True North Podcast

No Days Off | True North Podcast | Ep. 38

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🧭 MSTR True North episode 38: Soleil & Dan breakdown Strategy’s credit stack, BTC accumulation strategy, preferreds, rate risk, and AI macro themes dissected. Topics also include Strike, Strife, Stretch, MSTR mNAV, BTC vs gold, and Fed policy. 🎛️ As of this recording, 8/27/25, Strategy's (MSTR) performance:

  • Open: $348.68
  • Close: $342.06
  • Volume: 8,379,611 shares
  • mNAV: 1.56
  • Market Cap: ~97.36B
  • U.S. Market Cap Ranking: 108
  • BTC: 632,457
    • ⏱️ TIMESTAMPS & INSIGHTS:
  • 00:00:00 - Intro: filtering out the noise and providing signal
  • 00:03:19 - Macro Indicators: Services PMI ties to BTC moves
  • 00:05:42 - Spot BTC Positioning: Low leverage, resilient long-term strategy
  • 00:12:25 - Duration gap: whats the next pref flavor to fill the gap
  • 00:14:23 - Labor Market & Fed Pivot: Weak payrolls, yield curve, rate cut setup
  • 00:18:55- AI’s attack on jobs: Bitcoin is the only way to capture the deflationary effects
  • 00:22:12 - Inflation Outlook & Fed: Tariffs, base case, policy shift
  • 00:25:38 - Bitcoin vs Gold Thesis: BTC outperformance, gold lag on inflation
  • 00:30:07 - MNAVs & Fear Index: Sentiment tools, credit signals, BTC risk
  • 00:33:17 - Stretch Yield Mechanics: Monthly coupon, par targeting strategy
  • 00:37:40 - S&P 500 Inclusion Odds: Market betting, mispriced probabilities
  • 00:40:33 - BTC Valuation Frameworks: Minor breakevens, long-dated call logic
  • 00:43:46 - MSTR Capital Forecast: Preferreds, ATM issuance, $175B growth thesis
    • SOCIAL MEDIA:
  • X: https://x.com/PunterJeff
  • X: https://x.com/BenWerkman
  • X: https://x.com/nithusezni
  • X: https://x.com/TimKotzman
  • X: https://x.com/Z06Z07
  • X: https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris
  • X: https://x.com/RealTrollstein
  • X: https://x.com/MasonFoard
  • X: https://x.com/hillery_dan
  • X: https://x.com/JBerneburg
  • X: https://x.com/TheJesseMK
  • X: https://x.com/thebitcoingal
    • MSTR TRUE NORTH LINKS:
  • True North Website: https://www.mstrtruenorth.com
  • X: https://x.com/MSTRTrueNorth
  • đź›’ MERCH: https://thehodlshop.com/collections/t...
  • Youtube: @MSTRTrueNorth
    • MSTR Links:
  • https://www.mstr-tracker.com
  • https://saylortracker.com/
  • https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/MSTR/
  • https://www.strategy.com/
    • Disclaimer: The content in this video is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. We are not financial advisors, and you should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. All investments involve risks, and you are responsible for your own decisions.
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