The World Economic Update highlights the quarter’s most important and emerging trends. Discussions cover changes in the global marketplace with special emphasis on current economic events and their implications for U.S. policy. This series is presented by the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies. MALLABY: Well, welcome, everybody, to today’s Council on Foreign Relations World Economic Update with, on my far right, Lewis Alexander from Nomura Securities; Jan Hatzius from Goldman Sachs; Isabelle Mateos y Lago from BlackRock. I’m Sebastian Mallaby from the Council, and I’ll be presiding over the discussion this morning. So I think a fair summary of where we are with the world economy is that it’s growing moderately. The OECD reported fairly recently that growth in the G-20 is the lowest since 2013, but it’s still growing. We’ve got 2.2 percent forecast for 2019 in the U.S., 1.3 (percent) in the euro area, 1 percent in Japan, 6.1 percent or so in China. You’ve got pretty much full employment in the U.S., Japan, the U.K.—although not in Western Europe, where structural unemployment remains pretty high. But you’ve still got stuff to talk about, to worry about. That’s our job here. That’s what we’ll be doing. You’ve got negative growth in the last quarter in Germany and Britain, disruption of the oil markets in the Middle East, full-scale disaster in Argentina. So there’s no shortage of things for these folks to comment on. So let’s start with oil, since that is the most recent uncertainty. Maybe start with Jan. The first news kind of headlines after the drone attack on the Saudi infrastructure was that this was the biggest inter-day spike since 1990. And I’m wondering whether these headlines, in your view, exaggerate the impact on the world economy. HATZIUS: Yeah, I mean, there was clearly a big inter-day spike, but I would say that they do exaggerate the impact from the perspective of the overall impulse from oil prices to growth and inflation. For that it’s not really the day-to-day moves that matter, but really more the moves over several quarters or a year or so. And on that basis, we’re still I think in reasonable shape. We had seen a negative impulse from oil prices to growth and a positive impulse to inflation a year ago, but with the decline that’s occurred since then even with the backup here these effects are gradually fading. And even at the current level, in our view they’re likely to turn into, you know, small positives on growth and, you know, somewhat less positive numbers on inflation, maybe slightly negative numbers. So I mean, these are all moves that are sort of at the margin, and I don’t think that anybody can really argue seriously that this significantly changes the economic outlook on its own. The question, I think, is really more—and that’s probably more a question for security experts—what does this say about the vulnerability of oil infrastructure, and what does it say about, you know, future attacks or military conflict in the—in the Middle East? And you know, the oil market, obviously, tries to come up with some kind of judgment on that, and I think at the moment the judgment is that, you know, it’s probably not such a huge change in the—in the risk profile. But we’ll see. MALLABY: Isabelle, do you think that the description—I mean, Jan’s given an overall description. I think you’re talking about the U.S. mainly when you give that answer? HATZIUS: I’m talking, no, actually more about the global impact. I mean, the—since the oil price is basically global, the impulses from oil, you know, are likely to be relatively small. Obviously, the signs are different, the magnitudes are different for a given change in oil prices. But over the last year we just haven’t seen that much of a change. That’s really my main point. MALLABY: Isabelle, would you agree that, you know, even if you think about a region like Europe where the balance of payments is a bit more exposed than in the U.S., it’s not a huge