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It is best not to believe an exit poll, or even a range of exit polls, entirely. The results in the last three parliamentary elections have shown that exit pollsters, predominantly, have got the numbers wrong. In 2009 and 2014, they managed to get the direction right, but were largely far from the numbers and did not predict a simple majority for the BJP in 2014 (except Chankya in 2014).

Having declared that red herring, IF the 2019 exit poll results were to hold on 23 May, then, at a national level, it will be a body blow to regional parties and the Congress.

The numbers come as a shocker, not because they predict a return of the BJP and Narendra Modi, but because they predict that the existing NDA, by itself, may cross the 300 seat mark, and have a clear majority.

This would mean not just a return of Narendra Modi to power, but a strong Modi to power.

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An assortment of exit poll data, including grossly unscientific ‘mean’ figures in the so-called ‘poll of polls’, has been put on the table. Till actual counting on 23 May – people will, depending on their political orientation and which pollster they decide to go with – rejoice or grieve.

As per CVoter, the Congress-led UPA is projected to get 128 seats, while the BJP-led NDA could bring in a total of 287. The Congress by itself is projected to get 80 seats, while BJP alone is projected to win 236 seats.

The Mahagathbandhan looks set to grab 40 seats, while the TMC in Bengal is set to get 29 seats. 

However, given the inconsistent track record of pollsters over several elections, exit polls at best, give only a general sense of the direction India is heading in. At worst, they could have got everything wrong. 

It is obvious that much depends on the final tally. It would determine equations among parties, and decide who gets to sit with who in the Treasury Benches in Parliament, or are relegated to the Opposition rows. At this stage thereby, several scenarios are in store, and it is worth examining these, as India's social, economic and political future will vary, based on which of these possibilities become reality.

In random order, let us take the most talked-about post-poll scenario in the run-up to the long, cacophonous, bordering on loutish, electoral campaign.

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The Modi wave hasn’t just swept the nation. It has also birthed awkward silences among colleagues, broken friendships and caused heated arguments in family get-togethers.

According to many people – especially from Hindu families – who oppose the divisive and communal rule of the BJP, it has become impossible to have conversations with family members who are staunch supporters of the BJP government, and Narendra Modi in particular.

Listen to the full story here!

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Almost all exit polls have predicted a BJP-led NDA sweep of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. But, each poll predicts a different number, and by a fairly wide margin.

On this edition of Chunav Tracker, Sanjay Pugalia explains why the landslide victory predictions for the NDA might need a closer look.

On 23 May, the day of reckoning, who will form the next government? Listen to the podcast for the whole analysis.

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