in the past. The way Hamlin has been running over the last three races, starting further back in the lineup, hasn’t really detoured him from being there at the front when the races wind down to their final laps. After all, we can’t overlook the fact that Hamlin has won the last three races in a row. Though he admits they struggle on road courses, who’s to say he won’t make it four in a row?
Like I said, the top ten has some of the expected competitors, but there are some surprises and some that are just good road racers. Zane Smith starts fourth, Todd Gilliland qualified fifth. I have to admit, those two kind of surprised me. I wasn’t surprised all that much by the next four. Daniel Suarez has been showing some speed lately in qualifying, He just needs it to carry over to the end of the race. Ryan Preece and Connor Zilisch qualifying seventh and eighth, respectively, is kind of surprising but not totally unexpected, much like Michael McDowell, who is starting ninth.
I am surprised, although I shouldn’t be, that Austin Hill took the tenth starting spot. Since he took over the number thirty-three Chevy for RCR after the unexpected death of Kyle Bush, he has been steadily improving in the Cup car. He is talented and every race, he is improving as he adapts to the Cup Series. I don’t expect it, but could he be one of the dark horses for the race today? Well, probably not, but he just might be one of the ones to watch when it comes to the final checkered flag.
I’ve already mentioned the Toyotas and where they’re starting, but there are several drivers who just missed it when it came to qualifying. Kyle Larson finished at the top of the board in Friday’s practice sessions. I really thought he might be starting a lot nearer to the front, likely in the top five, but he just couldn’t do better than fourteenth. I won’t count him out for being in the hunt in the closing laps, but I’m just not seeing it as a reality at the moment. He may surprise us all, though.
The rest of the Hendrick Chevys qualified pretty far back in the field, also. Bowman, twentieth, Byron, twenty-seventh, and Elliott, thirtieth. I can’t say I was expecting that at all.
I could go on and on about the qualifying and how poorly some of them did, but I won’t. Let’s move on to what it might take to finish at or near the front.
First of all, this fan believes the only hope most of the field has of taking the win is for SVG to have problems. His road-racing skill has almost been unmatched over the last two years in particular. He just has an advantage over most in the field, and that’s why I said earlier, this might be a race for second place. I know this is a tough track and is going to challenge all of the drivers, but, unless SVG has problems, this fan thinks he is going to win.
I know I’ve been pretty blunt in what I’ve just said, and I could be surprised at which of the drivers might win. As I mentioned earlier, there are a lot of places that a driver can mess up, and SVG is no exception. And believe me, I’m not counting out the rest of the field just because he has shown himself to usually have an advantage over them on the road racing tracks. I just believe everyone has their work cut out for themselves in this one.
Tires and avoiding hitting the walls could be the biggest key to winning this one. Along with all of those challenges, just being patient and not too aggressive at the wrong spots could be the ticket to Victory Lane for any of them. Honestly, I’m expecting a lot of carnage…
Hey, this is Russ and that’s my view… I’ll see you next time…
All views expressed are strictly the opinion of the writer
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Rusty Norman, Nascarfansview.com
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