DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, provides an in-depth analysis of US GDP and the Real GDP, as he examines variables such as inventory, from durable goods and non-durables and services, and takes a closer look at the GDP deflator. His study provides direction on the course of inflation in the US economy as well as on Real GDP. As the Fed meets this week on interest rates, MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, issues a stark warning on the cost of servicing the balooning US debt. "We're getting to the point of no return if [the Fed] keeps raising rates," says VAN ALSTYNE, referring to the astonishing $400 billion interest payments on the Federal debt. "Reality is going to hit us when  the Fed is still printing money, or has to print money just to afford all the interest on the debt." Japan may also have its own rude awakening one day as its monetary math won't work for it in the long term, VAN ALSTYNE says.  (On Wednesday, Feb 1, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point – to a range of 4.5% to 4.75% – at  the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting.)

Elsewhere, BOVE says customers of many US banks have "had it" and are transferring their deposits and funds from these banks to other institutions and rivals. Bove says billions of dollars have been withdrawn by customers for higher rates and superior yields elsewhere on their money. "Banks are too greedy and did not pass along rate increases," says BOVE. The CONVERSATION also looks at what it means for the top 100 US corporate pension funds which have seen the upside of higher interest rates. Joining the CONVERSATION is JOHN AIDAN BYRNE.

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Talks on raising the US debt ceiling are heating up in Washington. On this episode, DICK BOVE explains why the Social Security system is inching closer to insolvency unless reforms are introduced to shore up the trust funds supporting the program. Society Security and other programs are at the heart of the debate on the debt ceiling and talks on avoiding a government default. "There is an acceptance of the view that some negotiation is necessary to control the US budget," according to BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. "Debt is out of control; it must be reined in." On a different note, MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, explains that coming adjustments in the calculation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could produce a more positive outcome in the trajectory of the CPI because of significant changes in how some variables that comprise the index are measured.

BOVE steps up his case for reshoring American manufacturing jobs, saying while free trade is positive in theory, in practice it has been a disaster for America. "Economists argue that stimulus to rebuild America's manufacturing sector harms South East Asia, raises the price of goods for consumers and hurts free trade," he says. "Nonetheless it must, and is being done."  VAN ALSTYNE defends the merits of free trade. JOHN AIDAN BYRNE notes how decades of outsourcing has destablised some American communities, helped fuel social chaos and a drug epidemic, as middle-class jobs were shipped overseas. Elsewhere, BOVE explains how the US Fed is now damaging the US banking system by competing with banks for large customer deposits.

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The United States will hits its mammoth $31.4 trillion limit on gross federal debt this Thursday, January 19, admidst political mudwrestling and theatrics in Washington. At issue is the prospect of a government default if the debt limit is not raised. A default would spell a catastrophe for the US and global economy, throwing us into a decade-long depression, according to DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP.  By most accounts, the government has enough money to carry it through to June. 

On this episode, BOVE will discuss the implications of the debt limit and explain what is starkly different today, compared with an earlier generation when US debt first started to climb from a much lower base. Despite the various distressing scenarios, MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, says the debt ceiling"crisis" is a "joke" manufactured by the media to stir up political tension. VAN ALSTYNE says the government could deploy plenty of financial tricks to ride out this "crisis" including the  minting of a trillion dollar token, or multiple tokens of this size! JOHN AIDAN BYRNE notes that the true debt of the US exceeds the debt ceiling number by a staggering sum. 

Also on this episode, BOVE will present an in-depth analysis of US banks in light of recent bank earnings reports. Areas of strength and weakness are examined, from the expanding debt on the consumer side to strong growth in commerical lending. BOVE, in particular, explains why a roster of midwestern banks are looking "very attractive."

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The fundamental shift in the US and global economies is expected to continue for an extended period with the traditional banks in the US likely to benefit, according to DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. The changes underway are expected to firmly reorient the US economy towards solid business operations rather than than on the consumer. "If true, this shift will adjust fund flows; labor structure; and investment opportunities," notes BOVE in his latest report on the long-term outlook for banks. "Banks will be one of the beneficiaries." BOVE has concluded that the kind of business model constructed in the early 1990s that guided the US economy, "has been harmful in multiple fashions."

The CONVERSATION opens with a closer look at the latest numbers from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, sees telling signs of a decline in the quality of the labor markets. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 3.5 percent from 3.7 percent. Job growth in December slowed to 223,000 jobs, a two-year low. Joining the CONVERSATION is JOHN AIDAN BYRNE who raises questions about the future of the EU as a political and economic bloc.

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In the first episode of the New Year, the CONVERSATION first looks back at 2022 and then to the future. There is an accounting from DICK BOVE of the massive wealth that evaporated in the stock and crypto markets last year. In equities alone, some $30 in market value was erased, posing risks for the future course of the American economy, he says. "You can't have a strong economy and a strong market if money is evaporating, " says BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. The CONVERSATION looks more closely at this wealth destruction and the easy money policies that led to this and record inflation. Inflation is widely slammed by analysts and economists as a bad outcome. But MAT VAN ALSTYNE. ODEON co-founder and managing partner, posits that inflation may actually be one way for a nation to regain control of its economy. Japan is then examined by VAN ALSTYNE as an economy that has defied,  "all logic and expectations" despite decades of underlying structural problems and a mountain of debt

Meanwhile, there is major global cyclical change underway, according to BOVE. Yet, he says, many investors and many in the media are missing the point, failing to recognize that a major adjustment has begun.  "I strongly believe that the new cycle developing in the United States economy will be dramatically different than the old one that is dying at present," according to BOVE. In this new cycle, investment determinations are based on risk adjusted return on capital, or RAROC. Joining the CONVERSATION is JOHN AIDAN BYRNE.

