Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Wall Street falls for third straight day as tech selloff deepens

U.S. stocks extended losses for a third consecutive session, led lower by a sharp pullback in mega-cap technology and semiconductor names.

The Nasdaq dropped 1.33%, the S&P 500 fell 0.69%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.22%, pulling all three benchmarks further from last week's record highs. Global bond rout pushes long-term yields to multidecade highs. Rising bond yields sapped risk appetite from the AI trade.

Home Depot posted higher sales and reaffirmed its outlook even as consumers stuck to smaller maintenance projects.

Meta, faces a landmark child-safety trial in California — a legal overhang even as its underlying growth metrics remain strong.

New 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods are set to take effect soon absent a last-minute deal between Trump and Canadian PM Carney.

Government bond yields surged worldwide, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield touching an intraday high near 5.33%–5.34% — its highest since 2007. Widening fiscal deficits, inflation concerns, and heavy capex from debt-financed AI infrastructure buildouts are factors competing with sovereign borrowers for capital and reshaping equity valuations. Foreign holders, including those in the UK, China, and Japan, have been paring their Treasury holdings, compounding the sell-off.

Crude climbs as Middle East tensions escalate. Oil extended its advance after the 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire expired without a new agreement and Iran shifted to what it called a "fully offensive" military posture, with fresh attacks reported in the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold eased below $4,400 as higher U.S. yields and safe-haven dollar demand outweighed support from Middle East risk aversion.

The rupee weakened by 8 paise to close at 95.68 per dollar. This was primarily driven by higher crude prices amid escalating tensions in West Asia and weakness in domestic equities.

India's crude oil import bill rose 41% YoY to $13.7 billion in July, primarily due to higher crude prices amid the ongoing crisis in West Asia. Crude import volumes also increased 13% YoY to 21.4 million tonnes, while the Indian basket averaged $82.04 a barrel amid supply disruptions.

Nifty fell for the sixth straight session yesterday, shedding 132 points (−0.54%) to close at 24,154, its lowest level since 28 July 2026.

Technically, Nifty closed below an important cluster support around 24,200. The current fall of over 600 points from the recent peak has retraced more than 50% of the previous upward rally from 23,606 to 24,774 recorded between 24 July and 3 August 2026. Below 24200, the next key support is seen near 24,050, aligning with a retracement of the past rally and a prior gap zone. Resistance has shifted lower to the 24,300–24,350 band, with a stronger supply zone around 24,600.

Indian equities are set for a muted start today, weighed down by subdued global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

S&P 500 closes at record high as inflation cools

The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to a record intraday and closing high of 7798; the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8%. The rally followed July PPI report, which showed wholesale inflation cooling to 4.7% YoY — below expectations — cutting odds of a September Fed rate hike to 35% from 40% and pulling the 10-year Treasury yield down 4bps to 4.639%.

Brent oil fell over 2% to about $87, snapping a multi-day rally. A surprise 17.4 million-barrel U.S. inventory build, combined with 2026 demand-growth downgrades from OPEC and the IEA, outweighed supply risk from the Strait of Hormuz, prices extended losses even after the UAE reported Iran struck two oil vessels there, signaling demand concerns are currently dominating supply fears.

SanDisk jumped nearly 14% on bullish fiscal 2028–2030 revenue guidance. In space stocks, fell 3.5% and Intuitive Machines slid about 1.6% on a revenue miss and wider-than-expected loss.

Spot gold fell over 1% to near $4,354/oz, pulling back from a fresh two-month intraday high near $4,450. The DXY dollar index slipped below 100.00 as the cooler PPI print and higher jobless claims cut expectations for further Fed tightening, even as Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack reiterated her call for a rate hike.

The Indian rupee depreciated steadily during yesterday's session amid strong dollar demand from importers. Sentiment was also weighed down by the previous day’s inflation reading, resulting in the rupee underperforming its Asian peers. The domestic currency closed 11 paise lower at 95.45 against the US dollar.

Nifty continued to trade in a choppy range but managed to close at 24,395. This marks the second consecutive session in which the index has closed above these key moving averages and remains an encouraging sign for the bulls.

The immediate support is placed at 24,265, followed by the psychologically important level of 24,000. On the upside, 24,630 and 24,750 remain the key resistance zones to watch. Sustained trading above 24,265 could keep the short-term bias positive, while a decisive close below 24200 would weaken the setup.

Indian equities are set for a mildly negative note on lack of strong global cues.

