Ralph Hertwig (Max Planck Institute for Human Development) gives a talk at the Workshop on Causal and Probabilistic Reasoning (18-20 June, 2015) titled "Navigating the Twilight of Uncertainty: Decisions from Experience". Abstract: In many of our decisions we cannot consult explicit statistics telling us about the relative risks involved in our actions. In lieu of explicit statistics, we can search either externally or internally for information, thus making decisions from experience (as opposed to decisions from descriptions). Recently, researchers have begun to investigate choice in settings in which people learn about options by experiential sampling over time. Converging findings show that when people make decisions based on experience, choices differ systematically from description-based choice. Furthermore, this research on decisions from experience has turned to new theories of decision making under uncertainty (ambiguity), “rediscovered” the importance of learning, and suggested important implications for risk and precautionary behavior. I will review these issues.