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NVIDIA Just Beat for the 18th Time, Why Did the Stock Barely Move?
Michele Steele sits down with longtime tech analyst Michael Parekh to break down NVIDIA's latest earnings — $81.6 billion in revenue, 85% growth with guidance for 95% next quarter, and the 18th consecutive quarter of beating expectations. Yet the stock barely moved. Why?
Michael walks through the bull case piece by piece: 75% GAAP margins, a freshly hiked dividend (from one cent to 25 cents), an $80 billion buyback, and a valuation that's still only ~27x for a business growing 85–95%. The Blackwell-to-Vera Rubin chip transition is just beginning, and the new architecture is priced higher and dramatically more capable.
Then the harder conversations: the missing $10B+ in China revenue that NVIDIA has officially zeroed out of guidance, Huawei and SMIC's chip push, and why CUDA's 19-year head start makes a clean Chinese substitute unrealistic for at least five years. Michael also explains why three megacap AI IPOs — SpaceX in June, OpenAI in September, Anthropic likely in October — could pressure NVIDIA short-term as portfolios reallocate.
And the big picture: Jensen's forecast of $3–4 trillion in AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade. Michael thinks the real ceiling is closer to $5 trillion, and that the gating factor isn't demand — it's TSMC, which he calls 'the Federal Reserve of the global tech market.'
00:00 GraniteShares NVDL sponsor read
00:27 Welcome to StockTwits TV with Michele Steele
00:39 Michael's black leather jacket (a Jensen homage)
00:51 The numbers: $81.6B revenue, 95% growth guide
01:08 Anything to give us pause? The missing China revenue
01:32 Huawei and the China domestic chip push
01:54 75% GAAP margins explained
02:12 Demand and supply locked in for years
02:21 Blackwell → Vera Rubin: the next chip cycle
02:40 Why the stock barely moved after a monster beat
03:18 The Apollo 13 analogy: an 18th-quarter beat
04:02 Vera Rubin ramp starting Q2/Q3
04:22 Valuation: 26–27x for 85–95% growth
04:44 Three mega AI IPOs: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic
05:06 Why portfolio reallocation pressures NVDA short-term
05:31 Dividend hike + $80B buyback
06:00 $50B+ in strategic tech-stack investments
06:10 The Groq acquisition that became a product in 4 months
06:33 "Circular deals" and the CoreWeave foundational stake
06:55 Hyperscalers spending $150–200B/year
07:22 Back to the China elephant in the room
07:43 Could a Trump–Xi meeting re-rate NVIDIA overnight?
08:25 China is already getting NVIDIA chips through porous markets
08:49 Chinese AI subsidiaries in Singapore and Asia
09:17 Can Huawei / DeepSeek replicate NVIDIA?
09:46 Huawei chips are 1–3 generations behind
10:00 China has cheap power to brute-force less efficient chips
10:28 CUDA: the 19-year software moat
10:57 Why Huawei chips need 6–12 months of extra software work
11:18 China can't escape NVIDIA for at least five years
11:38 Jensen's $3–4 trillion AI infrastructure forecast
12:06 Bigger than the internet. Bigger than mobile.
12:12 TSMC: the gating factor on all AI growth
12:33 "TSMC is the Federal Reserve of the global tech market"
12:56 Jensen flying to Taiwan every month asking for more fabs
13:15 Chatbots → agents → reasoning: 100x more inference compute
13:55 Wrap & Michael's Substack plug
14:14 Sponsor outro: GraniteShares NVDL
Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/
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By StocktwitsMichele Steele sits down with longtime tech analyst Michael Parekh to break down NVIDIA's latest earnings — $81.6 billion in revenue, 85% growth with guidance for 95% next quarter, and the 18th consecutive quarter of beating expectations. Yet the stock barely moved. Why?
Michael walks through the bull case piece by piece: 75% GAAP margins, a freshly hiked dividend (from one cent to 25 cents), an $80 billion buyback, and a valuation that's still only ~27x for a business growing 85–95%. The Blackwell-to-Vera Rubin chip transition is just beginning, and the new architecture is priced higher and dramatically more capable.
Then the harder conversations: the missing $10B+ in China revenue that NVIDIA has officially zeroed out of guidance, Huawei and SMIC's chip push, and why CUDA's 19-year head start makes a clean Chinese substitute unrealistic for at least five years. Michael also explains why three megacap AI IPOs — SpaceX in June, OpenAI in September, Anthropic likely in October — could pressure NVIDIA short-term as portfolios reallocate.
And the big picture: Jensen's forecast of $3–4 trillion in AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade. Michael thinks the real ceiling is closer to $5 trillion, and that the gating factor isn't demand — it's TSMC, which he calls 'the Federal Reserve of the global tech market.'
00:00 GraniteShares NVDL sponsor read
00:27 Welcome to StockTwits TV with Michele Steele
00:39 Michael's black leather jacket (a Jensen homage)
00:51 The numbers: $81.6B revenue, 95% growth guide
01:08 Anything to give us pause? The missing China revenue
01:32 Huawei and the China domestic chip push
01:54 75% GAAP margins explained
02:12 Demand and supply locked in for years
02:21 Blackwell → Vera Rubin: the next chip cycle
02:40 Why the stock barely moved after a monster beat
03:18 The Apollo 13 analogy: an 18th-quarter beat
04:02 Vera Rubin ramp starting Q2/Q3
04:22 Valuation: 26–27x for 85–95% growth
04:44 Three mega AI IPOs: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic
05:06 Why portfolio reallocation pressures NVDA short-term
05:31 Dividend hike + $80B buyback
06:00 $50B+ in strategic tech-stack investments
06:10 The Groq acquisition that became a product in 4 months
06:33 "Circular deals" and the CoreWeave foundational stake
06:55 Hyperscalers spending $150–200B/year
07:22 Back to the China elephant in the room
07:43 Could a Trump–Xi meeting re-rate NVIDIA overnight?
08:25 China is already getting NVIDIA chips through porous markets
08:49 Chinese AI subsidiaries in Singapore and Asia
09:17 Can Huawei / DeepSeek replicate NVIDIA?
09:46 Huawei chips are 1–3 generations behind
10:00 China has cheap power to brute-force less efficient chips
10:28 CUDA: the 19-year software moat
10:57 Why Huawei chips need 6–12 months of extra software work
11:18 China can't escape NVIDIA for at least five years
11:38 Jensen's $3–4 trillion AI infrastructure forecast
12:06 Bigger than the internet. Bigger than mobile.
12:12 TSMC: the gating factor on all AI growth
12:33 "TSMC is the Federal Reserve of the global tech market"
12:56 Jensen flying to Taiwan every month asking for more fabs
13:15 Chatbots → agents → reasoning: 100x more inference compute
13:55 Wrap & Michael's Substack plug
14:14 Sponsor outro: GraniteShares NVDL
Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/