On The Markets

Bonds are historically known to be the safe part of your portfolio, but over the past decade they've seemed anything but. Looking at rolling 10-year returns, U.S. bonds are now in their worst stretch in more than 200 years of data. The good news is that yields are a lot higher now, which may set up a very different decade ahead for bond investors.

This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principal Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir:
• A look at bonds’ lost decade, and how this stretch compares to every other decade going back to the 1930s.
• What higher bond yields today could mean for investors who rely on their portfolio for income.
• Stock valuations are close to their 1999 highs. What could the pattern of bonds be telling us about other asset classes?
Full video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/tc29n1F2A0I
Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis

CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro: This Week's Topics
1:47 Lifetime Taxes by State
3:21 Join the Live Stream
3:54 Sentiment: AAII, Fear and Greed, Bitcoin
5:10 Investors Flowing Into Bond Funds
5:40 Nominal vs. Real Bond Yields
7:34 Yield and Duration as Return Expectations
8:49 What Is a Lost Decade?
9:29 Developed vs. Emerging Market Yields
10:28 10-Year Treasury Returns by Decade
11:29 Bianco: Bond Returns Back to 1793
12:14 The 1870s Railroad Boom
14:54 Do Coupons Count in a Lost Decade?
15:31 How Coupons Cushion Rising Rates
16:47 Growth and the ISM Services PMI
17:20 Equity Issuance vs. Buybacks
18:05 AI Capex Concentration
18:55 Total U.S. Debt vs. GDP
20:28 The Shiller CAPE Ratio
22:23 Three Lost Decades in Stocks
25:01 Valuations and Sequence Risk
25:55 CAPE and Subsequent Returns
27:03 Could You Withstand a Lost Decade?
28:38 Why Market Timing Signals Fail
29:29 Sector Drawdowns Since Jackson Hole
31:28 Dynamic Pricing in Grocery Stores
33:10 Maryland's New Grocery Pricing Law
34:08 A DJ Set at the NYSE
35:02 It's All Money: Social Security Timing
35:57 Technicals: S&P 500
36:41 Russell 2000 Small Caps
37:12 Developed and Emerging Markets
38:25 Bond Market Technicals: AGG
39:16 Long-Term Bonds: TLT
39:53 Gold Treading Water
40:49 Bitcoin's Golden Cross
41:50 10-Year and 30-Year Treasury Trends
43:13 So, Did Bonds Hit a Bottom?
43:39 Wrapping Up

References: https://x.com/charliebilello/status/2107157376252133696 https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/2096729819472138571 https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/2096729823154434228 https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf https://www.finra.org/investors/insights/bonds-interest-rate-changes-duration https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/news-publications/inside-supply-management-magazine/blog/2026/2026-10/ism-pmi-reports-roundup-september-2026-services/ https://x.com/jasonfurman https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/2106373679311618528 https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/table/by-month https://ria.disciplinefunds.com/2025/12/31/the-financial-planners-2026-outlook/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-how-much-youll-pay-in-taxes-in-your-life/ https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/maryland-law-prevent-dynamic-grocery-pricing/

The September jobs report came in well short of expectations, and stocks rose anyway. On The Markets this week looks at why a weaker payroll print pushed the odds of an October Fed hike lower, and why that still leaves mortgages above 7% and the 10-year near 5.2%.
This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP®, Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir:
• Market was flat for the week? Don’t look under the hood...
• Worried about a divided house, senate and executive branch? How have markets performed historically during periods of divided government?

Full video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/NRy6VpHN2b4
Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis

CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro: This Week's Topics
1:42 AI Thumbnails and the Algorithm
3:15 Midterms: S&P 500 Returns After Elections
5:23 Divided Government and Annual Returns
6:33 Sentiment: AAII, Fear and Greed, Bitcoin
7:26 Treasury Rates: The Story of the Year
9:09 Rates as a Hurdle Rate
9:48 Inflation Sensitivity and 2022 Returns
11:24 Growth and Inflation Regimes
13:42 Bonds, 2008 and Deflation
14:20 Starbucks Closures and 2008 Echoes
15:10 Recency Bias and Market Timing
17:00 75% of S&P 500 Stocks Down in September
17:22 Real Estate Affordability
19:02 A Beckett Real Estate Market
19:37 The Wealth Effect
20:24 Equal Weight vs. Cap Weight S&P 500
21:57 Equal Weight's Weekly Losing Streak
22:29 Bilello on the Bond Market Drawdown
24:08 Bonds vs. European Stocks
25:33 Household Wealth Led by Equities
26:16 Average Up Year vs. Average Down Year
27:16 The U.S. Equity Risk Premium
28:58 Why Rates Are Rising: Deficits
30:02 AI Hyperscaler Borrowing
30:29 Does Presidential Style Move Bonds?
32:11 Chris on Bonds as Loans
33:26 Oil and the 10-Year Treasury
34:03 Nominal GDP Growth
34:31 PCE Inflation
35:25 Unemployment Rate at 4.2%
36:17 Unemployment Below 5%: Historical Context
37:33 Do the Jobs Numbers Add Up?
39:13 Why Stocks Rose on a Weak Jobs Report
40:53 Technicals: S&P 500 Heat Map
41:39 Big Tech Supporting the Index
43:02 RSP vs. SPY: Market Breadth
43:41 Small Caps: IWM vs. SPY
44:34 Emerging and Developed Markets
45:22 Stocks Above the 50-Day Average
46:03 Stocks Above the 200-Day Average
47:01 VIX and MOVE Volatility Check
47:41 High-Yield Debt Appetite
48:22 Discretionary vs. Staples
49:45 The 2-Year, 10-Year and Mortgages
50:57 Daren on Oil's $80 to $100 Range
51:51 Gold Near $4,000
52:06 Bitcoin Chart Check
52:46 Daren's Base Case for Year-End
53:21 Jobless Claims and Personal Income
53:43 30-Year Mortgage Rates Near 7.2%
54:51 Chart Check: Tractor Supply
56:30 The COVID Homesteading Boom
58:49 Chart Check: FICO and AI Disruption
1:00:13 Disney and Customer Experience
1:00:49 Peter Lynch: Buy What You Know
1:01:43 Falling in Love With a Stock
1:03:27 Wrapping Up

References:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm h
ttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/jobs-report-september-2026.html https://schwabnetwork.com/articles/closing-bell-stocks-rally-as-weak-jobs-report-cuts-fed-hike-odds https://x.com/mikezaccardi/status/2104539369046442130 https://x.com/mikezaccardi/status/2104537608596475916 https://x.com/barchart/status/2105412942531338290 https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2105400135970631839 https://x.com/Barchart/status/2105449669639762041 https://x.com/charliebilello/status/2105299184756650273 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61984 https://x.com/barchart/status/2104841143699530044 https://x.com/rbadvisors/status/2105290749390790678 https://ycharts.com https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2026 https://x.com/charliebilello/status/2106041060354924917 https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-average-728

The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.48 percent on September 24, the highest since 2004, with the 10-year near 5.21 percent and the 2-year at 4.93 percent. This week on On The Markets we explain why bond yields are rising after the September 16 hike, and what that move means for mortgage rates, stocks, and borrowing costs.
This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP®, Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir:
• Why are AI competitors all asking for a slowdown all of a sudden?
• China came to DC...what could that mean for the bond market?
• Why the key with the bond market is not where it goes, it’s how fast.
Is this structural decline? Or just the September Daren predicted might be coming?

Full video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/2k8Y0hvrOIM
Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis

CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro: This Week's Topics
0:52 Show Open
1:23 AI Thumbnails and the Show's History
2:28 Meme: The Dark Knight Rises and the Bond Market
4:01 Can Treasury Control the Long End?
5:46 AI Leaders at the UN Security Council
7:10 Regulation, Moats and Low-Cost Chinese Models
9:10 Suspect Timing and the IPO Question
10:54 U.S. Data Center Capacity vs. the World
12:44 Data Centers, Power Draw and Affordability
14:05 The Mag 7 Are Driving the Market
14:52 Data Center Debt and Rising Rates
15:37 Why Higher Yields Can Pull Money From Stocks
16:36 Nasdaq Moves Toward 23-Hour Trading
19:19 Xi Visits DC: Chinese Banks and Treasuries
22:23 AP: Diplomats Told to Say "Super Intelligence"
22:52 It's All Money: A Deep Dive on Bonds
23:31 Technicals: The S&P 500 Bull Flag
25:10 The Weekly Close and the Qs
25:55 Mega Caps vs. the Utility Sector
27:06 Paul Harvey and the Rest of the Story
27:39 RSP: The Equal-Weight S&P 500
28:46 IWM: Small Caps and a Weekly Double Top
30:22 Midterm-Year Seasonality
31:23 Breadth: A Look Under the Hood
32:43 TIPS, the VIX and the MOVE Index
34:06 The 2-Year and 10-Year: Why Speed Matters
35:16 Mortgage Rates Top 7%
36:17 AI and the S-Curve
36:51 From Radio to the Internet
37:50 Dollar Index
38:14 Gold
39:15 Bitcoin
40:00 Humble Pie: Meta and Muse
41:16 Meta's New Glasses
42:06 Muse, Marketplace and Financial Services
44:16 Meta's One-Week Rebound
45:24 The Puke Point and Trend Reversals
46:42 TLT and Diversification
47:50 Schwab Sells Off on AI Competition Fears
48:20 Wrapping Up
48:52 Closing and Sign-Off

