Not Your Advisor

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Today's Stock Markets in under 15 min. No ads. No politics! Easy to follow for your morning coffee, dog walk or commute.

Unlock full episodes and Stock Market content by upgrading: https://www.notyouradvisor.com/subscribe

Premium member benefits:- Exclusive content on every podcast- Paid-only written content- Private chat feed with real time alerts- Stock setups and watch lists- Subscriber chart requests

Substack Featured 3 times! Substack Best Seller list

Recommended by Doomberg, Adam Taggart, Bill Cara and many others.

Today's Stock Markets in under 15 min. No ads. No politics! Easy to follow for your morning coffee, dog walk or commute.

Unlock full episodes and Stock Market content by upgrading: https://www.notyouradvisor.com/subscribe

Premium member benefits:- Exclusive content on every podcast- Paid-only written content- Private chat feed with real time alerts- Stock setups and watch lists- Subscriber chart requests

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Recommended by Doomberg, Adam Taggart, Bill Cara and many others.

In my podcast and writings, I speak about narratives in relation to financial media—earnings, headlines, news, and opinions sold as facts. Even my own content comes with biases and the trappings of my own mind.

It is paramount to attempt to strip out, or at the very least minimize and identify, the fact that this is 100% happening to us all.

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Another aspect I often bring up is having balance in your life and attempting to know yourself better each day, because everything that will make you truly happy, healthy, and allow you to make the most impact is already within you.

Master Shi Heng Yi discusses this concept of not outsourcing your happiness in this video, which I recommend you watch from beginning to end in a quiet space. I hope you take a few nuggets away, or a few threads to begin pulling in your own life.

As I continue on my own spiritual journey of self-discovery, I will continue to share pieces of content that resonate with me in hope of inspiring you!

The Audio Discussion is a synthesis of these two sources:

* Why your mind is so important - Master Shi Heng Yi (YouTube)

* Shoes off in the Trading Room Please! (NotYourAdvisor)

A note about Alphabet’s NotebookLM. I find it to be improving, or my prompts are improving. There are segments where Gemini/NotebookLM inserts suggestions about meditation and breathing exercises, which are not part of either content sources for this piece. While I mostly use NotebookLM to create summaries of large content sources, I find some of the creative freedoms it is displaying to be impressive and entertaining.

Briefing Document: Trading Psychology, Self-Realization, and Overcoming Fear

Overview:

This document synthesizes insights from two seemingly disparate sources: a trading psychology blog post ("Shoes off in the trading room please!") and excerpts from a talk by Shi Heng Yi on self-realization and the importance of the mind. While one focuses on the practicalities of navigating the stock market and the other on broader existential questions, both converge on the importance of mental discipline, emotional detachment, and overcoming fear to achieve success and fulfillment. The key themes are:

* Emotional Detachment: The ability to separate emotions (blame, boasting, shame, ego) from objective reality and outcomes, both in trading and in life.

* Acceptance and Non-Attachment: Recognizing that external events (market fluctuations, life circumstances) are often beyond our control and that true fulfillment comes from within, not from external validation or possessions.

* Overcoming Fear and Uncertainty: Stepping outside one's comfort zone, facing fears, and embracing the unknown as essential components of growth and discovery.

* Self-Awareness and Introspection: Understanding one's patterns of behavior, identifying limiting beliefs, and cultivating a refined awareness of oneself, both internally and externally.

Source 1: "Shoes off in the trading room please! 🥷 - by NYUGrad"

Main Themes:

This blog post emphasizes the critical role of psychology in successful trading. The author argues that emotional baggage and the pursuit of being "right" are detrimental to performance. The core message revolves around detaching emotions from trading outcomes and adopting a more objective, process-oriented mindset.

Key Ideas and Facts:

* Eradicating "Right" and "Wrong": The author asserts that the concepts of "right" and "wrong," along with blame and boasting, must be eradicated from a trader's mindset. "They must be eradicated from your mind if you are to be a successful trader and speculator. Not easy to do but imperative."

