Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Soft Jobs Data Fuels Markets Rally Ahead of Quarterly Earnings Season

US markets ended the week of July 3 with gains after a softer-than-expected US jobs print and cooler rate-hike expectations, led by cyclical and communication services while defensives underperformed.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed last week as investors priced in a slower Fed rate-hiking path after US jobs data, with stocks set for their best weekly performance since May.

Markets are recalibrating rate expectations after Fed funds futures indicated roughly even odds of a rate hike by September, though June's weaker-than-expected jobs report tempered immediate fears.

S&P 500 companies are collectively expected to report Q2 earnings growth of over 24%, with earnings season kicking off this week as a key catalyst for equities.

Indian equities ended the week of 3 July on a constructive note, with the Nifty 50 and Sensex both closing higher and benchmarks supported by softer crude, improved global cues, and a rebound in IT.

A key tailwind was the decline in crude oil prices, which eased inflation and import bill concerns for India. The other major support came from improving global risk appetite, expectations of a more accommodative US rate path, and a better tone around the India-Japan Summit.

The upcoming quarterly results season will be closely watched for signs of demand recovery, margin resilience, and management commentary on second-half growth.

Markets are likely to react more to guidance and earnings quality than to headline numbers.

In the near term, the bias remains positive as long as the Nifty holds above the 24,000 zone, with 24,400–24,600 likely to act as resistance if momentum continues.

Indian markets are set to open on muted note amid cautious global cues.