In NN#8, Chris finally invites a guest to join the podcast rather than just sharing his own views. He cordially welcomes Dr. Emily Grubert to the show to discuss their respective complaints about deficiencies in energy and climate modeling, and how they might be cured.
Sources

Emily Grubert’s personal website

Emily Grubert, “The state of energy transition research and the need for fossil phase-out: evidence from Environmental Research Letters,” Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 21, No. 14, July 20, 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae8610.  

Joshua Lappen and Emily Grubert, “Fossil Energy Minimum Viable Scale,” Science, Vol. 386, No. 6734, January 29, 2026. DOI: 10.1126/science.aea0972. 

TT#8: Fixing Climate Communications, Transition Times, June 19, 2026.

NN#6: Backsliding on Climate, Transition Times, July 2, 2026.

TT#10: The Heat is On, Transition Times, July 7, 2026.

TT#12: A Failure to Communicate, Transition Times, July 31, 2026.

TT#5: CCS in the spotlight (again), Transition Times, May 29, 2026.

NN#4: Carbon Capture Follies, Transition Times, May 29, 2026.

Van Vuuren, D. P., O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., Sanderson, B. M., Chini, L. P., Friedlingstein, P., Hasegawa, T., Riahi, K., Govindasamy, B., Bauer, N., Eyring, V., Fall, C. M. N., Frieler, K., Gidden, M. J., Gohar, L. K., Högner, A., Jones, A. D., Kikstra, J., King, A., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lawrence, P., Lennard, C., Lowe, J., Mathison, C., Mehmood, S., Nicholls, Z., Prado, L. F., Zhang, Q., Rose, S. K., Ruane, A. C., Sandstad, M., Schleussner, C.-F., Seferian, R., Sillmann, J., Smith, C., Sörensson, A. A., Panickal, S., Tachiiri, K., Vaughan, N., Vishwanathan, S. S., Yokohata, T., Zecchetto, M., and Ziehn, T.: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7), Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2627–2656, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2627-2026, 2026.

Zeke Hausfather, Glen Peters, and Piers Forster, “On the death of RCP8.5,” The Climate Brink, May 18, 2026.

Robert McSweeney, Cecilia Keating, Zeke Hausfather, “Factcheck: Trump’s false claims about the IPCC and ‘RCP8.5’ climate scenario,” Carbon Brief, May 19, 2026.

It’s time for energy and climate modelers to start trying to tell the world what’s likely to happen, and show them how to phase out fossil fuels completely.

Sources

Emily Grubert’s personal website

Emily Grubert, “The state of energy transition research and the need for fossil phase-out: evidence from Environmental Research Letters,” Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 21, No. 14, July 20, 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae8610.  

Van Vuuren, D. P., O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., Sanderson, B. M., Chini, L. P., Friedlingstein, P., Hasegawa, T., Riahi, K., Govindasamy, B., Bauer, N., Eyring, V., Fall, C. M. N., Frieler, K., Gidden, M. J., Gohar, L. K., Högner, A., Jones, A. D., Kikstra, J., King, A., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lawrence, P., Lennard, C., Lowe, J., Mathison, C., Mehmood, S., Nicholls, Z., Prado, L. F., Zhang, Q., Rose, S. K., Ruane, A. C., Sandstad, M., Schleussner, C.-F., Seferian, R., Sillmann, J., Smith, C., Sörensson, A. A., Panickal, S., Tachiiri, K., Vaughan, N., Vishwanathan, S. S., Yokohata, T., Zecchetto, M., and Ziehn, T.: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7), Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2627–2656, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2627-2026, 2026.

Zeke Hausfather, Glen Peters, and Piers Forster, “On the death of RCP8.5,” The Climate Brink, May 18, 2026.

Robert McSweeney, Cecilia Keating, Zeke Hausfather, “Factcheck: Trump’s false claims about the IPCC and ‘RCP8.5’ climate scenario,” Carbon Brief, May 19, 2026.

Much of the world is backsliding on their climate commitments just when we need them to be increasing their ambition, but taking action when it’s difficult is the name of the game.

