Off The Wall

September has historically been a tough month for stocks. Add headlines about tariffs, interest rates, and geopolitical tensions, and it's easy to wonder whether you should be doing something differently with your portfolio.

On this episode of OFF THE WALL, Dave Armstrong, CFA®, and Nate Tonsager, CIPM, CFA®, answer three Ask Monument Anything (AMA) questions about what's happening in the markets and what investors should be paying attention to.

They get into the risks surrounding private credit and the AI buildout, the potential impact of tariffs and energy market uncertainty, and what historical market data tells us about September and the fourth quarter.

They also discuss why having a cash buffer matters when markets get volatile. If you have money set aside for near-term needs, you may be less likely to find yourself selling investments at an inopportune time.

The takeaway: Market pullbacks are part of investing, but that doesn't mean every headline requires a portfolio change. Dave and Nate explain how they evaluate current risks, what the historical data can—and can't—tell us, and why your investment strategy should account for the money you'll need before the market has time to recover.

Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures

Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:

00:00 - Disclosures And Quick Cold Open

0:25 - Welcome And Three AMA Questions

1:51 - Geopolitics Oil AI And Markets

9:20 - Tariffs Trade Wars And Inflation

13:10 - Data First Investing Amid Headlines

14:13 - Higher For Longer Rate Reality

23:31 - Build A Plan Buy Sell Hold

25:26 - September Effect And Q4 Hope

31:26 - Send Questions Subscribe And Close

32:52 - Full Disclosures

Connect with Monument Wealth Management:

Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/

Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#

Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/

Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement

Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit

Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/

Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning

Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/

About "Off the Wall":

Markets move fast, and headlines rarely tell the full story. Off The Wall cuts through the noise with unfiltered market and economic insight from Monument's CEO David B. Armstrong, CFA and Portfolio Manager Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM. Tune in for the conversations that actually explain what's moving your portfolio, without the Wall Street spin.

Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

TLDR: Market dips aren't a reason to bail on stocks; they're a reminder to make sure you own the strongest assets. Momentum investing uses data to guide those adjustments, instead of knee-jerk selling, helps to protect you on the downside, capture the upside, and keep your long-term plan on track.

A market pullback can make you want to de-risk and pull money out of stocks. But reacting to short-term swings often locks in losses and can hurt your wealth over time. The only real reason to change your mix of stocks, bonds, and cash is a change in your own life or cash needs — not what the market is doing.

That said, you don't have to just sit still. Momentum investing lets real market data, not emotion, guide the moves you make within your portfolio.

In this episode of Off The Wall, David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM discuss why switching asset classes during a sell-off backfires, and how they use momentum investing — tracking which assets are gaining strength — to keep portfolios in good shape. They explain how this approach captures upside while limiting downside, why taking the "timing" element out of the equation prevents excessive trading, and how zooming out to an 18-year view turns volatility into just another part of a long-term strategy.

Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures

Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:

00:00 - The Wrong Reason To Shift

2:25 - Life Events Drive Allocation Changes

5:35 - Momentum And Relative Strength Explained

11:40 - Ranking Winners Without Overtrading

13:55 - When Momentum Gets Whipsawed

15:45 - How We Measure Momentum Today

19:55 - Staying Invested Through Big Sell Offs

28:15 - Planning Withdrawals And Building Patience

31:05 - AMA Invite And How To Reach Us

Connect with Monument Wealth Management:

Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/

Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#

Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/

Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement

Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit

Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/

Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning

Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/

About "Off the Wall":

Markets move fast, and headlines rarely tell the full story. Off The Wall cuts through the noise with unfiltered market and economic insight from Monument's CEO David B. Armstrong, CFA and Portfolio Manager Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM. Tune in for the conversations that actually explain what's moving your portfolio, without the Wall Street spin.

Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

Financial media headlines keep warning about an impending "AI bubble." Is a crash coming, or is there more to the story? In a previous episode we argued that there is no AI Bubble. Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM doubles down on his position, taking a dive into the data to illustrate why current market conditions look very different from the 2000 tech crash.

This episode breaks down the sectors like healthcare, financials, and consumer staples that are quietly outperforming tech. Nate also looks at how many companies beat their Q2 earnings estimates, why the market's price-to-growth ratio suggests stocks are fairly valued rather than overpriced, and what investors and CEOs are feeling about the economy right now.

