One game can bend a season, and tonight’s Game 5 in Milwaukee carries exactly that weight. We break down why the Cubs own the opening edge, starting with Drew Pomeranz as an opener against a right-left Brewers lineup that doesn’t love to be shuffled. Pomeranz has lived on the black all series, stealing timing and limiting hard contact, which forces Milwaukee to either re-sequence around Christian Yelich and William Contreras or live with a tougher first look. That early discomfort matters, because Jacob Mizerowski’s profile screams volatility—huge fastball, inconsistent breaker, and adrenaline that can turn counts into traffic if we stay stubborn in the zone.

We also dig into the Brewers’ bullpen math. Pat Murphy’s usage has left Ashby and Koenig overexposed while keeping Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill strangely underdeployed or mis-timed. That creates a timing trap: if Milwaukee saves their best for a lead, Chicago can punch first and tax the bridge; if they spend early to stem a rally, their ninth gets thinner. On our side, a clean script—Pomeranz for a frame or two, Palencia’s swing-and-miss in the middle, Keller/Thielbar to shape pockets, and Kittridge for poise in leverage—lets us cover six to seven innings without mortgaging the endgame. The key is plate discipline in the first two innings to inflate pitches and force decisions the Brewers don’t want to make.

We keep the lineup steady because it’s working. Michael Busch setting table, Nico Horner in control, Ian Happ’s timing returning, and Seiya Suzuki better when he’s in the field create a balanced threat without panic moves. The bat to watch is Dansby Swanson: his path matches four-seam life, and in a tight, defensive grind, one heater he can lift may swing everything. Win early, and the leverage tilts our way; drift to the seventh without forcing Uribe or Megill, and the edge flips back to Milwaukee. Margins decide October, and we lay out where to find them—discipline, sequencing, and the quiet confidence to let their volatility beat itself.

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Thanks for tuning in!

- Carl & Mahoney