The unimaginable has now happened – a conflict in the Gulfhas targeted energy targets with a potential to impact global energy markets.

This episode, recorded during my travels in Singapore,examines the implications of unprecedented attacks on ports and shipping vessels, which may fundamentally alter international perceptions of regional energy supply reliability.

While a short-term increase in oil prices is expected, thelonger-term consequences are complex. Buyers with diversified sources—particularly those procuring from outside Qatar and the UAE—are better positioned to navigate this crisis. Europe, which now relies largely on US supplies, appears resilient. In contrast, Asia—including South Asia, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and China—faces greater challenges should the conflict extend beyond several weeks. Closure of shipping lanes will lead to higher costs for all energy, even if alternate sources are identified. The reputation of Qatar and the UAE as dependable suppliers may be undermined if vessel deliveries are disrupted and Force Majeure is declared.

Among major LNG supply regions, the United States—and, to a lesser extent, Canada—emerge as strong candidates for future incremental supply. Australia’s ability to expand exports is limited, compounded by unfavorable public opinion and minimal industry taxation. Russia remainsconstrained by sanctions, and tightening European restrictions may further curtail production. Historically, Qatar and the UAE have been regarded as reliable but inflexible suppliers; however, continued conflict involving Irancould jeopardize this status. The US, with suppliers operating independently of government controls and pricing based on domestic gas rates, stands to benefit from any decline in confidence toward Gulf producers. Note to potentialinvestors in Gulfstream LNG:

In this episode, I take a broad look at the LNG industry’scurrent landscape. After years of volatility, we’re finally entering a period of stability where LNG is starting to resemble any other commodity. That’s a positive development. The market now includes numerous participants involved in producing, selling, trading, and purchasing LNG, and all are influenced bydemand, supply, and pricing trends. Previously, only a handful of companies dominated, with inflexible volumes and prices, and little connection to real-time market changes.

On My Mind: Episode 49 – January 16, 2026

In this episode, we revisit the subject of the ‘Politicization’ of LNG.

The LNG industry experienced significant global expansionduring the 1980s and 1990s. At that time, LNG export projects were primarily located in oil-producing countries with large national oil companies and operated or financed by international majors such as Shell, Total, and Exxon,among others. Host governments—such as Indonesia (via Pertamina), Malaysia (via Petronas), Algeria (via Sonatrach), Abu Dhabi (via ADNOC), and Russia (via Gazprom)—were directly involved in regulating the pricing of feed gas, determining the volume and price of LNG sales contracts, and designating destinations for LNG exports. These transactions were largely conducted on a government-to-government basis.

The entry of US LNG exporters has since transformed thislandscape. Unlike traditional models, US LNG exports are dominated by independent companies operating without oversight from a national energy company. International firms such as Shell, Total, and Exxon have had limited involvement in US LNG, primarily acting as offtakers rather than producers—with the recent commencement of Golden Pass LNG serving as an exception. While the US government provides necessary permits, it generally adopts a hands-off approach once a project is operational. Volumes, quantities, and destinations face minimal regulation, with decisions made predominantly on commercial and technical grounds.

However, this dynamic appears to be shifting. The currentadministration has enhanced the efficiency of the permitting process while also becoming more proactive in encouraging global LNG consumers to purchase and invest in US LNG. The US industry now stands as the largest supplier in the world, and notably the principal supplier to Europe—a growth achieved largely without significant intervention from either the US or receiving country governments. This raises the question of whether recent increased governmentalinvolvement is warranted or potentially counterproductive.

Additionally, I address the potential impact of proposed‘second-derivative’ sanctions targeting countries engaged in trade with Iran—including several major buyers of US LNG. It remains uncertain whether these measures will significantly affect the US–Iran relationship.

A brief analysis is included regarding the recently reported$6/MMBTU liquefaction cost cited by Venture Global, which is three times higher than the cost of their initial project. This escalation is likely attributable to increased capital expenditure, construction, and labor costs currentlyaffecting the US Gulf Coast.

Finally, I conclude on a positive note concerning the latestupdates about Texas LNG. Having served as Founder and CEO of Texas LNG for nine years, I am pleased to note that a final investment decision (FID) is anticipated in the coming months. Congratulations to all involved.

Feedback and comments are always welcome.

@onmymind@vivekchandra @gulfstreamlng

In this episode, I take a broad perspective to examine howlow oil prices are affecting the LNG and gas industry. I cover topics such as reduced supplies of associated gas (which could push feed gas prices higher), limited exploration budgets that may hinder discoveries of new gas sources, andless motivation for energy companies to develop stranded gas fields.

Since much of the global gas market still relies onoil-linked pricing, both contracted and spot LNG prices in these regions will fall. This drop affects the profit margins of existing LNG exporters, who must sell into these markets. Importing countries are unlikely to agree to higher linked prices when current rates are low, so greenfield project FIDs will be hit first. US projects face additional challenges with rising costs, possible tariffs, and market concentration along the Gulf Coast.

A significant portion of new investment has come from MiddleEastern energy companies and sovereign funds. As their earnings depend heavily on oil sales, lower prices mean they have less incentive and fewer resources to invest in fresh LNG ventures.