The takeaway: We don't think the data points to an AI Bubble. And while market volatility is a certainty, you can stay in the driver's seat by keeping a data-driven outlook and financial plan that is positioned for the long term, with 12-24 months of cash on hand to buffer any downturns.

Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures

Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:

00:00 - Why The AI Bubble Debate Persists

2:27 - Market Breadth Beyond Tech Leaders

6:20 - Earnings Strength Supports Stock Prices

12:32 - Valuation Through PE And PEG

18:29 - Sentiment Checks Investors And CEOs

25:16 - Mosaic Framework Plus Cash Planning

28:58 - AMA Invite Subscribe And Disclosures

Connect with Monument Wealth Management:

Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/

Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#

Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/

Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement

Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit

Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/

Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning

Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/

About "Off the Wall":

Markets move fast, and headlines rarely tell the full story. Off The Wall cuts through the noise with unfiltered market and economic insight from Monument's CEO David B. Armstrong, CFA and Portfolio Manager Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM. Tune in for the conversations that actually explain what's moving your portfolio, without the Wall Street spin.

Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

Market pullbacks may actually work in your favor at tax time, if your portfolio is set up to take advantage of them. That's where direct indexing comes in. It's not about trying to time the market. It's a disciplined way to capture tax losses along the way, while helping to keep your investment mix and expected returns where you want them.

In this episode of Off The Wall, David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CIPM, CFA break down why direct indexing is far more than a tax tool; it's a customizable strategy for every stage of your financial life. They explain how to build a "tax war chest" to offset future windfalls, ways to transition between portfolios or advisors without triggering a massive tax hit, and how to think about withdrawing cash in retirement.

The TLDR: Direct indexing turns market sell-offs into tax-saving opportunities without pulling you out of the market. Whether you're building wealth, switching strategies, or funding retirement, harvesting losses helps keep your return profile intact and give you more control over your tax bill. Investing is not just about what you make; it's about what you get to keep.

Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures

Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:

1:28 - Why Direct Indexing Matters

3:04 - How Tax Loss Harvesting Works

8:37 - The Hidden Value Of Customization

11:57 - Accumulation Phase And Tax War Chest

16:07 - Switching Advisors Without A Tax Bomb

21:57 - Retirement Cash Needs And Tax Control

24:41 - Timing Withdrawals To Maximize Offsets

26:18 - Important Disclosures

27:01 - Pogo Stick Analogy And Wrap-Up

Connect with Monument Wealth Management:

Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/

Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#

Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/

Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement

Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit

Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/

Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning

Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/

About "Off the Wall":

Markets move fast, and headlines rarely tell the full story. Off The Wall cuts through the noise with unfiltered market and economic insight from Monument's CEO David B. Armstrong, CFA and Portfolio Manager Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM. Tune in for the conversations that actually explain what's moving your portfolio, without the Wall Street spin.

Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

Everyone's talking about an "AI bubble." Is it real? David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM look at what the actual earnings data says — and it tells a different story than the headlines.

This episode also covers SpaceX's stock drop, and why 95% of the company's shares are still locked up and can't be sold yet. Dave and Nate walk through what that means for anyone thinking about buying in now. They also get into private equity: why it's being pushed so hard to individual investors right now, and the real cost of locking up your money for seven years to get in.

The takeaway: don't let headlines or hype set your investment strategy. Understand the actual data, stay disciplined, and keep your options open.

Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures

Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:

00:00 - A Volatility Reality Check

0:21 - Welcome And Why SpaceX Matters

3:59 - AI Bubble Claims Put To Data

8:30 - Semiconductors Cool Off And IPOs Wait

14:05 - Concentration Risk In The S&P 500

18:45 - SpaceX Price Drop And The Float Problem

22:25 - Staying Invested Through Normal Drawdowns

24:03 - Lockups, Liquidity Events, And Timing

27:57 - Space Exposure Via ETFs Plus Mag 7 Check

29:50 - FOMO, Feelings, And Long-Term Odds

29:51- Why Private Markets Get Pushed

31:22 - The Seven-Year Wait And Opportunity Cost

36:03 - When Alternatives Can Actually Fit

41:30 - How To Send Questions And Subscribe

42:08 - Required Investing Disclosure

Connect with Monument Wealth Management:

Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/

Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#

Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/

Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement

Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit

Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/

Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning

Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/

About "Off the Wall": Markets move fast, and headlines rarely tell the full story. Off The Wall cuts through the noise with unfiltered market and economic insight from Monument's CEO David B. Armstrong, CFA and Portfolio Manager Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM. Tune in for the conversations that actually explain what's moving your portfolio, without the Wall Street spin.

Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

Small caps ripped. Gold fell. Bitcoin argued with itself. David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CIPM, CFA break down what actually drove Q2 returns — corporate earnings, not headlines — and why the "Everything Bagel" approach to diversification just proved its worth again.

No hot takes. Just the data behind small caps outrunning big tech and nobody talking about it.

Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures

Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:

00:00 - Speculation Has No Earnings

00:28 - Q2 Review Kickoff And Quick Sports Talk

02:32 - The Quarter's Surprise Winners

06:07 - Earnings Boom Bonds Lag Gold Falls

11:22 - Bitcoin As Risk Asset Debate

12:56 - Valuations Concentration And Market Breadth

19:13 - Diversification Still Works

27:34 - Inflation Expectations And Fuel Spillover

34:35 - Ignoring Headlines And Staying Long Term

36:57 - AMA Requests And Closing

Connect with Monument Wealth Management:

Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/

Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#

Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/

Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement

Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit

Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/

Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning

Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/

About "Off the Wall":

Markets are noisy. Your time is limited. Off The Wall cuts through the clutter. Hosts David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM bring you straightforward, candid insights about what's really moving markets and why it matters for successful investors. From economic shifts to portfolio positioning, we break down the complexities so you can invest with intention and stay grounded when headlines and life feels chaotic.

Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

You can get a perfect workout plan and still never get in shape. The science is right there. The exercises are correct. But knowing what to do and actually doing it when you don't feel like it are two completely different problems. That's why personal trainers exist — not to hand you better information, but to make sure you show up and follow through.

Investing works the same way.

In this episode of Off The Wall, David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM make the case that behavior — not strategy — is the real variable in investment returns. They break down dollar-cost averaging as a structural accountability tool, walk through what the Vanguard lump-sum data actually says (and the hidden assumption most people skip over), and show how pre-set triggers turn market sell-offs into buying opportunities instead of reasons to freeze.

The TLDR: the best investment strategy isn't the one with the highest expected return. It's the one you'll actually stick with when the market is down and your instincts are telling you to do something about it.

Because in investing, you don't win in the spreadsheet. You win in the chair.

Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures

Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:

0:33 — Vinyl And Setup

2:42 — Volatility Makes Cash Decisions Hard

3:06 — Dollar Cost Averaging Explained Simply

5:35 — Why 401(k) Autopilot Works

6:57 — Vanguard Data And The Hidden Assumption

10:10 — DCA Triggers To Buy Selloffs

12:30 — Experience Changes How Pullbacks Feel

15:06 — Stop Hunting For The Perfect Bottom

17:50 — Missing Best Days And Political Noise

24:20 — Time Horizons And Cash As An Asset

29:57 — Dalbar Study And The Value Of Advice

24:20 — Wrap-Up Plus AMA Call For Questions

Connect with Monument Wealth Management:

Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/

Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#

Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/

Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement

Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit

Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/

Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning

Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/

About "Off the Wall":

Markets are noisy. Your time is limited. Off The Wall cuts through the clutter. Hosts David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM bring you straightforward, candid insights about what's really moving markets and why it matters for successful investors. From economic shifts to portfolio positioning, we break down the complexities so you can invest with intention and stay grounded when headlines and life feels chaotic.

Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

The SpaceX IPO may be one of the most anticipated market events of the year, but does that mean investors should rush to participate?

In this episode of Off The Wall, David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CIPM, CFA challenge some of the biggest assumptions surrounding IPOs, including the belief that buying on day one means getting in early. They explore what history says about IPO performance, why patience can be an advantage, and how investors can gain exposure without getting caught up in the news headlines.

They also unpack the market's recent volatility, the surprising sector shifts happening beneath the surface, and why they believe that adaptability is the key to long-term investment success.

Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:

00:00 - Cold Open And Disclosures

00:27 - AMA Format And Today's Two Questions

01:30 - SpaceX IPO Hype Vs Reality

04:35 - IPO Returns Stats And Lockup Pressure

1255 - Institutions, Allocations, And Retail FOMO

17:35 - Index Funds, ETFs, And Long-Term Exposure

23:53 - Market Volatility And Sector Whiplash

26:52 - Earnings Strength And A Data Process

30:47 - REIT Trivia, Listener Questions, And Subscribe

Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures

Connect with Monument Wealth Management:

Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/

Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#

Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/

Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement

Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit

Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/

Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning

Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/

About "Off the Wall":

Markets are noisy. Your time is limited. Off The Wall cuts through the clutter. Hosts David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM bring you straightforward, candid insights about what's really moving markets and why it matters for successful investors. From economic shifts to portfolio positioning, we break down the complexities so you can invest with intention and stay grounded when headlines and life feels chaotic.

Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

Many investors see passive investing as the safest, most cost-effective way to build wealth. In this episode of Off The Wall, David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CIPM, CFA challenge that assumption by pulling back the curtain on what can happen to passive investors when the market turns.

They break down the hidden risks of matching a benchmark exactly, exploring how a 20% market drop means an automatic 20% hit to your personal wealth if you don't have an active strategy behind you. They cover boredom mindsets, as well as answering the question: Should you be an active or passive investor?

The goal of finding the cheapest solution is too simplistic and comes with unnecessary risk. The more strategic goal is to build a portfolio that actively protects your financial freedom.

Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures

Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:

00:00 - Disclosures And Warm Open

01:58 - Active Vs Passive Defined Clearly

03:58 - The V8 Portfolio And Manager Discipline

15:16 - Passive Investing And The Boredom Trap

19:25 - Taxes, Turnover, And Account Type

21:35 - Actively Managing ETFs For Diversification

27:32 - Emerging Markets Breakdown And What Works

32:59 - Listener Questions, Contact Info, Closing

Connect with Monument Wealth Management:

Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/

Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#

Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/

Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement

Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit

Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/

Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning

Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/

About "Off the Wall":

Markets are noisy. Your time is limited. Off The Wall cuts through the clutter. Hosts David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM bring you straightforward, candid insights about what's really moving markets and why it matters for successful investors. From economic shifts to portfolio positioning, we break down the complexities so you can invest with intention and stay grounded when headlines and life feels chaotic.

Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com

Something big is happening in corporate America, and it's barely making headlines. In this episode of Off The Wall, David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CIPM, CFA break down one of the most interesting stories in Q1 earnings: companies are pouring money into long-term growth instead of handing it back to shareholders. CapEx is up 38%. Buybacks? Up just 1%. They unpack what that means, who's doing the spending, and why the 35-year playbook of returning cash to shareholders may be getting rewritten.

Then the conversation shifts to the Fed. Chairman Powell is out, and Kevin Warsh is in. Dave and Nate walk through who Warsh is, why his background is an important piece of the conversation, and what a more flexible, less predictable Fed chair could mean for interest rates, inflation, and your wealth strategy.

Finally, they tackle a listener question about using AI to evaluate a portfolio. It's a genuinely useful data collection tool when applied correctly. But when a study shows AI trading bots losing a third of their capital in two weeks across 32 separate tests, the limits become hard to ignore. Dave and Nate break down exactly where AI earns its place in the investment process, where it falls short, and how Monument is actually applying it when it comes to managing your portfolio.

Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures

Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:

0:00 - Disclosures and Quick Premise

0:26 - AMA Agenda and Market Backdrop

1:46 - Earnings Surprise: CapEx Beats Buybacks

4:06 - Hyperscalers and the AI Spend Cycle

8:12 - Momentum Over Predictions in Portfolios

19:54 - Market Seasonality, Iran, and Staying Invested

23:23 - New Fed Chair and Independence

32:14 - Inflation, Oil, and Rate Decision Uncertainty

36:46 - AI Use Cases and Hallucination Risk

46:22 - Why Trading Bots Often Lose Money

48:06 - Send Questions, Subscribe, and Closing

Connect with Monument Wealth Management:

Visit our website: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/

Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/monumentwealth/#

Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/monument-wealth-management/

Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MonumentWealthManagement

Connect on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MonumentWealth#Fit

Subscribe to our Private Wealth Newsletter: https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/subscribe/

Check out our Between Sips Podcast: Where Money Meets Meaning

Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/

About "Off the Wall":

Markets are noisy. Your time is limited. Off The Wall cuts through the clutter. Hosts David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM bring you straightforward, candid insights about what's really moving markets and why it matters for successful investors. From economic shifts to portfolio positioning, we break down the complexities so you can invest with intention and stay grounded when headlines and life feels chaotic.

Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com