Firstly to focus on nomad dollars and sense in Part2 we’re going to be talking about leading economic indicators. Details in Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102. For references to details in this podcast listen to Part1 of this series and Bob Davis Podcast 1069.

Secondly I use a few numbers.

Therefore I’ll be posting a series of links to the data and charts for that data here.

Because we all know charts often make raw numbers a little clearer.

However listeners and subscribers should know I’ve worked very hard to keep from just reciting numbers.

That is to say that where ever time permits in Nomad-Dollars-Sense-Part2-Bob Davis Podcast 1102 I’ll explain the context and relevance of an indicator.

Most importantly these leading economic indicators do not suggest a healthy economy.

Certainly things could change to the better…

But for the time being we would all be better served to look beyond the mainstream and main street story.

To begin with here’s a link to the conference board’s leading indicators.

And hours worked by Americans nationally.

Here’s the GDP numbers for the United States.

And the Consumer Price Index.

More importantly when it comes to rents, take a look at the Zillow Rent Index.

Especially relevant here is the fact that thousands of apartments are being built or coming on line at this time.

Moreover while that’s better for renters it’s not good news if you just bought an apartment building.

In addition this is a number which speaks to inflation overall which still shows shelter elevated.

Even more when it comes to inflation the PPI is a better forward indicator of economic growth than the CPI.

To sum up these are just some of the data that suggests we’re moving pretty quickly through the inflation, disinflation and deflation sequence.

Again on consumer and commercial real estate here’s the commercial real estate loan application chart.

As an aside commercial real estate defaults are at a fourteen year high.

And mortgage loan applications are down significantly.

Finally the Case Schiller Home Price Index has been contracting for while and is now dropping. This is the first decline in several years.

Equally important are the manufacturing numbers.

Correspondingly the commodity of oil is not following the rosy predictions of the International Oil Agency.

As an illustration the American Consumer is also not cooperating …corporate profits are in a recession.

Another bell weather is total consumer credit.

And average consumer credit rates are more than 23 percent these days.

Furthermore when it comes to transportation costs the Baltic Dry index for the far east has deteriorated significantly.

Another indicator is Real GDP.

By all means the most important indicator and noteworthy metric is the actual money supply.

Again this is not a robustly healthy economy.

To be sure if it was I wouldn’t have to do this podcast series.

All things considered Doctor Lacy Hunt’s views on the economic cycle are salient. Watch this video.

In conclusion there’s a lot of data to unpack.

But looking closer might be the best thing we can do for ourselves right now.

Sponsored by Ryan Plumbing and Heating of Saint Paul

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