One Lucky Dog

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Tom Sosnoff and Scott Sheridan open with a number worth paying attention to: US options volume just hit 71 million contracts a day, up from 61 million a year ago — and it has nothing to do with the market getting better at pricing risk. Tony Battista joins mid-show for bat trades, ratio spreads, and a plain-English breakdown of Vega, the one options Greek most retail traders never bother to check. The session also covers the August jobs report blowout (economists missed by four standard deviations), rate hike odds jumping to 59% in real-time, and what near-50/50 prediction market odds on a Democratic congressional sweep actually mean for your portfolio heading into November. Dog Pound questions cover everything from IV Rank vs IV Percentile and the Rosh Hashanah trade rule to strategies for a $10K account and when to roll a strangle.

#lossdog #tomsosnoff #oneluckydoglive #optionstrading #stockmarket #interestrates #investing

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:21 Show opens: Tom Sosnoff and Scott Sheridan

9:14 Why US options volume hit 71 million contracts a day

14:17 IV Rank vs IV Percentile: which one actually matters

17:22 SKEW above 150: how the market signals outlier risk

21:42 The Rosh Hashanah trade rule — AI finally settles it

23:33 Should young investors use leveraged ETFs?

42:06 Tony Battista joins: bat trades and ratio spreads

51:02 August jobs report: economists missed by 4 standard deviations

53:44 September rate hike odds jump to 59%

54:32 Caller: how to trade a $500K IRA at tastytrade

1:00:43 Tesla Cyber Cab launch and company news vs macro

1:12:42 Dem sweep at coin-flip odds — should you position for it?

1:21:47 Vega explained: the options Greek traders never check

US options volume crossing 71 million contracts a day reflects a structural shift in how retail investors engage with markets — options are no longer a specialist tool, they're the primary way millions of traders manage risk and take directional exposure on individual stocks. The September rate hike debate sits at the center of every portfolio decision in 2026, where a 7-percentage-point swing in Fed funds futures can happen in a single morning based on one jobs report. Prediction markets pricing a Democratic congressional sweep at near-50/50 odds are creating genuine strategic uncertainty heading into November midterms, even as historical data suggests midterm years tend to underperform non-midterm ones before snapping back sharply in Q4. Vega, the options Greek measuring an option's sensitivity to changes in implied volatility, becomes more consequential the longer low-volatility regimes persist — traders buying options in calm markets often get burned when vol contracts even if they're right on direction.

ABOUT ONE LUCKY DOG LIVE! / LOSSDOG

One Lucky Dog LIVE! is your daily wake-up call for career and financial clarity—streaming live Monday through Thursday, 8 : 30-10am CT. Hosts Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista bring decades of trading, entrepreneurial and fintech experience to optimizing our professional and portfolio worth.

Lossdog is the platform they're building to fix it. It's AI-powered software that doesn't just guess what you should earn—it calculates your real market value and shows you exactly how to increase it. No more vague salary ranges. No more wondering if you're being underpaid. Just clarity, backed by data.

The show is the conversation. The platform is the tool. Together, they're designed to help you stop leaving money on the table and start building the career you actually deserve.

📺 Watch live: Mon-Thu 8 : 30-10am CT

📞 Call in: 989-LOSSDOG<...

Join Lossdog at https://lossdog.com and please subscribe to this channel.

Tony Battista and Scott Sheridan open with the question everyone should be asking: now that stocks and bonds have been moving in the same direction for years, is the historic inverse relationship between them finally coming back — and does it take a real correction to get there? Bitcoin and Ethereum fell hard when the US renewed airstrikes on Iran, raising the real question of whether crypto is just another risk asset these days, moving with equities instead of against them. Tom Sosnoff joins mid-show to walk through the August jobs report, flag dangerous levels of VIX complacency, and explain exactly what bond prices are telling you about the Fed's next move. The show wraps with a full breakdown of calendar and diagonal spreads — profit targets, when to avoid them, and why you should never trade these in VIX.

