• Tariff volatility is disrupting markets, but fundamentals remain steady. The recent selloff in oil prices is driven more by headline anxiety than long-term structural shifts in demand or supply.

• Diesel demand holds while gasoline weakens. While gasoline demand has shown early signs of softening, diesel consumption remains above last year’s levels, pointing to a more stable industrial and freight environment.

• Supply response may set the floor. With U.S. shale breakevens near $65 per barrel, current prices under $60 are unsustainable long-term and could prompt production cutbacks that rebalance the market.