On Peace

As Russia withdraws resources from Myanmar to focus on Ukraine, China has filled the void by publicly supporting the junta. Meanwhile, the situation inside Myanmar continues to deteriorate, with “the military only able to hang on [to power] by using violence of tragic proportions,” says USIP’s Jason Tower.

Over the weekend, Imran Khan became the first Pakistani prime minister to be ousted in a no-confidence vote. USIP's Tamanna Salikuddin says, "There are a lot of reasons why he lost the support of [the] military establishment and also parliament" but that "his downfall really, number one, was the economy."

Israel’s Negev summit with top Arab and U.S. diplomats was “groundbreaking” for the region. “You could not think of a more dramatic way to underscore the acceptance of Israel into the Arab world,” says USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen.

With Russian forces reportedly shifting focus to Donbas, USIP’s Donald Jensen says, “Overall the Russian military has been unmasked to be … quite a bit more of a paper tiger than expected. But that doesn't mean they're not dangerous or effective in some places.”

While there are similarities between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s aggression toward Taiwan, USIP’s Andrew Scobell says the two situations are markedly different upon closer inspection: “Russia also likes to flout international norms [while] China largely pretends to be playing by them.”

For the first time in 20 years, USIP's Donald Jensen says we've seen cracks in Russian elites' allegiance to Putin: "While they're still amorphous and not very organized, they're clearly unhappy." And if the war drags on and losses mount, "Putin has a big, long-term problem on his hands."

As Ukraine's military continues to resist Russian advances throughout the country, USIP's Ambassador William Taylor offers the latest updates on the situation, saying the "the international tide is clearly turning against Russia" as more nations implement sanctions and that "Russia is now a pariah state."

The pandemic has “really laid bare some inequalities” facing those with disabilities, says USIP’s Elizabeth Murray. But last week’s Global Disability Summit offered “an opportunity for disability inclusion to be integrated across U.S. foreign policy,” particularly when it comes to peacebuilding programs. 

As Pakistani leaders quarrel with the neighboring Afghan Taliban over the demarcation of their shared border, USIP’s Asfandyar Mir says Pakistan’s own Taliban insurgency has “been boosted by the example of the Afghan Taliban … if things continue to escalate over the medium term, things become very difficult for Pakistan.”

After the annual PeaceCon featured climate change as one of the conference’s main themes, USIP’s Tegan Blaine says, “It’s no longer possible to say that climate change does not intersect with peacebuilding. The realities are there … we need to be more honest about what the likely impacts are going to be.”