#lossdog #tomsosnoff #oneluckydoglive #bitcoin #optionstrading #stockmarket #interestrates

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:22 Tony Battista & Scott Sheridan open

7:28 Startup IP protection: NDAs vs. trust

8:56 Stocks & bonds inverse correlation

15:09 Solo trading vs. trade desk: 87% stat

16:48 IPO valuations + the Meta $17B fine

32:03 Tony's trades: Hood, Tesla, Apple

46:06 Tom Sosnoff joins + market update

55:35 Caller: Lossdog AI & agentic tools

1:02:27 VIX complacency: the real warning sign

1:06:55 Is Bitcoin just another risk asset?

1:08:52 Politicians trading stocks: debate

1:11:21 Caller Bobby: the porta-potty trader

1:17:44 30-year mortgage rates at 6.75%

1:30:01 Calendar & diagonal spreads breakdown

The 30-year Treasury rate has climbed to 6.7% across three consecutive weeks, and the bond market is moving on its own terms again after a decade-long era of suppressed rates. Mortgage rates are back at 6.75%, putting first-time buyers — most of whom have only ever seen rates near zero — into a market where paying over asking has become standard. The VIX is sitting near historic lows even as real macro pressures stack up, which is the exact setup that tends to precede sharp volatility spikes. And crypto's behavior around Iran-related news has re-opened the debate about what Bitcoin actually is in a portfolio: inflation hedge, risk-on trade, or just price discovery happening in real time.

ABOUT ONE LUCKY DOG LIVE! / LOSSDOG

One Lucky Dog LIVE! is your daily wake-up call for career and financial clarity—streaming live Monday through Thursday, 8 : 30-10am CT. Hosts Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista bring decades of trading, entrepreneurial and fintech experience to optimizing our professional and portfolio worth.

Lossdog is the platform they're building to fix it. It's AI-powered software that doesn't just guess what you should earn—it calculates your real market value and shows you exactly how to increase it. No more vague salary ranges. No more wondering if you're being underpaid. Just clarity, backed by data.

The show is the conversation. The platform is the tool. Together, they're designed to help you stop leaving money on the table and start building the career you actually deserve.

📺 Watch live: Mon-Thu 8 : 30-10am CT

📞 Call in: 989-LOSSDOG

📧 [email protected]

🐕 Follow @wearelossdog everywhere 👉 http://linktr.ee/wearelossdog

Everyone has a number. Lossdog helps you know your number, and grow your number.

👉 Join Lossdog at https://lossdog.com/

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Join Lossdog at https://lossdog.com and please subscribe to this channel.

September just started, and the VIX hit its lowest level of 2026 right before the historically worst month for stocks kicked in. Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan, and Tony Battista break down whether chip stocks are really long-duration bond proxies in disguise, why passive index funds now controlling 54% of the US equity market may be quietly killing price discovery, and what the 30-year Treasury's 55 days above 5% — the most since 2006 — means for your portfolio. They also cover Greek Rho, agentic trades from the Lossdog AI platform, a live debate on whether global bond selloffs in Japan, Germany, and the UK represent a coordinated risk repricing, plus callers on trading indicators, bearish psychology, and what edge actually means for retail traders.

#lossdog #tomsosnoff #oneluckydoglive #interestrates #chipstocks #optionstrading #stockmarket