Tame US CPI eases rate-hike fears, lifts risk appetite

US headline CPI rose 3.4% YoY in July, matching consensus, cooling from June's 3.5%. Core CPI held at 2.5% YoY, also in line with forecasts. The soft print led markets to pare back bets on an aggressive Fed move at the September meeting, with gold rallying above $4,400 — a two-month high — on rising odds that the Fed holds rates steady. The dollar firmed into the release.

The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 rose 0.54% and 0.26%, respectively, recovering from earlier losses on strong results from AI infrastructure and cloud names.

Super Micro Computer surged over 19%, while Dell, Teradyne, Seagate, and Arista Networks each gained more than 6%, extending the AI-hardware rally. Bloom Energy rose 13% after Nebius picked its fuel cells for a 300 MW AI data center, with Q2 revenue up 165% YoY to $1.07 billion.

India's CPI rose 4.45% YoY in July (vs. 4.38% in June), close to the 4.4% estimate. The FY27E inflation forecast is retained at 4.9% YoY, with a pickup to 5.0–5.8% expected in H2FY27E on adverse base effects, El Niño risk, and supply-chain pressures. With inflation contained, the RBI is expected to stay on hold through CY26E, with a possible 25 bps hike in Q1CY27E — the Fed's path remains the key swing factor.

Brent Crude oil settled near $88/bbl as markets stayed sceptical of a quick resolution to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with US-Iran tensions keeping risk premiums elevated.

The rupee snapped a two-day losing streak yesterday, appreciating 10 paise to close at 95.33 as cooling crude prices offered relief after the recent rally. Likely central bank interventions and dollar inflows into debt and primary markets also supported the currency.

Nifty managed to reclaim intraday losses and close above these key moving averages, which is an encouraging sign for the bulls. Even after falling over 500 points from its recent peak of 24,774, Nifty remains above its key near-term averages, keeping the broader undertone bullish.

A low of 24,265 now will act as immediate support, followed by the psychologically important level of 24,000. On the upside, 24,630 and 24,750 are the key resistance zones to watch.

Indian equities are set for a mildly negative note on yesterday's CAS adjustments and mixed global cues.

Wall Street edges lower ahead of critical inflation data

U.S. benchmarks closed lower for a second straight session Tuesday as investors turned cautious ahead of the July CPI report. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.6% on weakness in large-cap tech, and the Dow lost 0.3%.

Markets awaited the inflation print, expected to show 0.1% m/m headline growth and a 3.4% annual pace.

Alphabet shares fell 3.8%, their fourth decline in five sessions, as investors reacted to the company's reshuffling of its internal AI units.

Intel priced a public offering of 210.5 million shares at $95 apiece, upsizing the deal from $15 billion to $20 billion. The offering, set to today — one of the largest capital raises in the chip sector this year.

Oil extended its volatile run amid stalled talks over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent has surged to nearly $90.

Iran maintained the strait would stay closed until its demands are met, even as a senior Pakistani minister said Tuesday the U.S. and Iran were nearing "some sort of arrangement" — a rare note of optimism amid otherwise hardening rhetoric on both sides.

Energy stocks gained on the rally, while refining margins spiked, pointing to a tightening downstream market.

The Indian rupee weakened for the second consecutive session yesterday, depreciating by 14 paise to close near 95.44. The decline was driven by weakness across Asian currencies and rising crude oil prices. Heightened risk aversion amid geopolitical uncertainty continued to exert pressure on the domestic currency. However, the rupee’s decline remained relatively contained despite the surge in oil prices, supported by intervention from the central bank.

Fitch Ratings affirmed India’s sovereign rating at BBB-, the lowest investment-grade level, while retaining a stable outlook. The agency cited robust growth prospects and stable external financing conditions, but flagged elevated government debt, weak structural metrics and potential fiscal spending pressures amid rising youth unemployment.

The central government’s net direct tax collection rose 23% YoY to ₹8.11 trillion as of August 10, supported by strong growth in non-corporate tax and STT receipts. The collection represents nearly one-third of the FY27 target of ₹26.97 trillion, despite a slower rise in refunds.

The Nifty remained under pressure throughout the session yesterday due to a sharp rise in crude oil prices on geopolitical concerns.

Having declined more than 300 points from its recent peak of 24,774, the Nifty has moved closer to its 200-day DEMA support at 24,384.

