In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses how macroeconomic conditions impact equity markets. The U.S. typically performs best when economic growth is above potential with low inflation, while having its worst performance during stagflation (low growth, high inflation) environments. Alejandra also discusses this analysis for Europe and Japan.

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S1:E24

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the trajectories for the U.S. and Chinese economies. In the first half of the year, China exceeded its government's growth goal of 5%, while economic sentiment in the U.S. lagged relative to other parts of the world. For the second half of the year, conditions in China are likely to soften, while the U.S. could see some upside surprises.

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S1:23

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the second half outlook for the global economy. Policy uncertainty has been a key influence so far in 2025. Most of the major economies we monitor will likely see slower economic growth in the second half of the year due to the impact of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Fortunately, recession doesn’t appear on the horizon anywhere, except for Japan, where recessions are common given low potential growth.

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In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the state of the economy post Liberation Day. Due to the persistent uncertainty, NDR reduced its real GDP growth forecast, indicating a slowing economy, but not falling into recession at this time. So far, global trade has remained resilient as economies adapt. Inflation in the U.S. is likely to be higher a year from now, but unlikely to approach post-pandemic reopening highs.

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S1:21

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the trajectory of the economy. Prior to the reciprocal tariff announcement, hard economic data looked favorable. However, more responsive soft economic data, such as surveys, painted a weaker outlook. If fully implemented, tariffs could have a dual-negative impact on the economy by increasing the price of goods and services, while creating downside risks to economic growth. This combination would create a significant monetary policy challenge for the Federal Reserve.

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S1:20

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the global economy including growth, inflation, and tariffs. Although global economic activity has slowed, leading indicators continue to point to positive growth. Higher tariffs are likely to increase U.S. inflation, which could slow the Fed’s easing. The U.S. dollar and the Swiss franc are more likely to see gains when global policy uncertainty increases.

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S1:E19

For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work:

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.ndr.com/hs/contact-us⁠

In this episode, NDR's Senior U.S. Economist Veneta Dimitrova discusses the next decade through our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. We believe there are five major themes that will impact the global economy and the investment world over the next decade: AI, energy revolution, aging demographics, receding globalization, and global fiscal challenges. On net, we expect somewhat slower global real GDP growth and lower inflation through 2034 than over the previous decade. 

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S1:E18

For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work:

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.ndr.com/hs/contact-us⁠

In this episode, NDR's Senior U.S. Economist Veneta Dimitrova discusses the next decade through our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. We believe there are five major themes that will impact the global economy and the investment world over the next decade: AI, energy revolution, aging demographics, receding globalization, and global fiscal challenges. On net, we expect somewhat slower global real GDP growth and lower inflation through 2034 than over the previous decade. 

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S1:E18

For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work:

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.ndr.com/hs/contact-us⁠

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the outlook for the global economy in 2025. 2024 has been a good year for the global economy, with real GDP expected to rise more than 3%.  We expect global growth to remain constructive in 2025, in line with its pace in 2024. With three-quarters of the world’s central banks now in easing cycles, easier monetary policy should help boostthe expansion next year. However, 2025 is riddled with higher uncertainty, the most obvious being the risk of broad-based tariffs from the U.S.

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S1:E17

For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work:

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In the latest Ned Davis Research podcast, See the Signals, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the U.S. economy. Prior to the election, the U.S. economy was outperforming its G7 counterparts. However, there are risks to outlook if proposed policies swell the government’s budget deficit and debt. A resulting fast runup in yields could cause U.S. equities to stumble. Looking internationally, proposed tariffs on exports to the U.S. could have a significant impact on Mexico, Canada, and Vietnam. 

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S1:E16

For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work:

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us⁠