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:37 Morning market recap

7:48 Passive funds own 54% of market

13:05 Zero DTE and market volatility

15:19 Trading edge for retail investors

17:15 Trading a small IRA with defined risk

25:41 AI circular financing and chip capex

34:30 Agentic trades from Lossdog AI

43:07 Tony Battista joins + markets

47:06 Global bond repricing: 30-year at 5%

1:02:28 Chip stocks as bond proxies

1:14:45 September seasonality and the VIX

1:17:28 Caller: trading indicators question

1:21:10 Caller: shaking a bearish mindset

1:27:09 Greek Rho and LEAPS explained

The 30-year Treasury logging 55 days above 5% this year — the most since 2006 — doesn't exist in a vacuum: Japan's 10-year just hit levels last seen in 1996, UK and German long bonds touched multi-decade highs, and when all of that happens simultaneously, it's not four separate stories, it's a global cost-of-capital shift. Passive index funds controlling 54% of US equities and growing at roughly 4 percentage points per year means most money entering the market isn't actually evaluating what it's buying — one strategist argues the threshold where that breaks price discovery entirely sits somewhere between 75 and 83%. Chip stocks like Intel, AMD, and Nvidia behave like long-duration bonds because their value is built almost entirely on AI revenue that hasn't arrived yet — so when the 10-year climbs to 4.8%, those future cash flows get discounted harder than any other sector in the market. Greek Rho normally gets ignored because rate moves are slow and most options are short-dated, but anyone holding year-plus LEAPS through a stretch where the 30-year has been above 5% for 55 consecutive days has been carrying real rate exposure — whether they modeled it or not.

ABOUT ONE LUCKY DOG LIVE! / LOSSDOG

One Lucky Dog LIVE! is your daily wake-up call for career and financial clarity—streaming live Monday through Thursday, 8 : 30-10am CT. Hosts Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista bring decades of trading, entrepreneurial and fintech experience to optimizing our professional and portfolio worth.

Lossdog is the platform they're building to fix it. It's AI-powered software that doesn't just guess what you should earn—it calculates your real market value and shows you exactly how to increase it. No more vague salary ranges. No more wondering if you're being underpaid. Just clarity, backed by data.

The show is the conversation. The platform is the tool. Together, they're designed to help you stop leaving money on the table and start building the career you actually deserve.

📺 Watch live: Mon-Thu 8 : 30-10am CT

📞 Call in: 989-LOSSDOG

📧 [email protected]

🐕 Follow @wearelossdog everywhere 👉 http://linktr.ee/wearelossdog

...

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Join Lossdog at https://lossdog.com and please subscribe to this channel.

Markets opened September with a rough selloff — NASDAQ down 400+ handles, oil up over 2%, gold tumbling — and Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan, and Tony Battista get right into it. The headline: Goldman Sachs forecasts $1.44 trillion in corporate buybacks in 2026, making companies the single largest buyer of equities, and that raises a real question about whether share price still reflects actual value or just how much cash a company is willing to spend defending its stock. The Tim Cook debate gets heated, the ZEBRA options strategy gets a clean walkthrough, and there's a practical breakdown of how to size positions on a $200K account. The show also covers pin risk, gold's shaky safe-haven narrative, Scott's trades of the week, and a caller from Prague asking about busted SPACs trading at steep discounts to treasury.

#lossdog #tomsosnoff #oneluckydoglive #stockmarket #optionstrading #corporatebuybacks #pinrisk

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:10 Market open: NASDAQ & S&P selloff

3:26 Oil spike and bond market pressure

6:15 Corporate buybacks: Goldman's $1.44T forecast

9:54 Iron condors: what drives your market bias?

11:31 Zebra options strategy explained

25:31 News vs. noise: how to filter what matters

36:52 Caleb Williams: 30 TD prediction debate

38:21 Scott's trades of the week

51:18 Tim Cook: great CEO or overrated?

56:35 Caller: sizing a $200K options account

1:10:41 Gold: is the safe-haven playbook broken?

1:20:36 Pin risk: real hazard or just noise?

1:30:13 Final market recap

Corporate stock buybacks are on pace to hit record levels in 2026, with Goldman Sachs projecting $1.44 trillion — nearly double the value of new shares being issued. When companies become the dominant net buyers of their own equity, the traditional connection between price and underlying business value gets murky in ways most retail investors never think about. Gold's failure to rally on geopolitical risk news is adding fuel to a broader debate about whether the old flight-to-quality playbook still holds in a market driven by momentum and macro positioning. For options traders, pin risk — the scenario where a stock closes within cents of a short strike and assignment status stays unknown until Saturday morning — remains one of the most practical and underappreciated edge cases to understand before it catches you off guard.

ABOUT ONE LUCKY DOG LIVE! / LOSSDOG

One Lucky Dog LIVE! is your daily wake-up call for career and financial clarity—streaming live Monday through Thursday, 8 : 30-10am CT. Hosts Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista bring decades of trading, entrepreneurial and fintech experience to optimizing our professional and portfolio worth.

