Briefly in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate on Wednesday, December 3:

* The Government has effectively reneged on New Zealand’s Paris Agreement commitment to halve our climate emissions by 2030 from 2005 levels, or buy emissions credits offshore.

* Until now, the Government has left the impression it might spend billions on credits offshore if its first choice of reducing domestic emissions failed, albeit without enough certainty for Treasury to specify a contingent liability in the Crown Accounts. The suspicion was always that the Government would renege, which the Treasury knew or assumed, due to its decision on the liability.

* Yesterday Finance Minister Nicola Willis ruled out buying credits offshore, which are now needed given the Government has rolled back a range of emissions reductions policies over the last two years.

* Meanwhile, Standard & Poors warned the Government last night that its rates cap on councils could cause credit rating downgrades, which would make it harder and more expensive for councils to borrow to fund the infrastructure the Government wants built.

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Willis reneges on Paris climate deal in plain sight

Finance Minister Nicola Willis yesterday effectively reneged on New Zealand’s commitments under the Paris agreement to cut our climate emissions by 50% from 2005 levels by 2030, telling MPs and reporters in Parliament yesterday that the Government simply would not pay.

She just came out and said it: ‘No, New Zealand wouldn’t pay to buy the billions of dollars worth of overseas emissions credits now needed.’

There have been hints and prevarications that New Zealand would renege on the deal from various lower ranked ministers, including Trade Minister Todd McClay and Deputy PM and ACT Leader David Seymour. But there had never been an unequivocal rejection of the need to buy credits overseas. Climate Change Minister Simon Watts has always been careful to say he didn’t want to buy credits, but hoped another way could be found, including further reducing domestic emissions.

That internally inconsistent message ended yesterday.

Speaking to reporters in Parliament, Willis said former climate minister James Shaw signed New Zealand up to an “extravagant” Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). She was then asked if New Zealand would buy credits offshore.

“Look, the Prime Minister, me, the climate change minister, have said again and again that we do not think it’s in New Zealanders’ best interest to send checks for billions of dollars offshore. New Zealanders who are struggling to put food on the table are not going to thank us for having a performative awards ceremony after we write billion-dollar cheques to other countries to meet a Paris target that James Shaw set. No, that’s not our priority.” Nicola Willis speaking to reporters via Newsroom

The exchange came after Green Co-Leader Chloe Swarbrick challenged Willis and Treasury in the committee hearing on why Treasury had not accounted for the emissions credits as a likely liability in the Crown Accounts.

‘The maths do not maths’

Swarbrick told RNZ afterwards it was “wishful thinking” that New Zealand could remain committed to Paris without buying carbon credits.

“We are potentially on the hook for tens of billions of dollars, and all [Willis] can say is we’re not going to to send those tens of billions of dollars offshore, which then begs the question of how we’re going to meet our [commitment] as the government is domestically shredding climate action here at home.

“The maths do not maths. You cannot have it both ways.” Chloe Swarbrick via RNZ

The Daily Chart Pack:

In the economy, OECD sees NZ GDP growth at the bottom of the pack…

…with unemployment still at 5.0% in election year…

…with growth much slower than Treasury’s May Budget forecasts.

In politics, the Roy Morgan poll sees the Govt improving…

…but the right track/wrong track rating still lags consumer confidence.

My Pick n’ Mix of links elsewhere

* Deep-dive by Farah Hancock for RNZ: How many of the government’s 9 key targets has it achieved?

* Deep-dive by Toby Manhire for The Spinoff: Juggernaut 2: The seven generations fight. ‘The unlikely story of a landmark decade in Treaty settlements.’

* NZ Herald: Cost-of-living pressures driving more middle and high income earners to seek financial help

* Bernard Orsman & Tom Rose for NZ Herald: Funding squeeze: Rates cap row puts CRL and ferries in the firing line

* Ellen O’Dwyer for RNZ: Critics launch campaign against second Mt Vic tunnel

* Deep-dive by Nick Carey for Reuters: China floods the world with gasoline cars it can’t sell at home.

* Scoop by Derek Cheng for NZ Herald-$: Government ponders overturning court ruling, saving billions in veterans’ support payments

Cartoon: Seymour’s Kitchen Rule: ‘Eat your greens…’

Timeline-cleansing nature pic:

Ka kite ano

Bernard

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