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In this Special Episode of ODEON CAPITAL CONVERSATIONS, we prepare for 2023. So it's in with the New Cycle of monetary restraint and more investment in production and key areas of the American economy, manufacturing, energy and more, according to DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. Out goes the Old Cycle of Easy Money and Debt, he explains in an interview with BNN Bloomberg replayed here for our listeners. BOVE spells it out in the context of a wider question about the reported layoffs, numbering thousands, at Goldman Sachs. Happy & Prosperous New Year!

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The global population hit a record 8 billion in November. By one official estimate, this is projected to rise in the coming decades before finally peaking in 2080 at 10.4 billion people. But in large swathes of the globe today, national populations are already in decline, peaking or barely keeping pace with replacement levels to maintain their existing population sizes. Indeed, the statistics show a major, even distressing, challenge for policy planners and governments as populations age and decline. 

DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at Odeon Capital Group, sees a pending disaster for investments and economies unless the trend is reversed, or appropriate policies, such as sensible immigration laws, are introduced. With a fertility rate at 1.8 per woman in the US, for example, "this country will reach a point whereby it cannot replace its population," according to Bove. The finances of the US government are simply incapable of handing these demographic changes if they persist, he adds.  BOVE spells out the stark details in this episode. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, Odeon co-founder and managing partner, says the US has a strong suit among the nations of the world, "it is still the land of opportunity" for many prospective immigrants who see America as a shining beacon. Joining the Conversation is JOHN AIDAN BYRNE.

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It was all eyes on the US Federal Reserve as markets cheered the Labor Department's report that its consumer price index (CPI) climbed 7.1 percent in November from a year ago, sharply down from 7.7 percent in October. "The numbers were phenomenal," said DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at Odeon Capital Group. "The markets loved it." On this episode BOVE will address how he sees the Fed responding with a view to further interest rate increases.  MAT VAN ALSTYNE, Odeon co-founder and managing partner, describes the slowing pace of price rises as amazing, breaking down the numbers.

Elsewhere, the Conversation picks up on research by BOVE about the threat to American economic and political dominance on the world stage from China, Russia and its allies. VAN ALSTYNE disagrees with BOVE's thesis that America's "hegemony" has been blunted. JOHN AIDAN BYRNE argues that ultimately economic strength and productive independence is the key in large measure to a nation's world standing. The Conversation examines plunging fertility rates in the West and what that augurs for national economies and future prosperity. In a wide-ranging discussion on immigration. BOVE shares his story of a Cuban refugee who fled to Florida from Cuba after a brutal experience in his homeland and a nightmare journey to freedom. Finally, there's Sam Bankman-Fried.

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The CONVERSATION breaks down the most recent jobs numbers from the US Labor Department which showed employers added 263,000 jobs in November. That's close to the strong gains of the previous three months which averaged 282,000 jobs.  The jobless rate, meanwhile, stayed at 3.7 percent in November. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, argues that the headline numbers do not tell the complete story. For example, the household employment numbers tabulated in one survey points to a decline in jobs. Overall, there are other negative indicators. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, Odeon co-founder and managing partner describes a massive divergence in the job numbers calculated by the household and the separate established surveys, a gap that has been described as recessionary. The CONVERSATION also examines the relationship between US business openings (births) and closings (deaths) for a fuller understanding.

In this topic-packed CONVERSATION, there's more on the trouble for bank stocks and the impact of rising interest rates; how the Fed has impaired the home mortgage market. China comes in for scrutiny as does the new owner of Twitter, Elon Musk. In a spirited debate, BOVE says Twitter is rapidly becoming "a purveyor of lies, hate and filth." VAN ALSTYNE, an avid Twitter user, disagrees, says Twitter in the past month has improved significantly under MUSK.  JOHN AIDAN BYRNE says some form of careful content moderation may be desirable as is the campaign to preserve freedom of speech at the same time.

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The CONVERSATION opens with the latest civil unrest in China as protesters take to the streets in response to the Communist Party's zero Covid policies. Market indexes dropped as investors weighed the impact on trade and investments, and also in reaction to the latest response of the Fed in its battle to tame inflation. At stake in the case of China, is world trade and geopolitics with the future of global supply chains and manufacturing at play. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, argues that the US must take an isolationist stand in the coming years if it is to restore its once proud domestic manufacturing base. JOHN AIDAN BYRNE says communities across America have been devastated by the loss of jobs for decades because of outsourcing, a problem that has resulted in deep-seated social problems as well as economic. Meanwhile, the US financial systems appears headed more closely to insolvency. "It is mind-boggling, and frightening," says BOVE "It's a huge problem."

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