A decade ago, there was a lot of hype about self driving cars. In fact, there was more interest in self-driving cars than there was in electric vehicles, in terms of the future of the auto industry. But progress in developing these robotic cars has turned out to be slow, and many tricky challenges still have not been solved. But is the technology finally ready for prime time? On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak with long-time technology journalist and analyst Tim Lee, the author of the Understanding AI newsletter, about why he believes self-driving cars are here and why they're finally about to make serious commercial inroads.

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Certain people claim that New York City has a reputation for... not having the best fruits and vegetables. This is a controversial point and not everyone agrees. But regardless of where you stand on this hot button issue, getting produce into the city has unique challenges for multiple reasons. So how does it all work? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Karen Karp, founder of Karen Karp & Partners and an expert in food supply chains, who works with a range of institutions to help get their produce delivered. We discuss the three main ways that fruits and vegetables come into NYC, the key role of the Hunts Point distribution terminal, and how this important supply chain can be improved.

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At Jackson Hole, the Kansas City Fed's annual gathering for economists and central bankers, there's a lot of focus on the short-term path of monetary policy. But, of course, the Economic Symposium is supposed to be about long-term policy frameworks. And central bankers aren't just responsible for changing benchmark interest rates — they are also financial regulators. On this episode, we speak with Hyun Song Shin, economic advisor and head of research at the Bank for International Settlements, about where he sees risks lurking in the financial system now. We discuss the shift from bank lending to bond-based borrowing, and what it means for inflation now. We talk about how even safe assets like US Treasuries can become sources of stress, such as in March 2020, the gilt crisis of last year, and most recently, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. We also talk about how higher interest rates are supposed to bring down inflation, but might not be doing that much currently, as well as the limits of central banking.

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The Biden administration has undertaken an aggressive effort to revitalize domestic manufacturing, particularly in areas like semiconductors and green technology. The reasons are manifold. The pandemic exposed frailties in the supply chain. Climate concerns have accelerated the urgency around the energy transition. And anxiety about growing Chinese dominance in key areas (such as batteries) has heightened geopolitical concerns. So now, day after day, we see spates of announcements of new factories being opened up in these areas. But what are the risks and dangers to this approach? On this episode of the podcast, recorded at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, we speak with Adam Posen, a former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee who now serves as president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He warns that the basic logic for this domestic industrial policy is misguided and based on a faulty understanding of domestic economic dynamics. He also says that we're taking a wrong and dangerous approach to dealing with perceived competitive threats from China.

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In recent years, the absolute level of government debt around the world has risen dramatically. The Covid emergency unleashed a huge wave of public-sector spending in 2020 and beyond. Meanwhile, spending remains high for other reasons, including public investment on climate and energy-related issues. So what does that mean for policy going forward? What does it mean for central banks tasked with controlling inflation? University of California at Berkeley economist Barry Eichengreen presented a paper on exactly this topic at this year’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. On this episode, we speak with Eichengreen about his research, why it's of importance to central bankers, and what history says about the prospects for fiscal consolidation.

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In the global financial system, US Treasuries play a special role. They’re basically as close to cash as a financial asset can get and their yields act as the "risk-free" rate against which all other assets are measured. In other words, the US Treasury market is supposed to be the safest and most liquid in the world. But Treasuries have also been at the center of some pretty big financial events in recent years, including the March 2020 sell-off and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank this year. The Federal Reserve has had to step in to support the market, and now there’s concern over who will buy all these bonds as the US Treasury ramps up its borrowing. So why does the world’s most important market keep experiencing these issues? And what can be done to improve the way Treasuries are bought and sold? In this episode, we speak with Stanford University finance professor Darrell Duffie, who just presented a paper about this very issue to central bankers at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. We talk to him about why the Treasury market keeps experiencing problems, what can be done to fix it, and why the issue is gaining more urgency.

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On Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave his much-anticipated speech at the Kansas City Fed Monetary Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. While many were expecting some kind of academic or theoretical discussion, the text was straightforwardly about the current path of monetary policy. So what did we learn? What actually happens at Jackson Hole? And how did this year's event fit in with prior years? On this episode, we turn to two of our colleagues, Bloomberg Surveillance co-host Tom Keene as well as Michael McKee, international economics and policy correspondent for Bloomberg Television. We discuss the speech, the whole event, and how 2023 compares and contrasts with previous editions of the event.

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Bloomberg Surveillance comes to the Odd Lots podcast!  Listen for a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from the Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. 

Hear more from Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple or Spotify.

Guests in this episode:
Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens' College
Tracy Alloway, Co-Host of Odd Lots
Patrick Harker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund

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Tractor Supply Co. has grown from a small mail order business set up in the 1930s into the biggest farm and ranch retailer operating in the US. Along the way, its share price has soared from around $1 in the 1990s to well over $200 today. The company has managed to tap into a wave of enthusiasm for hobby farming, pet care and rural living, with its revenues jumping 70% between 2019 and 2022. So what accounts for the success of Tractor Supply, such that analysts have referred to it as "one of the most interesting retailers on the planet"? And can it keep up the rapid growth? In this episode we speak with Bryant University Trustee Professor of Management Michael Roberto, who just published a Harvard Business School case study on the company.

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The Chinese economy is in a slump. Industrial production is down. Retail sales are down. The property industry continues to struggle. The People's Bank of China just did a surprise rate cut. So what's driving the decline and what can the government do about it? On this episode of the podcast we speak with Zongyuan Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg Fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of the new book Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions. She explains how the "four Ds" — demand, debt, demographics and decoupling — are acting as a persistent drag on the Chinese economy right now. We discuss possible policy responses and how China's war chest of financial assets plays into the government's strategy.

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