References: https://www.reuters.com/business/us-30-year-bond-yield-rises-highest-since-2004-selloff-deepens-2026-09-24/ https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/us-treasury-yields-bonds-fed-inflation.html https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260916a1.pdf https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-average-703 https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/whats-move-index-and-why-it-might-matter https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-25/treasury-volatility-set-for-biggest-jump-in-year-as-bonds-churn https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/23/altman-amodei-un-ai-safety.html https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20260923-ai-leaders-urge-caution-at-un-with-anthropic-chief-pledging-to-slow-down https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-welcomes-xi-washington-looking-trade-win-2026-09-24/ https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/09/04/chinese-banks-turn-to-us-treasuries-after-raising-dollar-deposit-rates-sources-say https://www.nasdaq.com/docs/nasdaq-global-trading-hours-faqs https://apnews.com/article/trump-super-intelligence-rebrand-ai-diplomats-02123c7bf18c692a12b2b3e3b9ce30c5 https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/metas-muse-lights-another-fire-under-the-ai-trade-22092026 https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-street-expects-metas-ai-agent-shape-into-new-revenue-engine-2026-09-22/

This week the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent on September 16, its first hike in over three years. On this episode of On The Markets, we break down why that move is making borrowing more expensive for mortgages, credit cards, and business loans. We will unpack what the Fed is signaling on inflation and what it means for your wallet and portfolio.

This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP®, Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir:
• Rates are going up. How did the treasury market react?
• Do treasuries even matter? Why American households are more overweight in another asset class more than ever before.
• Conventional wisdom says rates up-market down...then why does Daren say “September’s alright so far”?

Full video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/cJNkIYWFQXM
Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis

CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro: This Week's Topics
0:41 Show Open
1:22 Was the Hike Already Priced In?
2:05 A 12-0 Vote: Did Warsh Have a Choice?
2:46 Warren Buffett Steps Down as Berkshire Chairman
5:32 Vibes: A Diversified "Bond" Portfolio
6:14 Fed Credibility and Independence
7:40 Politics and Expectations for the Fed
9:46 First Unanimous Fed Decision in Years
10:27 The 2-Year Treasury vs. the Fed Funds Rate
11:52 Should It Have Been 50 Basis Points?
13:15 The K-Shaped Economy and Boomer Spending
13:59 Jim Bianco on Oil and Inflation
16:00 Households at a Record Equity Allocation
16:42 TINA: There Is No Alternative
17:23 Energy: Costco, Saudi Oil and the SPR
19:29 Sentiment: AAII Bears at a 52-Week High
20:53 Canada's Counter-Tariffs by State
21:35 The Shrinking Equity Risk Premium
23:00 China's Treasury Holdings at 2008 Lows
23:43 Central Banks Shift Toward Gold
24:25 Pensions and Endowments Leave Fixed Income
25:07 Recency Bias in Asset Allocation
25:51 When an Asset Class Is Left for Dead
27:55 Importing More Inflation Than the Pandemic
28:35 Lessons From 1873: When Bonds Shine
29:58 Price-Sensitive vs. Price-Insensitive Buyers
30:42 Real Median Household Income Hits a Record
31:23 AI CapEx: The Hyperscaler Build-Out
32:50 Vibes: Dreamforce and the 49ers
36:21 Technicals: S&P 500 Decision Zone
40:34 The Qs: Large-Cap Tech Holds the Market
41:14 Seasonality and Annual Fractals
42:40 Betting Markets: Midterm Odds
44:02 Rates Up, Liquidity Still Loose
46:07 Rates vs. Liquidity Explained
49:38 The End of the Dot Plot
50:59 Market Breadth: RSP, IWM and Participation
54:26 Stocks Above the 200-Day Moving Average
55:10 VIX and MOVE Volatility Check
56:37 Gold and Bitcoin Levels to Watch
57:59 Mortgage Rates and the Housing Market
59:21 Chart Check: Salesforce
1:01:39 Wrapping Up

