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Of super(duper)models and 'l@s nin@s'
Today's episode is all about the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring pattern in the tropical Pacific. It is characterised by a cyclic pattern of warm and cold events, El Niño and La Niña. These have globally felt impacts, necessitating good predictions and a better understanding of its processes. This is the topic of Lennard's master thesis in which an interactively coupled modelling system, also referred to as a Supermodel, is evaluated for its ability to simulate the ENSO.
Update: ENSO is for this year again projected to develop into a strong El Niño event. The NOAA expects an El Niño with ca. 60% probability and even 25% for a strong El Niño for the late year 2026.
Don't hesitate to contact Lennard in case you have questions, or with suggestions for further research and podcast episodes on the topic ([email protected], www.linkedin.com/in/lennard-montag)).
RESOURCES:
Information about ENSO …
Bayr, T., & Latif, M. (2023). ENSO atmospheric feedbacks under global warming and their relation to mean-state changes. Climate Dynamics, 60(9-10), 2613–2631. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06454-3
McPhaden, M. J., Santoso, A., & Cai, W. (2020). Introduction to El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate: 1. In El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate (pp. 1–19). American Geophysical Union (AGU). https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119548164.ch1
Williams, A., Santoro, C. M., Smith, M. A., & Latorre, C. (2008). THE IMPACT OF ENSO IN THE ATACAMA DESERT AND AUSTRALIAN ARID ZONE: EXPLORATORY TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF ARCHAEOLOGICAL RECORDS . Chungara: Revista de Antropología Chilena, 40, 245–259. http://www.jstor.org/stable/27802523
… and the SuMo:
Counillon, F., Keenlyside, N., Wang, S., Devilliers, M., Gupta, A., Koseki, S., & Shen, M.-L. (2023). Framework for an Ocean–Connected Supermodel of the Earth System. Journal of advances in modeling earth systems, 15(3). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003310
Duane, G. S., & Shen, M.-L. (2023). Synchronization of Alternative Models in a Supermodel and the Learning of Critical Behavior. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 80(6), 1565–1584. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-22-0113.1
Schevenhoven, F., Keenlyside, N., Counillon, F., Carrassi, A., Chapman,W. E., Devilliers, M., Gupta, A., Koseki, S., Selten, F. M., Shen, M.-L., Wang, S., Weiss, J. B., Wiegerinck, W., & Duane, G. S. (2023). Supermodeling: Improving Predictions with an Ensemble of Interacting Models. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 104(9), E1670–E1686. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0070.1
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By Eva Rohlfer & Josefa BeyerToday's episode is all about the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring pattern in the tropical Pacific. It is characterised by a cyclic pattern of warm and cold events, El Niño and La Niña. These have globally felt impacts, necessitating good predictions and a better understanding of its processes. This is the topic of Lennard's master thesis in which an interactively coupled modelling system, also referred to as a Supermodel, is evaluated for its ability to simulate the ENSO.
Update: ENSO is for this year again projected to develop into a strong El Niño event. The NOAA expects an El Niño with ca. 60% probability and even 25% for a strong El Niño for the late year 2026.
Don't hesitate to contact Lennard in case you have questions, or with suggestions for further research and podcast episodes on the topic ([email protected], www.linkedin.com/in/lennard-montag)).
RESOURCES:
Information about ENSO …
Bayr, T., & Latif, M. (2023). ENSO atmospheric feedbacks under global warming and their relation to mean-state changes. Climate Dynamics, 60(9-10), 2613–2631. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06454-3
McPhaden, M. J., Santoso, A., & Cai, W. (2020). Introduction to El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate: 1. In El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate (pp. 1–19). American Geophysical Union (AGU). https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119548164.ch1
Williams, A., Santoro, C. M., Smith, M. A., & Latorre, C. (2008). THE IMPACT OF ENSO IN THE ATACAMA DESERT AND AUSTRALIAN ARID ZONE: EXPLORATORY TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF ARCHAEOLOGICAL RECORDS . Chungara: Revista de Antropología Chilena, 40, 245–259. http://www.jstor.org/stable/27802523
… and the SuMo:
Counillon, F., Keenlyside, N., Wang, S., Devilliers, M., Gupta, A., Koseki, S., & Shen, M.-L. (2023). Framework for an Ocean–Connected Supermodel of the Earth System. Journal of advances in modeling earth systems, 15(3). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003310
Duane, G. S., & Shen, M.-L. (2023). Synchronization of Alternative Models in a Supermodel and the Learning of Critical Behavior. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 80(6), 1565–1584. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-22-0113.1
Schevenhoven, F., Keenlyside, N., Counillon, F., Carrassi, A., Chapman,W. E., Devilliers, M., Gupta, A., Koseki, S., Selten, F. M., Shen, M.-L., Wang, S., Weiss, J. B., Wiegerinck, W., & Duane, G. S. (2023). Supermodeling: Improving Predictions with an Ensemble of Interacting Models. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 104(9), E1670–E1686. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0070.1