Sources

Jan Rosenow, “Is electrification happening fast enough?” Bright Spots, June 14, 2026.

Valerie Volcovici, “Gas plants for US data centers to be major source of climate change-linked emissions, report says,” Reuters, July 1, 2026.

Olivia Raimonde and Spencer Soper, “Big Tech’s Carbon Emissions Spike With Runaway Growth of AI,” Bloomberg, July 1, 2026.

Episode #135 – Internalizing Climate Risk (with Bob Litterman), Energy Transition Show, November 25, 2020.

David Gelles, “How Wall Street Turned Its Back on Climate Change,” The New York Times, January 17, 2026.

Lisa Friedman and Maxine Joselow, “Trump Allies Near ‘Total Victory’ in Wiping Out U.S. Climate Regulation,” The New York Times, February 9, 2026.

David Lawder, “World Bank to abandon goal to devote 45% of lending resources to climate change projects,” Reuters, June 29, 2026.

Jano Gibson, “US accused of trying to 'edit out' climate change in Antarctic report,” ABC News, June 18, 2026.

Ysabelle Kempe, “New York state gives up on its most ambitious climate targets,” Canary Media,  May 27, 2026.

Ryan Cooper, “Better Affordability Through Climate Policy,” The American Prospect, June 22, 2026.

Hans Nicholas Jong, “Indonesia backs away from coal exit test case amid financial and political pushback,” Mongabay, January 15, 2026.

Janet Wood, “Ministers scrap proposal to require solar photovoltaic canopies on public car parks after industry consultation raises cost concerns,” Freight Carbon Zero, May 28, 206. 

Simon Evans, “Factcheck: Why Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch is wrong about UK’s net-zero goal,” Carbon Brief, March 18, 2025. 

Elena Giordano, “Europe must choose between AI and climate goals, data center lobby says,” PoliticoPro, June 17, 2026.

Mike Scott, “Big Tech splits over proposed shake up of clean energy accounting,” Reuters, May 26, 2026.

John Ainger, “Trump’s White House Takes Aim at EU Emissions Law,” Bloomberg, July 1, 2026.

Episode #269 – Trump’s War on the Energy Transition, Energy Transition Show, Februrary 11, 2026.

Jennifer McDermott, “Trump administration to buy back another energy company’s offshore wind leases for 4 more projects,” Associated Press, June 17, 2026.

Jennifer McDermott, “Federal judge strikes down some Trump administration actions that have slowed clean energy projects,” Associated Press, April 21, 2026.

Leah Stokes, Short Circuiting Policy: Interest Groups and the Battle Over Clean Energy and Climate Policy in the American States, Oxford University Press, 2020.

Episode #121 – Winning and Losing the Policy Game, Energy Transition Show, February 11, 2026.

Susan Lamontagne, “This is the wrong time for major media to shut down environmental coverage,” The New Lede, June 22, 206. 

Eric Roston, “What Americans Who Worry About Climate Change Are Getting Wrong,” Bloomberg, June 25, 2026.

Energy Transition Index 2026, World Economic Forum, June 2026. 

“Response to Parliament passing the Seventh Carbon Budget into law,” Climate Change Committee, June 24, 2026.

Simon Evans, “Q&A: How UK’s seventh carbon budget will deliver ‘£865bn’ in economic benefits,” Carbon Brief, June 3, 2026.

Electrify Now

Press release: “Governments' Joint Statement on the launch of Electrify Now,” European Union, June 22, 2026.

Press release: “The age of electricity has arrived,” Electrify Now, June 23, 2026. 

The American Century is over and the Asian Century is rising rapidly. But much of the Western policy establishment still hasn’t noticed.

Show notes

Episode 238 – Transition in Europe 2024, Energy Transition Show, December 4, 2024.  

Daan Walter, Sam Butler-Sloss, Antoine Issac, Kingsmill Bond, and Aditya Lolla, Electric Asia, Ember, June 11, 2026. 