References: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260916a1.pdf https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20260916.pdf https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/ https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026/income-poverty-health-insurance-coverage.html https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey https://ycharts.com https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/18/buffett-stepping-down-as-berkshire-chairman.html https://x.com/rbadvisors/status/2100208328940957953

Secretary Bessent tripled long-end buybacks to push yields down, but the 10-year is holding near 4.95% and the 30-year hit 5.27% as inflation expectations repriced on tariffs and energy. Interest is growing among investors around why intervention is not working and what higher yields mean for borrowing and investing.
This week on On The Markets we break down how buybacks work, why the market is pushing back, and what that may indicate about next week's Fed meeting. This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP®, Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir:
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declares “I am the house now”
• S and P still near all-time highs? Then why is consumer sentiment at an all time low?
• Nvidia just had “record earnings”? What about the half-trillion that didn't make it to the balance sheet? We look at the “off book” commitments of the hyperscalers.

Full video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/KF3zZBUi3ZI
Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis

CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro: This Week's Topics
1:37 Welcome & Remembering 9/11 (25th Anniversary)
6:46 Bessent: "I Am the House Now" (Treasury/Yen Clip)
11:43 Treasury Buybacks Explained ($2B to $6B)
14:42 AI CapEx, OpenAI's Comeback & AI Safety Fears
18:03 Global Trade Balances & Tariff Deficit Map
20:35 Sentiment Check: AAII, Fear & Greed, Bitcoin
21:36 Consumer Sentiment vs. Top 10% Spending Power
24:47 Hot PPI/CPI Data Fuels Rate Hike Bets
29:03 Hyperscalers' $3 Trillion AI Borrowing Binge
32:11 Market Flips From Pricing Cuts to Pricing Hikes
34:04 Housing Market Craters: Sales & Starts Collapse
36:17 Housing Affordability Crisis
38:03 Bond Market Duration Risk by Scenario
39:37 Why Isn't the Market Buying the Buybacks?
42:26 Vibes Segment: Nintendo's Tariff Refund Sale
43:36 Global Liquidity Tracker & the Saudi Pipeline Attack
46:03 S&P 500 Technical Analysis
47:51 VIX Volatility Check
49:05 Oil, Ceasefire Odds & the Houthi Pipeline Strike
51:48 Magnificent Seven & the AI Bubble Debate
53:56 Hidden AI Exposure in the S&P 500 Heat Map
56:02 Gold & Silver Technical Charts
59:36 30-Year Treasury & Housing Affordability Revisited
1:01:01 Bitcoin Chart Check
1:01:33 Apple's Foldable Phone & New Hardware-Focused CEO
1:05:17 SpaceX Breakout & Grok AI Agents
1:06:09 Dollar Index & Weekly Market Wrap
1:06:46 Nike, Peloton & Disney: A Warning for AI Valuations
1:10:16 Closing Thoughts & Sign-Off

References: https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/edgy-bond-investors-unconsoled-by-bessents-big-buyback-2026-09-10/ https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/20/bessents-efforts-in-the-treasury-market-so-far-havent-worked-heres-what-else-he-can-try.html https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/20/treasury-bond-buybacks-long-term-yields.html https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/mortgages/article/why-treasurys-6-billion-bond-buyback-didnt-lower-mortgage-rates-174923069.html https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ https://ycharts.com

Mortgage rates are pushing toward 7% at 6.83% on the 30-year while the Fed held its benchmark at 3.50% to 3.75% and the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.3%. This week on On The Markets we explain why mortgage rates follow the long end of the curve and not the Fed funds rate and what doubled Treasury buybacks signal for bonds, borrowing costs and the $40 trillion debt backdrop.
This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP®, Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir:
• Are mortgages basing to go higher? Or are they starting a distribution pattern and heading lower? Daren's got the charts and his take on the situation.
• Why rates likely won’t come down despite the 2nd best jobs report of the year.
• The impact rates have had on bonds, a traditional inflation hedge.
• If you listened to the headlines this week, you probably thought he market dipped, but in fact it didn't. Let's find out why.

