One Model at A Time

When the Powerball jackpot topped two billion dollars, a ticket looked like a bargain — but the real math said otherwise. Learn expected value: judging a bet by its average payoff over many tries, not by how often you win. Plus the bet Jeff Bezos said to take every time, even losing nine times out of ten.

In a room of just 23 people, the odds of two sharing a birthday are better than fifty-fifty — and it has nothing to do with your own birthday. Discover why choices multiply instead of adding, when order matters and when it doesn't, and what the real odds of winning Lotto 6/49 look like.

Warren Buffett made most of his fortune after his 65th birthday — the secret is compounding, earning returns on your returns until growth feeds on itself. Learn the rule of 72, see it in the penny that doubles for 30 days, and discover where compounding is quietly working against you: your credit card bill.

When Joseph Priestley asked Benjamin Franklin for advice on a job offer, Franklin sent him a method instead of an answer: prudential algebra — write down the reasons on both sides, weigh them, and let the balance show you. Plus the question Jeff Bezos asked himself before leaving Wall Street to start Amazon.

One Model at a Time is a Thousand Bagger show. Each episode takes one mental model and explains it simply, with one real-world example, in about three minutes.

Instead of asking how to succeed, ask what would guarantee failure — and avoid it. This episode is about inversion, the tool Charlie Munger reached for more than almost any other, and how Amazon writes the press release before it builds the product.

One Model at a Time is a Thousand Bagger show. Each episode takes one mental model and explains it simply, with one real-world example, in about three minutes.

Netflix ran its travel and expense policy on five words: "Act in Netflix's best interest." This episode is about a seamless web of deserved trust — Charlie Munger's highest form of civilization — and how Warren Buffett agreed a one point five billion dollar deal with Walmart in a single meeting because the trust had been earned.

One Model at a Time is a Thousand Bagger show. Each episode takes one mental model and explains it simply, with one real-world example, in about three minutes.

Richard Feynman told Caltech's graduates in nineteen seventy-four: "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool." This episode shows how to be your own toughest critic — and how Feynman used a glass of ice water to cut through a room full of NASA experts after the Challenger disaster.

One Model at a Time is a Thousand Bagger show. Each episode takes one mental model and explains it simply, with one real-world example, in about three minutes.

"If men were angels, no government would be necessary." Today's model is checks and balances: don't depend on good people — build systems where power and mistakes get checked. From Madison's Constitution to the cake-cutting trick, plus what the man who cleaned up after Enron said about the next mess he was called in to fix.

One Model at a Time is a Thousand Bagger show. Each episode explains one mental model in about three minutes.

A Yale team found that people who are good with numbers can solve a math problem — until the right answer goes against their politics. Today's model is Charlie Munger's warning to avoid ideology: once an idea becomes part of who you are, evidence against it feels like an attack on you. Plus, one of the world's most powerful economists admitting his worldview had a flaw.

One Model at a Time is a Thousand Bagger show. Each episode explains one mental model in about three minutes.

Many gym members ended up paying more than $17 per visit — when a $10 pay-as-you-go option was available. Today's model is Charlie Munger's two-track analysis: first check the facts, then check the feelings driving the decision. Plus, a 2021 stock market craze where the numbers said one thing and the crowd said something else.

One Model at a Time is a Thousand Bagger show. Each episode explains one mental model in about three minutes.