A decisive close below this level could drag the index towards the next support at 24,000. On the upside, 24,630 and 24,750 are likely to act as key resistance levels.

Indian equities are set for a mildly positive note on conducive Asian cues.

Wall Street Slips as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Resurface

U.S. stocks pulled back from record highs Monday as renewed uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz reignited inflation fears ahead of this week's CPI report. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite all closed modestly lower, snapping a two-week rally that had carried the S&P to a record close near 7,758.

AI-related names came under pressure after reports that Nvidia is working with major private equity firms on a financing initiative to mobilise more than $500 billion in third-party capital for hyperscalers, frontier AI labs, and enterprises building out data centres and buying Nvidia hardware. Nvidia shares slipped about 3% on the news. By channelling institutional credit, insurance capital, and private funding into underwriting GPUs and data centres, the arrangement lets customers finance AI infrastructure without straining their own balance sheets.

WTI and Brent crude climbed to $82 and $88 a barrel, respectively, after President Trump demanded compensation from Iran, dimming hopes of a near-term reopening. No agreement has materialised, and positions in Washington and Tehran have hardened.

The rally has pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.71% and revived inflation concerns heading into Thursday's CPI print.

Adding to the policy picture, a surprise 23,000-job contraction in July nonfarm payrolls has led traders to sharply pare bets on a September rate hike, with markets now leaning toward the Fed holding steady.

Asian markets opened mixed today. Japanese markets are shut today for Mountain Day.

Indian E-way bill generation continued to signal sustained economic activity, rising 5.98% YoY to 139.79 million in July 2026 from 131.91 million a year earlier — the second-highest monthly level on record, just below March 2026's peak of 140.60 million. Sequentially, generation rose 2.21% from 136.77 million in June, even as growth moderated to 12.4% in Q1FY27 from 15.7% in Q4FY26.

The Nifty witnessed a volatile, range-bound session on Dalal Street, closing at 24,583, up 13 points in yesterday's session. It continues to oscillate between its 200-day SMA at 24,758 and 200-day EMA at 24,384. The primary trend remains bullish, with the index trading above its key near-term averages. A decisive break away from this range is likely to trigger a sharper directional move in the index.

Indian equities are set for a muted start today, weighed down by subdued global cues, as the ongoing Q1 earnings season continues to steer both stock-specific and broader market sentiment.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Markets snap winning streak, focus turns to jobs report and Hormuz standoff

Major U.S. indexes closed slightly lower Thursday, ending a multi-day winning streak as investors booked profits after recent record highs.

The Dow fell 0.9%, weighed down by leadership changes and weak earnings at individual names; the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% for a second straight session, and the Nasdaq eased 0.1%.

Investors weighed a heavy earnings slate — including Insulet's 20% plunge on cut guidance — against Middle East tensions and today's expected jobs report.

European stocks bucked the trend, with the STOXX 600 hitting fresh records on strong earnings and optimism over a possible US-Iran deal.

Tech sentiment cracked after memory-chip makers Western Digital and SanDisk issued forecasts that fell short of lofty AI-driven expectations. Western Digital slid more than 14% and SanDisk over 9% in premarket trading, dragging Nasdaq 100 futures lower and raising questions about whether momentum is cooling among former AI market leaders.

Attention now shifts to Friday's July nonfarm payrolls report, expected to show a modest 83,000 gain with unemployment holding at 4.2%. Market players will watch wage growth and labour-force participation for further signals on labour-market health.

Crudel Oil rallied sharply after Iran published a draft plan to bar U.S. and Israeli vessels from the Strait of Hormuz and impose steep fines on violators — reversing earlier-week optimism that had pushed Brent down toward $75 on hopes of an Iran-Oman deal to reopen the waterway.

Brent jumped to $83 and WTI to near $78, a 3–4% surge. A broader U.S.-Iran agreement, which the Trump administration had signalled could be reached by Thursday, now looks unlikely to close soon.

Indian government reaffirmed its commitment to tariff rationalisation. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Customs duties on most products are likely to be reduced to single-digit levels by the FY28 Budget, adding that rates have already been rationalised for all but 13 items.

The rupee was the laggard among Asian currencies, depreciating 10 paise to close at 95.22, pressured by a rebound in global commodity costs and persistent dollar demand from importers.

It was a muted session on Dalal Street yesterday, with the Nifty closing at 24,636, up 11 points. Nifty’s volatility has contracted over the past three trading sessions, with the index forming lower highs and higher lows on a daily basis.

