Three news stories summarized & contextualized by analytic journalist Colin Wright.

Venezuela claims large support for annexing oil-rich Guyana territory

Summary: The Venezuelan government claims that the results of a referendum, which were announced yesterday, show that Venezuelan citizens overwhelmingly support the annexation of about two-thirds of neighboring Guyana, and also support ignoring warnings from the International Court of Justice that they should not make any moves to take that land by force.

Context: Land ownership in this part of South America has been historically muddled by colonization, but Guyana has governed the area Venezuela is now claiming, a region called Essequibo, since 1899, and that change in posture on the part of Venezuela is probably the result of vast oil reserves that were discovered just off the coast in its territorial waters in 2015, paired with the fact that this sort of annexation push could help unpopular Venezuelan President Maduro rally nationalist support following a period of economic catastrophe overseen by his government; the country has recently benefitted from an easing of oil export sanctions by the US, but those sanctions will only remain eased if free and fair elections are allowed, and Maduro would almost certainly lose a real-deal election, so this might be an effort to stir support, win an open election, and thus keep sanctions lifted while also remaining in power—though there’s also a chance it’s also a precursor to some kind of invasion and land-grab, which is a big concern for international observers at the moment, hence the International Court of Justice’s warning.

—Al Jazeera

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US warship responds to Houthi-claimed attacks on commercial ships in Red Sea

Summary: The USS Carney, a US naval destroyer, has intervened on behalf of three commercial ships that came under attack by drones and missiles in the Red Sea on Sunday; the attacks were claimed by Houthis rebels operating out of Yemen who said the attacks were a response to Israel’s invasion of the Gaza Strip.

Context: This represents an uptick in attacks on commercial vessels in this narrow channel that connects the Arabian Peninsula and African coast, and which is a major shipping lane; the US claims these rebels, who are supported by Iran’s government, would have had Iran’s backing for these attacks, which raises concerns that the conflict in Israel could expand to encompass more of the region, though while the Houthis say they struck two Israeli commercial vessels, Israel’s military has denied any connection to the attacked ships, so it’s an open question as to whether these attacks are meant to actually strike Israeli interests, or are possibly meant to simply gum-up trade through this southern Red Sea passage for other reasons.

—Axios

Roche to buy Carmot Therapeutics for up to $3.1 billion as obesity drug market booms

Summary: Swiss pharma-giant Roche has announced that it will acquire Carmot Therapeutics—which has developed a range of products, including an anti-obesity drug similar to those being sold by other major drug companies—for around $3 billion.

Context: This will give Roche exclusive rights over a portfolio of GLP-1-based treatments, which is what existing anti-obesity drugs like Ozempic and Mounjaro are based on, though Carmot has some treatments in the works that would offer similar benefits, but in pill form rather than as injections, which is how drugs of this type that are currently available are administered; anti-obesity drugs have already grown to become a $6 billion market, and estimates from Goldman Sachs suggest it could grow to something like $100 billion by 2030.

—Financial Times

US weapons manufacturers have been solidly outperforming the overall S&P 500 stock index since Hamas’ sneak-attack on Israel, and Israel’s subsequent invasion of the Gaza Strip, amplifying an existing surge in investment in such companies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

—The Wall Street Journal

17%

Percent of its workforce audio streaming service Spotify has announced it will lay off soon as part of a larger push toward profitability following a long period of expensive expansion and experimentation.

That adds up to around 1,500 employees of a total tally of more than 8,000, about half of whom were hired over the past three years during that period of rapid growth.

—The Wall Street Journal

Trust Click

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