Lossdog is the platform they're building to fix it. It's AI-powered software that doesn't just guess what you should earn—it calculates your real market value and shows you exactly how to increase it. No more vague salary ranges. No more wondering if you're being underpaid. Just clarity, backed by data.

The show is the conversation. The platform is the tool. Together, they're designed to help you stop leaving money on the table and start building the career you actually deserve.

📺 Watch live: Mon-Thu 8 : 30-10am CT

📞 Call in: 989-LOSSDOG

📧 [email protected]

🐕 Follow @wearelossdog everywhere 👉 http://linktr.ee/wearelossdog

Everyone has a number. Lossdog helps you know your number, and grow your number.

👉 Join Lossdog at https://lossdog.com/

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Join Lossdog at https://lossdog.com and please subscribe to this channel.

Tom Sosnoff and Scott Sheridan open this Labor Day week edition live as the market gets unsettled — bonds getting hammered, September rate hike odds jumping from 35% to over 60% overnight, and NASDAQ barely holding everything else together. They get into whether AI infrastructure capex is a genuine paradigm shift or just the cycle's shiniest new obsession, break down earnings expected moves for Nvidia and Crowdstrike, and walk through Tom's contrarian trades of the week in Walmart, Microsoft, Intel, and soybeans. Then Liz Dierking — longtime tastylive co-host, long-time friend of Tom, Scott, and Tony Battista, and now part of the Liz and Jenny Show — stops by completely unannounced and lights up the room, sharing her Bitcoin and crypto ETF approach, SPX zero-DTE put ratio setups, and bond positioning thoughts alongside all three hosts. The show closes out with a deep session on probability of touch versus probability of expiring — including the origin story of how thinkorswim was the first platform to ever put that number on a screen — plus callers who mostly just want to say hi to Liz, and end-of-day S&P predictions.

#lossdog #tomsosnoff #oneluckydoglive #optionstrading #bitcoin #ratehike #federalreserve

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Show open

1:27 Live market open and prices

6:24 AI infrastructure spending: signal or noise?

11:04 Position sizing: what 1-3% net liq actually means

32:33 Nostradogus: college football picks

34:16 Tom's trades of the week

44:16 Earnings expected moves — did the options market miss?

49:41 September rate hike odds hit 60%

52:44 Liz Dierking stops by

1:02:07 Bitcoin at $80K — IBIT, ETHA, and crypto strategy

1:14:22 Probability of touch vs. probability of expiring

1:22:36 thinkorswim and the origin of probability of touch

1:25:34 Final market recap and end-of-day predictions

September carries one of the most unusual tensions in the financial calendar — historically the weakest month for equities, yet home to the strongest options expiration cycle of the year, with traders rolling from September to December futures contracts in the second week. The Fed watch tool ticking above 60% odds of a rate hike creates a classic price puzzle: if every market participant already sees that number, how much of it is already in the bond? Bitcoin's compression around $80K — well off its all-time highs north of $120K — signals a more institutionalized crypto landscape, where ETF wrappers like IBIT and ETHA are quietly becoming the smarter vehicle for options strategies than owning coins outright. And the debate over whether AI infrastructure spending is a transformational shift or just the cycle's current obsession echoes a long line of Wall Street paradigm shifts — from dot-era eyeball counts to EBITDA multiples to whatever comes next — a reminder that the metric everyone's screaming about today is rarely the one that actually lasts.

ABOUT ONE LUCKY DOG LIVE! / LOSSDOG

One Lucky Dog LIVE! is your daily wake-up call for career and financial clarity—streaming live Monday through Thursday, 8 : 30-10am CT. Hosts Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista bring decades of trading, entrepreneurial and fintech experience to optimizing our professional and portfolio worth.

Lossdog is the platform they're building to fix it. It's AI-powered software that doesn't just guess what you should earn—it calculates your real market value and shows you exactly how to increase it. No more vague salary ranges. No more wondering if you're being underpaid. Just clarity, backed by data.

The show is the conversation. The platform is the tool. Together, they're designed to help you stop le...