Full video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/w-MFbHfFHIY
Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis

CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro
3:40 Investor sentiment this week
4:11 Big number on the Jobs Report
7:11 Net interest will exceed key programs in 2036
10:55 Where did the jobs come from?
13:20 Service PMI is expansionary
14:46 Data centers outpacing all other private construction
16:20 Hyperscaler debt has doubled in nine months
17:55 Credit markets not showing signs of stress
19:16 Rates lower no matter what?
20:24 Inflation pressure broadens
22:55 Gas price increases since Iran War
25:50 Bonds have lost their hedge against inflation
27:14 Bond drawdowns are far smaller than in 2022
28:00 Rolling 10-year returns stocks vs bonds
28:20 Gold and stocks correlation finally separating
30:44 10-year treasury
31:10 Mortgage rates...dropping?
32:58 Oil this week
36:45 Gold recovered, silver may have survived
37:32 Bitcoin standing pat after a jump
38:00 Ethereum set to break out?
39:00 S&P 500 actually beat last week, equally weighted a different story
40:25 Agg bond market getting worn out?
42:15 Volatility really low

References: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/which-impacts-mortgage-rates-more-the-fed-or-10-year-treasury-yield-experts-weigh-in/ https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-average-671 https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202609 https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-55-4-august-2026-ism-services-pmi-report-302868046.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-54-6-august-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302865127.html https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62105 https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey https://ycharts.com

Fed Chairman Warsh took the stage at their annual summer meeting at Jackson Hole while mortgage rates held at 6.67% and futures priced a 64% chance of no cut in September. Short rates are set by the Fed, but it would appear long rates are now set by the market. Does it even matter that he indicated the potential for a rate hike in September? Let's find out On The Markets.
This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP®, Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir:
• What did Fed Chariman Walsh say about rates at their annual meeting at Jackson Hole now that the Fed aims to be less transparent?
• What’s your approach as an investor? A decade-wide look at diversified investing like Berkshire Hathaway vs. the boom and bust of the Nasdaq.
• Lake America? How about the Gulf Of American Homebuyers To Sellers? A look at the historic imbalance.
• Why Daren thinks you shouldn’t read into anything until Labor Day

Full video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/RlC9t3SIC1g
Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis

CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro: This Week's Topics
0:50 Show Open
1:21 Meme: The Robot Uprising CAPTCHA
2:17 What Warsh Said at Jackson Hole
3:46 How the Market Read Warsh's Comments
4:19 The 2-Year Treasury vs. the Fed Funds Rate
4:43 Jim Bianco: When the Fed Starts to Panic
5:41 Daren's Take: A New Chair in Town
8:10 Fed Lingo: Hawks, Doves, Bulls and Bears
9:16 Druckenmiller, Bessent and Warsh
10:43 Top Import Partners for Every State
12:07 Canada's Counter-Tariffs
13:01 Trade Balances and Inflation
14:31 Sentiment: AAII, Fear and Greed, Bitcoin
15:37 Why Own Bonds at All?
16:57 The Diversification Bonus
18:29 Berkshire vs. the Nasdaq in the Dot-Com Era
19:45 The World's Largest Bond Markets
21:15 30-Year Treasury Rates Since 2010
23:12 How Bond Prices Move With Rates
24:16 Net Interest as a Share of Revenue
26:56 Primary Deficit vs. Total Deficit
29:03 What the Bond Market Already Prices In
29:59 PCE Inflation Update
30:23 Bond Convexity Explained
32:49 What Could Bring Rates Down
34:08 Goldman: Real Yields and S&P 500 Valuations
34:53 Housing: Sellers vs. Buyers
35:55 Our Bond Episode on It's All Money
36:44 The Most Hated Asset Class
37:33 Technicals: The Bond Aggregate
39:47 Low Volume Until Labor Day
41:01 Midterms and Market Volatility
41:49 Insider Trading and Prediction Markets
43:17 S&P 500 Weekly Consolidation
44:01 Gold and Bitcoin Levels to Watch
45:02 The Number Two Cryptocurrency
45:28 Warsh Pushes Up the Front End of the Curve
46:48 Gold and Silver Trends
47:12 Oil and Geopolitical Watch
49:29 The Return of the AI Trade
51:10 Debt, the Dollar and the Reserve Currency
53:15 Chart Check: SpaceX
54:14 When Market Leadership Shifts
58:56 Wrapping Up

