Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has decisively lost his Knesset majority following the exit of the two major ultra-Orthodox parties that were pillars of his coalition, which now holds only 49 seats in the 120-member parliament. 

But celebration is premature for those hoping for swift elections that could lead to the end of his rule, warns Haaretz columnist and political strategist Dr. Dahlia Scheindlin on the Haaretz Podcast. 

The ultra-Orthodox may have left the government in a “very demonstrative way, but if they don't actually join a vote that would bring down the government and launch early elections, it doesn't really matter,” Scheindlin said. 

As the Knesset enters its summer recess with a minority in power, only reconvening in October, “their exit from the coalition is essentially a matter of holding a political sword over the head of Netanyahu, over the government's head, saying ‘we are poised to bring down this government now and launch early elections’“ – but elections are far from a certainty. 

What is becoming increasingly certain for most Israelis, Scheindlin told podcast host Allison Kaplan Sommer, is the fact that the government has “made it extremely clear that its political interests override the good of the state” by doing everything in its power to advance the law the ultra-Orthodox are pressuring them to pass, exempting Haredi men from military service at a time when the country needs manpower more desperately than ever. 

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Read more from Dahlia Schiendlin in Haaretz:

Bolting Parties, Baffling Polls: Are Elections in Israel Imminent? What Are Netanyahu's Chances of Winning?

Netanyahu's Trial Is a Seductive Spectacle. But Dead Gazan Children Matter Far More

Netanyahu Should End the Gaza War Now – for His Own Sake, if Not for Israel's

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