Join Lossdog at https://lossdog.com and please subscribe to this channel.

Tom Sosnoff and Scott Sheridan react to blowout earnings from Nvidia, CrowdStrike, and Salesforce — breaking down which moves actually cleared the expected range and how long post-earnings IVR stays elevated before it collapses. Marvell Technology reports after the close with the options market pricing a 10% implied move, and they get into whether that number is properly sized given the stock's five-year earnings history of swings from -20% to +32%. Then the debate heats up: Tom argues agentic AI will outperform human stock pickers by ingesting more data and cutting out emotion, while Scott — a committed efficient market theorist — says AI sharpens mechanics but can't beat the market at its own game. Jackson Hole opens tomorrow with Fed Chair Kevin Worsh giving the keynote on financial innovation and stablecoins, though with a chairman who's deliberately avoided forward guidance all year, they question whether there's anything worth trading on. Callers include a viewer who built a Bitcoin mainnet protocol after being inspired by Tom's tastytrade teachings, a trader asking about call spread premium targets, and a real-world covered call management walkthrough for anyone assigned stock below their cost basis.

#lossdog #tomsosnoff #oneluckydoglive #nvidiaearnings #optionstrading #aiinvesting #jacksonhole

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:22 Market open & earnings reaction

4:07 Nvidia post-earnings breakdown

11:25 Rising rates vs. AI sector growth

12:31 Stock vs. options after a crash

15:29 Post-earnings IVR timing window

18:02 Caller: Bitcoin mainnet protocol

27:56 Which options strategy fits best?

33:41 Clarity Act 2026 prediction

33:52 Caller: credit spread sizing rules

43:43 Trade picks: MSFT, COST, AAPL

48:36 Marvell earnings: 10% implied move

1:02:43 Will AI replace stock pickers?

1:15:12 Jackson Hole + Fed Chair keynote

1:22:27 Covered call below cost basis

Earnings season in 2026 is running hot, with Nvidia, CrowdStrike, and Salesforce all posting blowout numbers that have traders scrutinizing whether options markets priced implied moves correctly — and what the IVR window actually looks like after the fact. Jackson Hole arrives at an interesting moment: new Fed Chair Kevin Worsh has made deliberate silence part of his playbook, and with his keynote covering financial innovation and stablecoins rather than rate signals, the symposium may move markets without saying much of substance. Meanwhile, the debate about AI and stock picking is no longer hypothetical — hedge funds reported averaging 7% returns in the first half of 2026 with a portion credited to AI-driven processes, setting up a real argument about whether systematic, emotionless agentic tools are starting to outperform discretionary human traders. For retail options traders, a post-earnings environment with collapsing IVR is one of the more technically rich moments in the market cycle, and knowing how to manage a covered call when you're already underwater from a short put assignment is exactly the kind of practical edge that separates people who build accounts from people who spin their wheels.

ABOUT ONE LUCKY DOG LIVE! / LOSSDOG

One Lucky Dog LIVE! is your daily wake-up call for career and financial clarity—streaming live Monday through Thursday, 8 : 30-10am CT. Hosts Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista bring decades of trading, entrepreneurial and fintech experience to optimizing our professional and portfolio worth.

Lossdog is the platform they're building to fix it. It's AI-powered software that doesn't just guess what you should earn—it calculates your real market value and shows you exactly how t...

Join Lossdog at https://lossdog.com and please subscribe to this channel.

Tom Sosnoff and Scott Sheridan open with Nvidia's earnings tonight — where a single report can move a quarter trillion in market cap — and break down why trading QQQ premium may be the smarter play than touching Nvidia directly. They get into whether 2026's $251 billion IPO haul is a genuine boom or mostly a SpaceX story, what the day's PCE inflation print signals ahead of any Fed move, and what CrowdStrike's 175x multiple means heading into tonight's print. Tony Battista joins for the back half as the dog pound weighs in on going full-time as a trader after two years of outperforming a salary, and the crew settles the spread debate for good: on as a unit, off as a unit, no exceptions.