References: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-july-2026 https://www.gomarkets.com/en/articles/jackson-hole-fed-policy-impact-key-assets https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260916a1.pdf https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-hold-steady-9 https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2026/08/canada-announces-targeted-countermeasures-and-substantive-support-for-workers-and-businesses-in-response-to-us-tariffs.html https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-the-top-import-partner-of-every-u-s-state/ https://www.redfin.com/news/buyers-vs-sellers-july-2026/ https://www.redfin.com/news/press-releases/buyers-vs-sellers-august-2026/

The national debt crossed $40.05 trillion on August 18 as the 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.3% to its highest level since 2007. To support market liquidity, the Treasury will at least double its long-end buyback operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation beginning September 9, covering 10-to-20 and 20-to-30 year securities. To the average investor, those events may be hard to comprehend.
This week we take on the bond market with perspective on On The Markets from Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP®, Chris Sipes CFP®  and Marketing Director Dano Weir:
• How the war in Iran, Japanese oil and “bond vigilantes” all coalesced into a historic extension of buyback operations this week.
• US National Debt passes $40T. Which President borrowed the most?  Hint: he’s not currently in office.
• US government is facing a spending cliff next year- what will they do when their obligations finally exceed their income?
• Biggest trading loss of all time was recorded this month, more than double the 2nd place on the list!
• Plus despite the Fed’s attempt to control the bond market, Daren’s got the charts to show the market’s calling Bessent’s bluff.

Full video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/uB5ohFCzVZE
Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis

CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro: This Week's Topics
1:08 Show Open
1:39 Homer Simpson Quote of the Week
2:20 Meme: Bessent vs. the 30-Year Yield
2:46 Yields Snap Back After the Buyback News
4:29 Why Long-Term Rates Matter for the Debt
4:55 From $20 Trillion to $40 Trillion in a Decade
6:35 Beef Prices and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
7:42 Live Stream Shout-Out
8:22 US Still Leads Gold Reserves
9:50 Gold and Bitcoin Jump
10:24 Nixon and the End of the Gold Link
12:49 A Multipolar World
15:08 The Treasury Buyback Explained
15:25 What the Yield Curve Is
17:47 Short-Term Bills to Buy Back Long Bonds
19:39 The Bond Vigilantes
20:36 Investor Sentiment This Week
22:09 Daren on Bitcoin Short Squeezes
23:34 Buybacks vs. Net Issuance
24:53 The Treasury Announcement Didn't Last
26:11 Japan, Oil and US Treasuries
28:38 US Debt by President
32:50 Debt Growth Rates by Administration
33:23 Flat Revenues, Rising Spending
34:09 Net Interest and Discretionary Spending
35:25 What Bond Investors Worry About
37:11 Credit Risk and Interest Rates
38:31 Stocks With Dividends Greater Than the 10-Year
40:20 Rising 30-Year Yields vs. Stock Rallies
41:14 Situational Awareness: Biggest Trading Loss Ever
42:55 Private Equity Ownership of Insurers
44:16 Big Tech's Off-Balance-Sheet Debt
45:34 New Home Prices vs. Resale
46:38 Nike and Brand Sentiment
48:29 Walmart and High P/E Stocks
49:17 Our Bond Market Episode on It's All Money
50:54 S&P 500 This Week
54:02 The Heat Map and Market Concentration
55:41 The Equal-Weight Heat Map
56:24 Global Liquidity Tracker
1:00:02 The Yield Curve and the Long End
1:01:53 Inflating Out of the Debt
1:05:04 Gold This Week
1:06:21 Gold and the Warsh Nomination
1:09:41 Bitcoin's Big Candle
1:11:00 Ethereum Levels to Watch
1:13:16 The 30-Year Yield Chart
1:16:29 Oil This Week
1:18:04 The Dollar This Week
1:19:01 10-Year This Week
1:19:21 NVIDIA This Week
1:19:50 Coca-Cola Year to Date
1:21:46 Wrapping Up