Nevertheless, there is reason for optimism. Over time, lowerprices may attract new users and entrants to LNG, expanding demand and growing the overall market. Ideally, this growth will help absorb new projects and bring LNG prices back to more sustainable levels.

Gulfstream LNG is currently focused on the permittingprocess and isn't rushing toward FID decisions. Thanks to our modest size and competitive cost structure, we can afford to wait until conditions for FID become more favorable.

Comments are always welcome!

@onmymind @vivekchandra @gulfstreamlng

On My Mind: Episode 47: November 6 2025

In this episode, two recent trends in the LNG industry arediscussed.

The first is the increasing acceptance of cost overruns in project capital expenditure. Approximately a decade ago, as the US LNG export industry was developing, many projects targeted capex at $500/tonne or lower. Prior to this, some projects, such as Equatorial Guinea, achieved prices as low as$250/tonne. In recent years, however, announced capex figures have risen to $1500/tonne or higher for many projects across North America and other regions. Factors contributing to this change include rising labor costs, inflation, and higher steel prices.

Cost overruns can have significant effects on hostgovernment tax revenues. For example, Australia experienced widespread project cost increases, resulting in minimal tax receipts over a decade of LNG production. In situations where the host government operates under a ProductionSharing Agreement, such as in Mozambique and other locations, cost overruns may be reimbursed by the host government, which can delay profitability and reduceearly tax income. The poorest people in the world will, in essence, pay for cost overruns of the largest companies of the world!   We all need to bring fiscal discipline back and control our costs.

The second topic addressed is the development of FloatingLNG (FLNG) projects. Following the initial launch of Shell Prelude in Australia less than ten years ago, FLNG was considered a relatively new and expensive technology. Subsequent successful projects in Malaysia, West Africa, andMozambique have led to new FLNG initiatives in South America, Canada, the US, and elsewhere. FLNG technology remains complex and can be advantageous in areaswith limited or unsafe land access, offshore fields that are distant or small, where where land construction costs are elevated. However, risks remain, particularly if vessels are constructed by less experienced shipyards or operated by companies without the necessary technical or financial resources to address potential issues.

Comments always welcome!

@onmymind @vivekchandra @gulfstreamlng

In this episode, I pick up on last month’s conversationabout irrational optimism around LNG projects reaching FID.

 I focus first on the US, which has seen five FIDs so farthis year —and another five could follow soon. Big projects are also being announced in Argentina, Canada, and possibly Mozambique, among other places.

I'm sceptical that the market can easily absorb such large volumes of new LNG; we’re already witnessing softer prices in major markets, partly because low oil prices are weakening LNG prices further.

China, once viewed as a limitless source of LNG demand, hasslowed its demand growth by boosting domestic gas production, expanding renewables, and increasing pipeline imports. Now, China mostly buys Russian LNGdirectly.

A major concern is that 90% of the new US LNG salescontracts go to portfolio players and traders—the so-called 'middlemen'—who have no intention to consume the LNG themselves. For example, Sempra’s Port Arthur Phase 2 is selling just 1.5 MTPA out of 13 MTPA to an actual end-user(JERA); the rest is contracted to parties who must resell it for more than they paid. Notably, 5 MTPA is sold back to Sempra, meaning 40% of the facility's output is bought by its own subsidiary. If the price gap between US LNG and global markets narrows, this setup could spell trouble.

 As I said in the last episode, this is a good time to be inthe permitting process in the US and elsewhere (such as Canada)… but may not be a good time to be committing to add yet more volumes into a saturated market.  Gulfstream LNG is taking this prudent approach.

To wrap up, I comment briefly on the recent Venture Global vBP arbitration settlement, and compare it to the Venture Global v Shell case from a few months back.

 Comments always welcome!

@onmymind @vivekchandra @gulfstreamlng

On My Mind: Episode 45: September 15 2025

In this episode, I take a more somber view of the industry than my normal optimistic view. I have recently returned from Gastech, the giant industry gathering that was held in Milan, Italy last week. Instead of positive thoughts, I left with a feeling of concern which can be summed up as 'Irrational Exuberance.'

Much like the crazy dotcom era twenty years ago when this term was first used, we are in danger of losing the plot. The gas /LNG industry needs incremental growth to meet incremental energy demand. As I have argued in past episodes, we live in a world of Energy Addition, not Energy Transition. If we grow too fast, and bring too much supply to the market too quickly, we are in danger of upsetting the delicate balance of supply vs demand.

At Gastech, there were countless projects and expansion projects tripping over themselves try to get to Final Investment Decision…many of them on the back of offtake agreements with traders and aggregators – not end users. All of this in an environment of low LNG prices which are likely to persist in the near term. And, on the other side of the ledger, we have high capex, high steel prices, high interest rates and high uncertainty of tariffs and other trade barriers.

This could get ugly before it gets better. The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) that is driving projects all over the world to FID may not match the steady incremental demand growth expected. A lot of project developers and equity investors could be impacted if project economics don't live up to optimistic forecasts.

This is a good time to be in the permitting process in the US and elsewhere (such as Canada)… but may not be a good time to be committing to add yet more volumes into a saturated market. Gulfstream LNG is taking this prudent approach. For others, I suggest slowing down the mad rush to FID!