Shares of US tech giants are rallying this morning after Canada announced plans to suspend payments on the Digital Services Tax, which was a point of contention in trade negotiations between the US and Canada. Elsewhere, Chinese home sales are down double digits vs a year ago once again as the years-long real estate crisis continues to weigh on the Chinese economy.

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The US and China have formally agreed to terms from the trade talks held in Geneva earlier this month which should result in a de-escalation in the trade war that erupted in April. Elsewhere PCE data released this morning is showing prices continue to rise more than expected with personal income unexpectedly dropping.

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The DXY has fallen below 98 to it's lowest level since early 2022, before the Fed began it's quantitative tightening campaign. President Trump is now teasing an early announcement of a replacement for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who's term ends in May of next year. Such an early announcement would undermine Powell to a certain extent and cause a dovish shift in expectations for monetary policy.

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The S&P500 is within just a few points of it's all time high this morning despite Fedex reminding us that there is still a trade war going on. Meanwhile it appears San Francisco might soon be holding NYC's Beer as a Socialist just won the Democratic Primary for Mayor.

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The price of oil fell sharply yesterday afternoon following a symbolic Iranian retaliation for the US bombing of it's nuclear facilities that signaled there would be no further escalation in the conflict. Shortly after that, a ceasefire was declared between all parties involved. But the peace is already hanging by a thread just hours after the ceasefire took effect.

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Stocks are flat and even up a bit this morning following the high profile US bombing of Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend.

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Gold and silver are selling off this morning, with silver seeing particularly strong selling. Meanwhile the US national debt has topped $37 trillion, surprising no one, and elected officials continue to sabotage the nations finances without relent.

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The Federal Reserve is widely expected to do nothing this afternoon, but markets are looking for clues as to the central banks plans for later this year. Meanwhile Congress and bank regulators are both trying to pump bond market liquidity via other means such as the SLR and stablecoin legislation.

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Oil traders were spooked last night when reports of several ships burning in The Strait of Hormuz were circulating, raising fears of further economic escalation in the Israeli/Iranian war. Meanwhile solar stocks are getting hammered this morning after the Senate version of the Big Beautiful Bill was released last night showing subsidies for Wind and Solar, passed under the Inflation Reduction Act, were being cut.

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Despite a weekend of intense airstrikes and missile barrages exchanged between Israel and Iran, stocks are higher this morning and oil prices are down. So why is the market yawning in the face of the worst middle east violence in years?

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