#lossdog #tomsosnoff #oneluckydoglive #nvidia #ipomarket #optionstrading #stockmarket

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro & market open

1:52 Opening prices across all markets

4:01 Nvidia earnings preview & expected move

6:10 Playing QQQ instead of Nvidia tonight

13:26 When trading beats your day job salary

17:01 Innovators vs. facilitators debate

31:11 Short puts vs. bull put spreads

33:08 NFL MVP 2026 prediction (Nostradogus)

35:08 Lossdog agentic trades of the week

50:51 Is 2026 a real IPO boom or just hype?

54:51 SpaceX: a third of all US IPO proceeds

1:05:52 CrowdStrike earnings preview

1:10:14 PCE inflation print and Fed rate risk

1:21:56 Why traders never leg out of a spread

Nvidia's earnings tonight arrive as AI infrastructure companies have effectively become macro events — quarterly guidance now resets sector volatility assumptions and risk appetite across the entire tape. The 2026 IPO market's $251 billion haul is five times 2025's full-year total, but with SpaceX alone accounting for roughly a third of all proceeds, the headline number is doing a lot of work to hide a more complicated picture. PCE inflation holding near 3.7% year-over-year keeps the Fed's path genuinely uncertain, making today's dual catalyst — an inflation print and a mega-cap earnings event on the same day — more consequential than a typical Wednesday.

ABOUT ONE LUCKY DOG LIVE! / LOSSDOG

One Lucky Dog LIVE! is your daily wake-up call for career and financial clarity—streaming live Monday through Thursday, 8 : 30-10am CT. Hosts Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista bring decades of trading, entrepreneurial and fintech experience to optimizing our professional and portfolio worth.

Lossdog is the platform they're building to fix it. It's AI-powered software that doesn't just guess what you should earn—it calculates your real market value and shows you exactly how to increase it. No more vague salary ranges. No more wondering if you're being underpaid. Just clarity, backed by data.

The show is the conversation. The platform is the tool. Together, they're designed to help you stop leaving money on the table and start building the career you actually deserve.

📺 Watch live: Mon-Thu 8 : 30-10am CT

📞 Call in: 989-LOSSDOG

📧 [email protected]

🐕 Follow @wearelossdog everywhere 👉 http://linktr.ee/wearelossdog

Everyone has a number. Lossdog helps you know your number, and grow your number.

👉 Join Lossdog at https://lossdog.com/

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Join Lossdog at https://lossdog.com and please subscribe to this channel.

Gold futures just hit $4,700 an ounce — up nearly 40% over the past year — and Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan, and Tony Battista aren't buying the Treasury buyback explanation. They get into whether the real driver is something a bond program was never built to fix, how oil pulled back even with the Strait of Hormuz running at 10% of normal traffic, and what the new 50% US-Canada tariffs actually mean for traders on both sides. The desk breaks down what a 59% probability model really signals, when going outright futures beats options, and why the S&P put/call skew collapse from two weeks ago played out almost exactly as predicted. Callers include a Dave Ramsey mortgage debate that splits the room and an IRA trader trying to find his best premium-selling path with no margin relief.

#lossdog #tomsosnoff #oneluckydoglive #gold #bitcoin #optionstrading #stockmarket

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:05 Market open: S&P, NASDAQ, Gold, Oil

3:16 Gold at $4,700 — Is the Treasury buyback enough?

4:59 Oil pulls back despite Hormuz disruption

5:59 US-Canada 50% tariffs: short-term tactic or structural shift?

9:17 When does a 59% probability model earn your conviction?

12:48 Futures vs. options — when to go outright

28:36 Pete Crow-Armstrong NL MVP odds breakdown

34:01 Trades of the week: GLD and ZB strangles

44:04 Host handoff — Tom joins the desk

47:53 Caller: Pay off your mortgage early or invest the difference?

1:05:06 Crude oil vs. gold: trade price, not headlines

1:22:48 S&P skew collapse — what the market was really saying

1:28:11 Bitcoin poll: $69K or $89K next?