References: https://www.reuters.com/world/us-debt-crosses-40-trillion-threshold-after-doubling-under-trump-biden-2026-08-19/ https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0607 https://www.treasurydirect.gov/help-center/faqs/buyback-faqs/ https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/17/treasury-yields-federal-reserve-fomc-minutes.html https://www.reuters.com/business/us-30-year-yields-hit-highest-level-since-2007-war-oil-worries-fester-2026-08-18/ https://www.barchart.com/story/news/4011483/treasuries-have-reclaimed-the-yield-crown-from-dividend-stocks-heres-how-income-investors-can-adapt https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61882 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62105 https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2026/08/17/the-35-billion-ai-trading-loss-exposes-the-real-risk-of-leverage/

The market just hit a record high on bad economic news — and that's not a typo. Three Fed officials just voted to raise rates while investors are betting on a September cut, and this week's CPI and PPI reports could decide who's right. We're breaking down what's really driving this rally, and whether it's built to last — let's find out On The Markets.
This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP®, Chris Sipes CFP®  and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:
• Consumer spending came in soft? Consumer confidence is even lower? Rate hikes possibily on the horizon?  We discuss why the “honey badger market” just don’t care.
• Why data centers are being exempted from selling shares in a way that other businesses are not.
• Corporate bank lending hits an all time low.  Why does private credit rule the kingdom?

Full video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/N85zqDToIMo
Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis

CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro: This Week's Topics
0:54 Show Open
1:24 Back to School for Three Dads
4:33 Career Earnings Adjusted for Inflation
6:04 Gold vs. the Dollar Over Time
6:44 One Ounce of Gold and a Good Suit
7:31 This Week's Economic Data
8:04 Dovish vs. Hawkish Fed
8:48 Japan's Yen Intervention One Week Later
12:09 Sentiment Indicators This Week
13:33 Producer Price Index Downtick
14:33 Consumer Price Index Downtrend
15:22 Housing Sales Remain Low
16:43 Mortgage Lock-In for Would-Be Sellers
17:08 Private Debt Markets
17:29 Bank Lending to Corporations Below 20%
18:47 SEC Exempts Data Center Bonds from Securitization Rules
20:00 Hyperscaler Credit Default Swap Spreads Widening
21:38 The Soup Line: Bondholders vs. Stockholders
22:47 Goldman Sachs on Off-Balance-Sheet Leases
23:58 Deferred Payments and Hidden Obligations
24:42 Are Hyperscaler Earnings Real?
25:29 Bond Yields, Growth and Valuations
26:35 The Largest CapEx-Driven Boost to GDP
27:42 S&P 500 Profit Margins at a Record
27:56 Why Profit Margins Tend to Revert
29:08 Live Stream Shout-Out
29:43 S&P Energy Companies vs. Tech Companies
31:39 Bond Allocations Declining
32:59 ExxonMobil Since 2020
33:28 Blood in the Streets
34:02 The Lakers Sale and Private Credit
37:13 When the Tide Goes Out
37:24 The Ohtani Deferred Contract
38:31 S&P 500 This Week
39:27 Tariff Refund Checks
40:21 Daren's Liberation Day Call
42:04 Midterm Betting Market Odds
42:52 Fed Hike Not Coming?
43:18 CME FedWatch Odds
44:14 Warsh Drops Forward Guidance
45:45 Back to the 2% Target
47:03 Retail Sales, Core CPI and Jobless Claims
47:59 S&P 500 Heat Map
49:06 The 11 Sectors This Week
50:00 Oil This Week
50:51 The Strategic Petroleum Reserve
51:06 SPY Breakout
51:49 SPY vs. Equal-Weight RSP
52:26 Is NVIDIA Still Propping Up the Market?
53:11 VIX This Week
54:07 Why September Can Be Choppy
54:32 The Dollar This Week
56:16 The Rat's Nest of Cords
57:14 Bonds and the 10-Year Treasury
59:00 Gold This Week
59:40 Bitcoin This Week
1:00:48 Crypto Hacks and Investor Confidence
1:02:14 Wrapping Up
1:02:28 Our RMD Episode on It's All Money

References: https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sp-500-notches-record-high-close-as-rate-hike-worries-ease https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_08122026.htm https://www.reuters.com/business/us-retail-sales-unexpectedly-fall-july-2026-08-14/ https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html https://apnews.com/article/warsh-federal-reserve-inflation-interest-rate-18c005515444abd2043ad113c9849407 https://www.apollo.com/institutional/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/the-financial-system-is-changing https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-sec-exempts-certain-data-center-bonds-key-securitization-rules-2026-08-10/ https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/14/ai-infrastructure-debt-leverage-risks.html https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/13/these-charts-show-why-stocks-keep-rallying-profit-margins-are-highest-on-record.html

