A deep dive into the 2026 job market slowdown, the rise of contractors, and portfolio careers—why companies are cutting headcount and what workers must do next, grounded in Peter Cappelli’s research on financialized labor.

Hi everyone — Yesterday, I went live with economist John Brewton to unpack layoffs, job-loss headlines, and what the data actually measures (plus what to watch for inside your own company). Here are the key takeaways:

* Big layoff numbers often mix “newly laid off” with “still unemployed” (so the scary aggregate total isn’t the same thing as fresh cuts hitting this month).

* Challenger, Gray tracks layoff announcements, not confirmed separations — and announcements can be timed around earnings/stock signaling rather than immediate headcount reduction.

* Public-company layoffs dominate the news cycle, but they’re not the whole labor market; the private/small-business economy drives a lot of job creation.

* A major share of job losses can come from one unusual source (we discussed the outsized impact of federal-related cuts in the current numbers).

* Small businesses “stopping hiring” matters more than most people realize because it’s where a lot of net new jobs typically come from.

* Layoffs have been normalized beyond finance — what used to feel sector-specific now shows up as standard operating procedure across more industries.

* Post-COVID taught companies they could run leaner (and some of today’s “efficiency” push is downstream of those lessons).

* AI is compressing the value of certain production skills (e.g., “deck-making”), while raising expectations for output and breadth.

* The career moat is shifting toward human + cross-functional skill: influence, change management, synthesis, and the ability to operate across domains.

* Early internal warning signs: hiring freezes, blocked backfills, leadership language shifting to “runway/efficiency,” and the classic vibe shift—more closed-door meetings, less transparency, quieter leadership rooms.

If you’re employed and uneasy, this video is a practical lens for separating headlines from signals — and if you’re job searching, it reframes where the real opportunities and risks may be into the future.

If you want us to do more of these, reply with topics you’d like us to cover next.

And thank you Farida Khalaf, Anna Levitt, and many others for tuning into the live video with John Brewton! Join me for my next live video in the Substack app.

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This Labor Day, I spent some time with a small, brown ledger that my great-great-grandfather kept. It’s a working book (ports, ships, wages, weather) written in a neat, no-nonsense cursive hand. Gustav “William” Augusta Hanson was born January 23, 1867, in Karlshamn, Sweden. He didn’t cross the Atlantic in first class; he crossed it as crew, at the age of fifteen, two days after he was confirmed in the Lutheran church. And he’s the last person in my family who immigrated to the United States. A different era, different rules; but the habits—record-keeping, discipline, service—still ring true.