Gold at $4,700 sits at the intersection of two things happening at once: a Treasury buyback program credited for pushing bond prices higher, and a broader market asking whether that policy is powerful enough to explain why money keeps moving into hard assets at this pace. Bitcoin hovering near $80K with the community split almost evenly on what comes next mirrors the same underlying question — is this a crowd getting comfortable, or a crowd getting crowded? The US-Canada tariff standoff hitting 50% on autos, alcohol, and dairy, with Ottawa matching dollar-for-dollar, is a live test of whether tariffs are still a negotiating chip or the beginning of a structurally more expensive trade relationship. And the S&P put/call skew collapse from two weeks ago — which preceded a 2-5% selloff depending on which index you follow — is a reminder that market complacency leaves fingerprints in the options chain before it shows up in the price.

ABOUT ONE LUCKY DOG LIVE! / LOSSDOG

One Lucky Dog LIVE! is your daily wake-up call for career and financial clarity—streaming live Monday through Thursday, 8 : 30-10am CT. Hosts Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista bring decades of trading, entrepreneurial and fintech experience to optimizing our professional and portfolio worth.

Lossdog is the platform they're building to fix it. It's AI-powered software that doesn't just guess what you should earn—it calculates your real market value and shows you exactly how to increase it. No more vague salary ranges. No more wondering if you're being underpaid. Just clarity, backed by data.

The show is the conversation. The platform is the tool. Together, they're designed to help you stop leaving money on the table and start building the career you actually deserve.

📺 Watch live: Mon-Thu 8 : 30-10am CT

📞 Call in: 989-LOSSDOG

📧 [email protected]

🐕 Follow @wearelossdog everywhere 👉 http://linktr.ee/wearelossdog

Everyone has a number. Lossdog helps you know your number, and grow your...

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Join Lossdog at https://lossdog.com and please subscribe to this channel.

This Monday's show centers on Nvidia's Wednesday earnings — Tom Sosnoff and Tony Battista break down why the $11 expected move on a $210 stock feels dangerously cheap, and what a real market maker would actually price it at. Scott Sheridan joins midway to weigh in on Bitcoin's best week in two years (back near $80K from the low 60s), the Treasury's bond buybacks that the market completely shrugged off, and how 0DTE options now account for 60% of all S&P index volume. Tom also walks through his trades of the week — Intel Jade Lizard, IBIT strangle, and Walmart vs. Target — takes callers on covered call management, gold, and the Bitcoin 60K vs. 90K debate, and teases a Lossdog stablecoin coming soon.

#lossdog #tomsosnoff #oneluckydoglive #bitcoin #optionstrading #nvdaearnings #0dte

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:17 Market open: S&P, NASDAQ, Bitcoin, gold

7:12 Trade before confirmation — not after

9:38 AMD covered call — stuck at $110

13:08 NVDA earnings: the $11 move is too small

30:57 Tom's Trades of the Week

38:15 Caller: walk away after hitting targets?

42:25 Scott Sheridan joins the show

47:58 $4B bond buybacks — yields win anyway

51:51 Fed rate hike debate

57:51 Real estate: commercial vs. residential

1:00:02 Nvidia earnings deep dive with Scott

1:04:47 Capitalism vs. democracy — who wins?

1:13:01 Bitcoin's best week in 2 years

1:21:42 0DTE options — 60% of S&P volume

Nvidia reports Wednesday as the largest company on earth by market cap, and the options market's $11 implied move looks thin against a stock that can swing $20 in a single session — especially with $236 billion already stripped from its cap this past week and analyst price targets scattered anywhere from $300 to $400. In the bond market, 10-year yields are sitting near 4.7% and the 30-year is pushing 5.25%, and the Treasury's move from $2 billion to $4 billion in weekly buybacks barely registered against a $30 trillion market — because markets price the truth, not the press release. Bitcoin's run back toward $80K is its strongest momentum in two years, landing as the most crypto-friendly administration in recent history edges closer to stablecoin and digital asset legislation that could permanently reshape how money moves. And zero-day options — a concept first proposed to the CBOE by Tom Sosnoff and the thinkorswim team back in 2005 — now account for 60% of all S&P index options flow, quietly rewriting who has edge in the market and proving that retail isn't the volatility bomb everyone feared.