Kenneth Pomeranz, The Great Divergence: China, Europe, and the Making of the Modern World Economy, Princeton University Press, 2000.

Jan Rosenow, “Pakistan: the solar revolution nobody planned,” Bright Spots, June 7, 2026. 

South Africa 2025, Energy Transition Show.

Allan Olingo, “Renewable energy is overtaking traditional power projects across Africa, industry leaders say,” Associated Press, May 26, 2026.

Nqobile Dludla, “Facing global headwinds, Chinese automakers make a play for Africa,” Reuters, June 26, 2025.

Njenga Hakeenah, “As Chinese Solar Manufacturing Emerges Across Africa, Trade Pressures Threaten Expansion,” China Global South Project, May 18, 2026.

Noah Berman, “China’s Solar Industry Follows the Sun to Africa,” The Wire China, April 5, 2026.

Sebastian Ibold post, LinkedIn, 2025.

“Rwanda’s Ampersand partners BYD to tap Africa’s $5bn motorcycle market,” Daba Finance, June 20, 2024.

Chan Ho-Him, “China car exports jump 73% in May as high fuel prices raise interest in EVs,” Associated Press, June 10, 2026. 

Javier Blas, “Ten Reasons Oil Is Still Below $100 a Barrel,” Bloomberg, June 10, 2026 .

Aaron Blake, “How many times has Trump claimed an Iran deal is around the corner?” CNN, June 9, 2026. 

“Only 11% of Europeans view US as ally, survey shows,” Reuters, June 10, 2026.

John Eligon and Zimasa Matiwane, “South African President Talks Trump, Racism and That Oval Office ‘Ambush’,” The New York Times, March 5, 2026.

Nqobile Dludla, “China's Chery aims for 2027 start at newly acquired South Africa plant,” Reuters, March 31, 2026.

Andrea Shalal, “Trump's attacks on Europe's leaders worsen transatlantic frost,” Reuters, May 1, 2026.

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is suddenly vogue again. But its business case is as bad as it’s ever been. So why now? 

Show notes

Nicola Clarke, “383 million tonnes of CO2 permanently stored underground, a new report shows,” IEAGHG, November 17, 2025.

Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage, IEA.

Myles McCormick and Amanda Chu, “Can Exxon build the world’s biggest carbon capture business?,” Financial Times, May 25, 2026.

Nicole Kaeding, “Admitting FutureGen’s Failure,” Cato Institute, February 10, 2015.

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“The False Promise and Potential Health Harms of Carbon Dioxide Enhanced Oil Recovery (CO2 EOR) as a Tool of Climate Mitigation,” Science and Environmental Health Network and Bold Alliance, August 2024. 

Richard H. Worden, Mike Stephenson, and Jon Gluyas, “Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) in Saline Aquifers versus Depleted Gas Fields”, Geosciences, 2024, Vol. 14, Article 146. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences14060146

Philip S. Ringrose and Mark A. Meckel, “Storage of Carbon Dioxide in Saline Aquifers”, Annual Review of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, 2021, Vol. 12, 157–184. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-chembioeng-093020-091447

Yingqi Zhang and colleagues, “The feasibility of reaching gigatonne scale CO2 storage by mid-century”, Nature Communications, 2024, Vol. 15, Article 7608. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-51860-4

Press release: “Carbon TerraVault Provides First Quarter 2026 Update,” Carbon TerraVault, LLC, May 5, 2026.

Yufei Li and Eric Wright, “2026 CCUS: Navigating the tides of the great realignment,” S&P Global Commodity Insights, April 14, 2026.

Yamini Kalia in ​Bengaluru and Stephanie Kelly, “BP to sell stakes in flagship UK carbon capture projects in Northern England,” Reuters, May 2, 2026.

Stella Yotova, “What’s Next for Carbon Capture, Utilization & Storage (CCUS) in 2026?,” Carbon Herald, January 13, 2026. 