The primary trend remains bullish as the index holds above all key moving averages. On the upside, 24,770 and 25,000 are likely to act as immediate resistance levels, while the 24,430–24,380 zone may provide support on declines.

Indian markets are set to open marginally lower today on the back of higher crude oil prices.

U.S. Stocks Hit Record Highs on Earnings Strength, Easing Oil Prices

The US markets closed at record highs Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 1.8% — its first record close since June — and the Nasdaq Composite up 2.6%, now nearly 9% higher since last Wednesday.

Strong corporate earnings, a 4% rally in technology stocks, and falling oil prices drove the advance, while easing expectations for aggressive Fed rate hikes added further support.

Earnings are the session's biggest driver of the rally. Microsoft shares surged 25% over three days on blowout Q4 FY26 results, with Azure revenue nearing a $100 billion annual run rate and Copilot surpassing 30 million paid seats.

Palantir Technologies jumped nearly 30% after beating quarterly expectations and raising full-year revenue guidance, while Caterpillar climbed more than 5% to lead the Dow on record revenue, an upgraded growth outlook, and strong equipment demand tied to the AI data-center buildout; the company also trimmed its full-year tariff-cost guidance to the lower end of its prior range.

McDonald's shares slipped after U.S. sales growth came in weaker than expected following an underwhelming value-deal push.

SpaceX drew attention as short interest spiked to elevated levels ahead of earnings, with Musk warning short sellers and the company flagging higher-than-expected AI infrastructure spending; separately, SpaceX reported a $4.9 billion loss last year, split between a $542 million operating loss in its launch business — which depends heavily on Defense Department and NASA contracts — and a $1.26 billion loss in its AI unit, formed via the February merger with xAI, partly offset by $1.66 billion in operating income from its connectivity business.

Oil prices fell sharply after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a U.S.–Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping could be reached within a day.

Brent crude oil dropped more than 5%, three-week low, below $80. The moves followed President Trump's weekend comments that he had called off a planned strike on Iran to allow room for negotiations.

The de-escalation also pulled the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.62%, as markets lowered the odds of a September Fed rate cut hike.

In currency markets, the dollar weakened broadly, with EUR/USD approaching $1.15, while the yen traded near 157 per dollar.

The Indian rupee depreciated 4 paise to close at 95.38, moving in line with its Asian peers as and a firmer US dollar weighed on the currency. Participants awaited the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy outcome for further direction today.

Nifty saw a sharp 150-point spike in the closing auction session (CAS), aided by more than 1% moves in more than ten Nifty stocks.

Nifty remains in an overall uptrend, trading above all key moving averages. Immediate resistance is placed near 24,770, while support is seen at 24,375, aligned with the 200-day EMA.

Our Markets are poised to open higher today on the back of falling crude prices and buoyant US market cues.

Dow sets new closing record amid geopolitical de-escalation

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 700 points to close at a record 53,178— its 22nd record close this year. The S&P 500 gained 1.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.1%, as easing U.S.-Iran tensions and stronger-than-expected July manufacturing data lifted sentiment.

Amazon topped a $3 trillion market valuation for the first time as growth stocks rebounded broadly. The "Magnificent Seven" added a combined $1.77 trillion in market capitalisation over three trading days, aided by falling Treasury yields.

Brent crude fell to settle near $84 a barrel, after President Trump signalled he would postpone further military action against Iran to pursue negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. The retreat in energy prices eased Wall Street's inflation concerns.

Separately, Trump criticized Exxon and Chevron for "making too much money" amid high gasoline prices, calling on the companies to pass more savings to consumers — as low-income households continue spending over 10% of monthly income on fuel despite falling crude prices.

The U.S. Treasury and the Bank of Japan confirmed coordinated yen-buying intervention — an unusual step that included the U.S. selling euros to fund the purchases. USD/JPY strengthened to around 157, up from 40-year lows near 164, with officials signalling readiness for further action.

The Indian rupee strengthened in line with most Asian currencies, rising 4 paise to close at 95.35, supported by a decline in crude oil prices after U.S. President Donald Trump said fresh U.S.-Iran talks are set to begin on Monday. The domestic currency also benefited from sustained foreign inflows into both equity and debt markets. In addition, expectations that the Reserve Bank of India may reduce its net short forward position provided further support to the rupee.

Nifty extended its winning streak for a fourth consecutive session.