* The Tree Analogy: A central analogy compares the market to weather. Losses are like rain, and profits are like sunshine. The tree outside the author's window serves as a metaphor for resilience and non-judgment. The tree "has never blamed anything. The sun, the rain, the dog piss, the noise, all of it. These facets of NYC were not happening TO the tree. They were simply happening." Similarly, market events are not personal attacks but simply occurrences.

* Emotional Consequences: The author warns about the negative impact of emotions on trading: "Feeling wrong (shame) Gives birth to lack of confidence." Conversely, "Feeling right (boastful and ego) If you succeed, being overly boastful, taking glory or feeling right, minimizes the perception of wins, maximizes the agony of defeat. Then analysis paralysis ensues."

* Balanced Confidence: The post advocates for "even" confidence, humility, and continuous learning. The trader should "Learn from both rain and sun."

* Practical Advice: The blog post provides practical trading advice: "Take only Small losses. Let winners run."

* Financial Freedom: "Financial Freedom is not Free. But the pursuit is worth the Treasure!"

Source 2: "Why Your Mind is So Important / What Are You Thinking in the Morning ? - Shi Heng Yi"

Main Themes:

This excerpt explores the root causes of dissatisfaction and the importance of cultivating inner fulfillment, irrespective of external circumstances. It argues that a sense of lack originates from human-constructed ideas about how life should be, rather than from an inherent incompleteness. It addresses the illusions of chasing desires and the value of realization that you already have everything you need.

Key Ideas and Facts:

* Inherent Completeness: The fundamental premise is that individuals are born complete and that the feeling of lack is a learned construct. "God is not putting you in this earth incomplete why would he do that what he's putting on the earth is existence he's granting us existence and afterwards it starts that we have Concepts we start thinking we start having ideas about how this life is supposed to be."

* The Trap of Conditional Happiness: The speaker critiques the pursuit of happiness based on external conditions (possessions, relationships, status). "Everything that at the moment you want to have always when you say I need this in order to Feel Complete I want this in order to Feel Complete then it means your life your satisfaction about life is based on conditions."

* Internal vs. External Locus of Control: The importance of cultivating an internal locus of control is emphasized, particularly in the face of uncontrollable external events (e.g., government restrictions during COVID-19). "Don't base your life satisfaction on circumstances where you have no influence on."

* Non-Attachment to Possessions: While not advocating for renunciation, the speaker warns against over-identification with material possessions. "The problem is how much are you identified with your possessions."

* Facing Fear and Uncertainty: The excerpt highlights the importance of stepping outside one's comfort zone to discover one's full potential. "The more fearful you are the more you're going to stay where you are the less fearful you are the more you're going to expand the more you're going to discover."

* Self-Refinement and Awareness: You must ask yourself "how much did it serve you the way of thinkinking until now and how much also did it limit you"

* Overcoming Fear: "Are you living your life based on fear or not and this fear is not helpful because it restricts you"

Synthesis and Implications:

While one source addresses trading and the other more general self-help, there are some very helpful overlaps.

Both sources underscore the importance of emotional regulation and objectivity. In trading, this translates to detaching from individual trade outcomes and focusing on a disciplined process. In life, it means not basing one's happiness on external conditions and recognizing the inherent value of existence. Overcoming fear and embracing uncertainty are also common themes. Both sources advocate for a willingness to step outside one's comfort zone, whether it's trying a new trading strategy or challenging deeply held beliefs. Finally, both emphasize the importance of self-awareness and introspection. Traders need to understand their emotional triggers and biases, while individuals seeking fulfillment need to examine their patterns of behavior and limiting beliefs.

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50 min audio discussion is generated by NotebookLM AI. All chart analysis is by me, a real human.

Introduction to the company

Um…its Nike. But if I must, let’s Do It ✔ :

NIKE, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, marketing, and sale of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories, and services worldwide. The company provides athletic and casual footwear, apparel, and accessories under the NIKE, Jumpman, Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell trademarks. It also sells a line of performance equipment and accessories comprising bags, sport balls, socks, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, protective equipment, and other equipment for sports activities under the NIKE brand; and various plastic products to other manufacturers.