Why should Japan's currency have anything to do with your US tech company investment portfolio?  What if...it had everything to do with the entire market?  One carelessly or carefully left note from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sent the Yen Carry Trade straight to the top of the headlines this week, and we're going to break it down, On The Markets.
This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP®, Chris Sipes CFP®  and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:
• What AI dropoff?  How unexpected earnings and a 59th end to the Iran war sent the market to new all time highs this week.
• The surprising chart that shows home affordability may actually be coming down, if you’re employed.
• Being employed is becoming more difficult as 2026 wears on.  What new jobs numbers means for the market.

Full video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/ZwuVZRJWV4s
Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis

CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro: This Week's Topics
0:48 Show Open
1:19 A Friday Morning Show
1:30 Bessent's Yen Signal and Japan's Treasuries
3:04 Dollar-Yen Chart and Suspected Intervention
3:51 Treasury Supply and Mortgage Rates
4:25 S&P 500 at All-Time Highs
5:43 The 20-Period Moving Average
6:32 Iran Headlines and the Midterms
7:24 SpaceX Finding a Bottom?
7:52 The Magnificent Seven and Gold
8:35 The Latest Jobs Data
9:03 Silver, Hiring and AI
9:41 Is the Market Healthy?
10:04 Why Is the U.S. Buying Yen?
10:26 What's Behind the Yen's Slide?
11:18 How Japan Defends Its Currency
11:50 Selling Euros to Buy Yen
12:15 The Bessent Notepad Photo
12:45 The Soap Opera of Currency Markets
13:55 Japan's Ministry of Finance and Debt
14:56 Bessent vs. The Wall Street Journal
15:46 Confidence and Bank Runs
16:38 Central Bank Credibility
17:13 The Fed Put and Risk Premiums
17:45 The Bull Market Meme
18:35 What Is a Fed Put?
20:16 Robert Shiller on Future Bubbles
21:02 Risk Is Transferred, Not Destroyed
21:53 Warren Buffett on IPOs
22:49 SpaceX Lockup Expiration
23:44 Iran Deal Memes
24:35 Public and Private AI Spending
26:04 Conditions for a Pullback
26:35 Credit to Variant Perception
27:04 Investor Sentiment and Dissavings
27:48 CNN Fear & Greed Index
28:20 Bitcoin on the Sidelines
29:17 The Coldcard Wallet Hack
31:15 Interest Rates: Jurrien Timmer's Chart
32:28 Crowding Out and Bear Steepening
33:31 Why Long-Term Rates Are Rising
34:02 Bank of America on Credibility Shocks
35:56 Wages Outpacing Home Prices?
36:49 Jobs and Hours Worked
37:48 The Work Week Since 1850
38:42 Live Stream Note
39:12 AI CapEx Boom vs. the Housing Boom
40:01 Data Centers and Energy
40:57 Yield Curve Inversion and Recessions
42:23 The Yield Curve Today
43:19 AI and Hiring
44:58 Gold and the Money Supply
46:09 Is Warsh Less Hawkish?
46:53 Our RMD Episode on It's All Money
47:52 Closing Thoughts
49:12 Wrapping Up

References: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/what-is-yen-carry-trade-2026-09-09/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bessents-to-do-list-buy-5-10-billion-worth-japanese-yen-reuters-photo-shows-2026-07-31/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-treasury-undertakes-intervention-yen-market-ft-reports-2026-08-01/ https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-shakes-up-currency-markets-with-talk-unusual-yen-buying-via-selling-euros-2026-08-03/ https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fima-repo-facility.htm https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/why-bessent-is-leaning-on-the-fed-to-help-prop-up-japans-currency-85794909 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/jobs-report-july-2026.html https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jurrien-timmer-fidelity_long-term-bond-yields-are-on-the-move-again-activity-7491206491291602944-mIED https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/the-ai-capex-boom-is-building-twice-as-fast-as-the-housing-boom https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2026/08/04/over-100-million-in-bitcoin-stolen-by-numerous-hackers-how-a-software-bug-made-it-possible/