ABOUT ONE LUCKY DOG LIVE! / LOSSDOG

One Lucky Dog LIVE! is your daily wake-up call for career and financial clarity—streaming live Monday through Thursday, 8 : 30-10am CT. Hosts Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista bring decades of trading, entrepreneurial and fintech experience to optimizing our professional and portfolio worth.

Lossdog is the platform they're building to fix it. It's AI-powered software that doesn't just guess what you should earn—it calculates your real market value and shows you exactly how to increase it. No more vague salary ranges. No more wondering if you're being underpaid. Just clarity, backed by data.

The show is the conversation. The platform is the tool. Together, they're designed to help you stop leaving money on the table and start building the career you actually deserve.

📺 Watch live: Mon-Thu 8 : 30-10am CT

📞 Call in: 989-LOSSDOG

📧 [email protected]

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Buying options into earnings before IV crush hits? Tom Sosnoff and Tony Battista say that's almost always a losing setup — and they've got 25 years of data behind it. This episode covers gold's rally to $4,500 (flight to quality vs. cyclical trade), why win rate matters more than loss size for retail traders, and how tariff refunds quietly inflated this earnings cycle in ways Wall Street had already priced in. The Dog Pound gets straight answers on zero-DTE strategy when VIX 1-day touches 5, stop-loss myths, how to size undefined-risk trades in a $25K account, and the real case for Bitcoin as a long-term tech asset class. No calls today — phone lines down — but the chat more than covered it.

#lossdog #tomsosnoff #oneluckydoglive #optionstrading #ivcrush #goldprice #investing

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:21 Hosts intro — Tom Sosnoff and Tony Battista; Scott out

2:58 Market open — gold, silver, bonds, VIX

6:02 Bond market's big move — $1K per point

9:08 Is win rate actually a manageable statistic?

13:32 Dog Pound Q&A — crypto wallets, stop losses, MU

18:47 Zero DTE SPX when VIX 1-day hits 5 — buy or sell?

28:51 Nostradogus — will Apple trade above 320 by Friday?

44:51 Lossdog Trades of the Week results

55:57 Gold at $4,500 — flight to quality or just cyclical?

1:06:53 Tariff refunds inflated corporate earnings

1:13:46 Buying options into earnings — does IV crush kill it?

1:22:25 Bitcoin as a long-term tech-based asset class

Gold at $4,500 is raising the same question it always does at extreme levels — is this a durable flight to quality or just momentum chasing? With VIX sitting near multi-year lows and earnings season quietly padded by court-ordered tariff refunds, the conditions for a volatility reset are building in the background. The IV crush problem is structural: options markets price in expected moves before earnings drop, so buyers are fighting a 30-year statistical edge that strongly favors sellers — stocks beat estimates at a high rate this cycle, and still went down roughly half the time because the good news was already priced in. Bitcoin's "currency vs. asset class" debate has largely been settled, but the real question now is whether it belongs in a diversified portfolio the same way commodities do — and that answer matters more as regulation tightens and retail investors chase the next big move.

ABOUT ONE LUCKY DOG LIVE! / LOSSDOG

One Lucky Dog LIVE! is your daily wake-up call for career and financial clarity—streaming live Monday through Thursday, 8 : 30-10am CT. Hosts Tom Sosnoff, Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista bring decades of trading, entrepreneurial and fintech experience to optimizing our professional and portfolio worth.

Lossdog is the platform they're building to fix it. It's AI-powered software that doesn't just guess what you should earn—it calculates your real market value and shows you exactly how to increase it. No more vague salary ranges. No more wondering if you're being underpaid. Just clarity, backed by data.

The show is the conversation. The platform is the tool. Together, they're designed to help you stop leaving money on the table and start building the career you actually deserve.

📺 Watch live: Mon-Thu 8 : 30-10am CT

📞 Call in: 989-LOSSDOG

📧 [email protected]

🐕 Follow @wearelossdog everywhere 👉 http://linktr.ee/wearelossdog

Everyone has a number. Lossdog helps you know your number, and grow your number.

👉 Join Lossdog at https://lossdog.com/

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.