Today's Stock Markets in under 15 min. No ads. No politics! Easy to follow for your morning coffee, dog walk or commute.

Unlock full episodes and Stock Market content by upgrading: https://www.notyouradvisor.com/subscribe

Premium member benefits:- Exclusive content on every podcast- Paid-only written content- Private chat feed with real time alerts- Stock setups and watch lists- Subscriber chart requests

Substack Featured 3 times! Substack Best Seller list

Recommended by Doomberg, Adam Taggart, Bill Cara and many others.

Today's Stock Markets in under 15 min. No ads. No politics! Easy to follow for your morning coffee, dog walk or commute.

Unlock full episodes and Stock Market content by upgrading: https://www.notyouradvisor.com/subscribe

Premium member benefits:- Exclusive content on every podcast- Paid-only written content- Private chat feed with real time alerts- Stock setups and watch lists- Subscriber chart requests

Substack Featured 3 times! Substack Best Seller list

Recommended by Doomberg, Adam Taggart, Bill Cara and many others.

-Foreword-

If you have been following my work, you already know I attribute a lot of my learning to Bill Cara and his work. He is relaunching an extensive Weekly report that covers the entirety of the market, and it is over 300 pages long with institutional level insight with a macro lens on the global machine that is the “Market”.

When Bill used to publish these weekly reports starting in 2013 I initially understood a very small percentage of the report. I slowly began to chip away and tried to learn and much as I could week to week, researching the topics I did not understand. I then began to question him and do my own research on why Bill said certain things or why he was focusing on a particular piece of the jigsaw puzzle.

Here is the latest AI generated podcast that summarizes the full report. At over 300 pages this macro view of the global markets is institutional level content and eventually will be for paying subscribers only.

Download this weeks full report at notyouradvisor.com

(Audio Discussion generated by NotebookLM)

The source for NotebookLM1. The below content written and analyzed all by my human self2. RCA, NIFTY FIFTY, AOL and FANGs. July 6, 2020 | François Sicart

Let’s go on a thought experiment journey together.

Who is tired of hearing about the Jevons paradox? 🙋‍♂️

Stick with it one more time because I have not seen it presented this way anywhere else. Probably because no one is crazy enough or they didn't live through the dot-com boom bust. Well I am and I have.

What is Jevons paradox? (Wiki)

In a nutshell, it states that an increase in efficiency in using a resource leads to increased use of that resource, rather than to a reduction.

Items or services that go from inaccessible to ubiquity, where the efficiency, cost and or access improves exponentially.

Few examples:

* Commercial airlines

* Cell phones

* Personal Computers

* Cars powered by Petrol

* Then EV Cars

* The Internet

* Televisions

* The electricity grid

All this talk about Jevons paradox in context that DeepSeek is somehow great for legacy tech co’s like Nvidia got me thinking.

Ok, what if January 20, 2025 DeepSeek R1 day was the ignition of giving anyone with internet connection, or under funded businesses who can’t afford data centers and GPUs, to have access to advanced AI.

Similar ignitions have happened before, so how did those companies and stocks perform in the past while going through a period of Jevons Paradox?

Let’s time travel to the launch of the iPhone 1 and 3G/4G, offering mobile computing to the world.

Who remembers watching this keynote on Jan 9, 2007?

“It’s an iPod, it’s a phone, and an internet communicator” RIP Steve Jobs

Let’s take a look at T-Mobile stock through three mobile industry milestones. I chose TMUS randomly amongst its peers.

Shaded areas

* iPhone brings computing to your pocket

* Then 3G and 4G bring higher data speeds

* 5G enables super fast seamless data anywhere for even lower prices

No one today has a dumb phone anymore. We simply have become phone dumb. We can’t live without them. It is an appendage to our body.

2006

Today

If the DeepSeek moment truly was akin to the Internet expansion or the mobile smartphone expansion, we may see NVDA and its peers repeat history, where the pioneers are all flushed out.

After the iPhone launch, T-Mobile went from $50 to $7. Counter intuitive huh? Then rallied and crashed to $7 again, before it marched to 5G and beyond.