Bidattul Syirat Zainal, I.M.R. Fattah, Hwai Chyuan Ong, Oki Muraza, Normaniza Osman, and T.M. Indra Mahlia, “Recent advancements and assessment of carbon capture technologies for climate crisis mitigation,” Chemical Engineering Journal, Vol. 536, Article 175776, May 15, 2026.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cej.2026.175776

Live Carbon Prices Today, CarbonCredits.com

M.H. Rasool, “Carbon capture and storage: An evidence-based review of its effectiveness, sustainability and strategic role in climate mitigation”, Petroleum Research, 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ptlrs.2025.05.002

We’ve been told that we have to accept data centers being located in our communities and on our grids, and to suffer higher grid power costs and noise and disruption, and that the emissions from the data centers’ power plants are no big deal. But before we grant them social license to do those things, we ought to seriously consider our social priorities.

Show notes

“Tucson Project Blue: data centres lie about water again,” Pivot to AI, YouTube, May 20, 2026.

B. ‘Toastie’ Oaster, “Green colonialism is flooding the Pacific Northwest,” High Country News, February 28, 2023.

Alex Baumhardt, “‘Going green now for who?’ Yakama protest clean energy project on sacred site to power data center,” Oregon Capital Chronicle, May 25, 2026.

“Powering the AI Boom,” Bloomberg Tech: Asia, January 23, 2026. [YouTube]

Todd DePastino, “The Domino Theory in Retrospect,” Veterans Breakfast Club, October 4, 2025. 

Patricia Kirk, “Builders of the Boom: Top 10 Data Center Developers,” Commercial Property Executive, November 19, 2025.

Ben Craske, “Top 10: Fastest Growing Data Centre Companies,” Data Centre Magazine, February 18, 2026.

Christopher Gannatti, “The Real Estate Beneath the Revolution: Why Data Centers Deserve a Closer Look,” WisdomTree, May 15, 2025.

Jake Zuckerman, “Ohio data center tax break cost $1.4 billion more than expected in 2025,” Signal Ohio, May 21, 2026.

Paul Kedrosky, “Data Centers: More Money, Fewer Buyers,” PaulKedrosky.com, September 29, 2025.

Paul Kedrosky, “Data Center Operators are Cheerily Uneasy About the Future,” PaulKedrosky.com, Nov 24, 2025.

Paul Kedrosky, “Chart of the Day: Data Centers Driving Commercial Electrical Demand Past Residential,” PaulKedrosky.com, May 19, 2026.

“This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst,” Plain English with Derek Thompson, Spotify, September 23, 2025.

Episode 226 – Load Growth Shenanigans, Energy Transition Show, June 12, 2024.

Miguel Yañez-Barnuevo, “Communities Are Raising Noise Pollution Concerns About Data Centers,” EESI, March 23, 2026.

MAATTR, “Substitutionary Atonement,” Natural Capital Trader, May 08, 2026.

Nicola Clarke, “383 million tonnes of CO2 permanently stored underground, a new report shows,” IEAGHG, November 17, 2025.

Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage, IEA.

Myles McCormick and Amanda Chu, “Can Exxon build the world’s biggest carbon capture business?,” Financial Times, May 25, 2026.

Tianqi Xiao, Francesco Fuso Nerini, H. Damon Matthews, Massimo Tavoni, and Fengqi You, “Environmental impact and net-zero pathways for sustainable artificial intelligence servers in the USA”, Nature Sustainability, 2025, Vol. 8, 1541–1553. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-025-01681-y.  

Zhicong Fang, Boyu Zhang, Jin Shang, and Jiaze Ma, “Recasting AI Data Centers as Engines for Carbon Removal,” arXiv, May 13, 2026.

Amanda Stephenson, “Carney announces Alberta carbon pricing deal that may pave path for new oil pipeline,” Reuters, May 15, 2026.

“Carbon TerraVault Provides First Quarter 2026 Update,” Business Wire, May 14, 2026.

Yufei Li and Eric Wright, “2026 CCUS: Navigating the tides of the great realignment,” S&P Global Commodity Insights, April 14, 2026.