Peak to trough, TMUS fell 86%, then rose more than 3,333%.

Linear Chart

What if history rhymes?

I neatly fit the NVDA lifetime chart into the same period of TMUS fall after the iPhone launch for your imagination’s pleasure.

If the performance rings true, NVDA would go to $17. Then march to $566.

Internet Expansion

How about the dot-com boom and bust? That surely was a period of massive change and the Jevons Paradox is applicable. You could easily argue that CSCO was the NVDA of that era, selling shovels to tech co’s becoming dot com companies.

Nvidia

Dot-com low = $0.06 cents!

Huh? How you ask? Since its initial public offering (IPO) in January 1999, Nvidia has undergone six forward splits:

June 2000: 2-for-1 stock split.

September 2001: 2-for-1.

April 2006: 2-for-1.

September 2007: 3-for-2.

July 2021: 4-for-1.

June 2024: 10-for-1.

And NVIDIA has already grown faster than any company. Also owns the two largest 1 day draw downs in stock market history the past few months!

10Y Return 26,000%

15Y Return 34,000%

20Y Return 65,000%

MEh that was just T-Mobile you say and only 1 company during the dot com boom bust you say?

Lets look at Amazon’s chart. The low in October 2001 was 28 cents after the dot com crash, with all the splits through today’s price!

Amazon

fell 95% from peak to trough

If you bottom ticked the low you would be up 14,900% today

Dot-com low = $0.28 cents!

15Y Return 3,800%

20Y Return 12,500%

Microsoft

fell 66% from peak to trough

If you bottom ticked the low you would be up 3,200% today

Dot com low = $12.45

15Y Return 1,800%

20Y Return 2,100%

But not everyone won the Jevons paradox lottery.

Cisco Systems

CSCO fell 90% from peak to trough

Took 19 years to break even if you held from the top

If you bottom ticked the low you would be up 1,075% today, 23 years later

Dot-com low = $5.38

15Y Return 299.86%

20Y Return 415.14%

Even Worse…

Intel INTC 😭

fell 82% from peak to trough

Took 18 years to break even if you held from the top

If you bottom ticked the low you would be up 152% today, 23 years later

Dot-com low = $7.43

15Y Return 51%

20Y Return 40%

Meh this was a one time thing that happened only in the 2000s. Right?

Take a look at RCA in 1929 vs AOL’s draw down.

“Investors in RCA at the top of the 1929 speculative boom were right about radio’s fundamentals: the number of households with radio sets grew from 2.75 million in 1925 to 10.25 million in 1929 and, through the Great Depression, to 27.5 million in 1939. But the investors were wrong about RCA’s stock price. As we see in the chart below, included in a November 2002 follow-up paper, the fate of AOL’s stock following the 1990s dot.com boom was not very different.”

Source: Sicart Associates

Conclusion

Maybe the next winners won't even include NVDA and it becomes the next Cisco or Intel.

Maybe the winners are the same as before, after another UNTHINKABLE drawdown via AMZN, MSFT, and GOOGL.

Or maybe AAPL buys Tesla and xAi?

Or Amazon buys Palantir and OpenAI?

Now you are ready! Next time you hear “Jevons Paradox” on Finance TV while someone is touting AI, but without talking about the drawdown risks that have precedent in history, just roll your eyes.

Homework Assignment:

Sit where you are reading this. Take a deep breath and blink…

When you opened your eyes, the future became the past.

Sometimes they look familiar.

Good luck and enjoy your weekend! 🥷🤞

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Today's Stock Markets in under 15 min. No ads. No politics! Easy to follow for your morning coffee, dog walk or commute.

Unlock full episodes and Stock Market content by upgrading: https://www.notyouradvisor.com/subscribe

Premium member benefits:- Exclusive content on every podcast- Paid-only written content- Private chat feed with real time alerts- Stock setups and watch lists- Subscriber chart requests

Substack Featured 3 times! Substack Best Seller list

Recommended by Doomberg, Adam Taggart, Bill Cara and many others.