Press release: “Carbon TerraVault Provides First Quarter 2026 Update,” Carbon TerraVault, LLC, May 5, 2026.

Ron Bousso, “BP to scale back stakes in UK carbon capture projects”, Reuters, May 2, 2026.

Stella Yotova, “What’s Next for Carbon Capture, Utilization & Storage (CCUS) in 2026?,” Carbon Herald, January 13, 2026. 

“9 Listed Companies Developing Small Modular Reactors,” Green Stocks Research, April 9, 2026.

Vincent Shaw, “China adds 315 GW of solar in 2025,” PV Magazine, January 28, 2026.

Khasay Hashimov, “The Trillion-Dollar IPO Test: SpaceX and OpenAI Face Public Markets,” Investing.com, May 21, 2026.

Quirino Mealha, “The rapid...

The Jevons Paradox explained how an effort to reduce energy consumption could actually result in increasing it. The Trump Paradox explains how an effort to kill the energy transition is actually accelerating it.

Show notes

Wikipedia contributors, “Jevons paradox”, Wikipedia, accessed May 13, 2026.

Energy Transition Show, “Episode 269: Trump’s war on the energy transition”, Energy Transition Show, 2026.

Javier Blas, “Iran war: China’s invisible hand is rebalancing the oil market”, Bloomberg Opinion, May 8, 2026.

Alex Longley, “Top traders say billion-barrel oil shock to echo long after war”, Bloomberg, April 21, 2026.

Associated Press staff, “Europe has maybe 6 weeks of jet fuel left, energy agency head tells AP”, Associated Press, 2026.

Spencer Kimball, “Exxon CEO says oil market hasn’t felt full impact of Iran war disruption”, CNBC, May 1, 2026.

Christopher Clack, “LinkedIn post of May 4 on energy markets, food security, and inflation”, LinkedIn, May 4, 2026.

OECD (via Windfair), “Inflation and energy prices data referenced by OECD”, Windfair, 2026.

Justin Gerdes, “Trump’s Iran war is driving politicians and consumers to embrace clean energy”, Quitting Carbon, 2026.

Transition Away Conference, “First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels”, Transition Away Conference, 2026.

Financial Times, “Countries explore trade measures to move away from fossil fuels”, Financial Times, 2026.

Reuters staff, “France unveils fossil fuel exit plan at Colombia climate summit”, Bloomberg, April 29, 2026.

Financial Times, “South Korea commits to faster renewable energy expansion”, Financial Times, May 5, 2026.

Damian Carrington, “Electric car sales surge across Europe amid high petrol prices”, The Guardian, April 20, 2026.

Ali Ahmed, “Soaring costs drive Pakistan to EVs”, The Express Tribune, 2026.

Peter Campbell, “Spencer Dale: energy security and the limits of the transition”, Financial Times, May 5, 2026.

Lauri Myllyvirta, “Lots of questions and muddled thinking about coal and the energy transition”, LinkedIn, March 12, 2026.

Simon Stiell, “UN climate chief: an immense irony is unfolding – fossil fuel proponents inadvertently supercharging renewables”, UNFCCC, 2026.

Missy Ryan, Karen DeYoung, and Dan Lamothe, “U.S. intelligence assessment says Iran can sustain conflict longer than expected”, The Washington Post, May 7, 2026.

In this audio version of Nelder Notes #1, we give listeners some ideas on how to reduce their personal exposure to the costs and risks of the global energy crisis stemming from the 2026 war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Links
Sam Meredith, “Oil markets are underestimating the risk of fuel shortages from Iran war, IEA chief warns”, CNBC, April 23, 2026.

BadAss Work Gear, “List of Products Made from Oil (Petroleum)”, BadAss Work Gear, October 30, 2023.

Or From The Rabbit Hole, “The Real Reason Modern Civilization Depends on Petrochemicals”, Of Two Minds / Of The Rabbit Hole Blog, 2026.

Andrew Gregory, “NHS on high alert over healthcare shortages linked to Iran war petrochemical disruption”, The Guardian, April 26, 2026.