During the session, the index crossed key resistance levels of 24,530 and 24,601, confirming the continuation of the bullish trend.

Foreign investors are gradually paring back their short positions in derivatives while adding to their cash market holdings.

Nifty is poised to test the next target of 24,776, derived from its 200-day average. Immediate support has now moved higher to the 24,400–24,500 zone.

Nifty experienced a massive 200-point surge during the closing auction session (CAS), driven by around 1% or more movement across as many as 12 Nifty stocks, and that is likely to correct after opening today.

Markets to Cheer Middle East De-escalation

Global investors last week digested a hawkish Federal Reserve decision, escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, and a critical wave of Q2 earnings from Big Tech hyperscalers.

Concerns about the durability of large AI bets weighed on AI stocks due to high capital spending, financing needs, and growing competition. However, sentiment reversed in the latter half of the week after Microsoft’s Azure growth beat expectations and strong guidance, sparking a broad rebound in tech shares, though volatility persisted through the week’s end.

Trump said Iran sought a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end its nuclear threat, prompting him to cancel a planned strike ahead of Monday talks. Brent crude sank over 6% to $82.41 on the news, with broader risk sentiment lifted by hopes of a resolution.

Japan intervened in FX markets (yen-buying, dollar-selling) to halt the currency's slide to multi-decade lows, while the BOJ held rates but turned hawkish on inflation risks. This lifted short-dated JGB yields on rate-hike bets, and the yen later jumped on confirmed joint U.S.-Japan intervention, dragging exporter-led Japanese equities lower.

The Kospi fell as much as 5.5% as chipmakers sold off after Friday's record run and investors unwound leveraged bets. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each dropped about 9%.

The rupee and bonds this week will track the RBI's policy decision, with rates seen on hold and focus on inflation guidance amid Iran-driven energy risks. Bloomberg's deferral of India's bond-index inclusion — widely expected to go through — hurt sentiment and drove a third straight weekly yield rise

The Indian equity markets experienced a decisive bullish push during the week, closing above the psychologically important 24,000 mark, rebounding strongly from the previous week's consolidation. Encouraging management commentaries across large-cap IT, auto OEMs, and industrial manufacturing boosted investor sentiment.

Easing crude oil prices are providing a welcome cushion for India's trade balance and inflation outlook, while healthy progress of the southwest monsoon has further bolstered investor confidence.

July auto sales were broadly strong across categories. In passenger vehicles, Hyundai posted a record 75,360 units (domestic plus exports), Tata Motors' domestic PV sales rose 58% YoY to 62,611 units, Mahindra & Mahindra's total auto sales grew 26% to 1,03,860 vehicles including exports, and MG Motor India hit an all-time high of 8,158 wholesale units. Maruti Suzuki India Limited sold a total of 241,421 units. Domestic sales reached an all-time high of 200,123 units

Two-wheelers also gained: Hero MotoCorp's domestic dispatches rose 21.6% to 5,01,403 units, while Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India grew about 2% to 4,76,436 units.

The Royal Enfield maker posted monthly sales of 1,18,232 motorcycles in July 2026. The company witnessed 34% growth over the same period last year, against 88,045 motorcycles sold.

Indian indices are breaking out from near‑term resistance levels after several months of consolidation. Nifty index has closed above its 200 DEMA and swing-high resistance, reinforcing the near-term positive bias. Next resistance is seen at 24,530 (07 July swing high), followed by 24,778 (200-day SMA).

Midcap and Smallcap indices are in continuation of an uptrend.

On the downside, 23800 is the crucial support which can be utilised as a stop-loss in long positions.

Indian markets are set to open on a cheerful note on encouraging global cues.

Tech Stocks Roar Back on Microsoft's Historic Gain

U.S. stocks rebounded sharply, led by a rally in technology. The Nasdaq Composite led with a 2.8% gain, while the S&P 500 rose 1.7% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.2%.

Microsoft shares surged 16%, adding a record $450 billion in market capitalisation — the largest single-day gain in Wall Street history. The rally followed blowout earnings, with profit up 31%, easing investor concerns that AI infrastructure spending was outpacing cash generation. The optimism spread to other AI-cloud names: Nebius jumped 27%, CoreWeave 24%, and Oracle 7%, in a broad risk-on move.

Amazon also cheered investors after hours, reinforcing the narrative that AI infrastructure spending is starting to pay off. Meta Platforms was the exception, falling roughly 8% and extending its losing streak to 11 consecutive sessions, on soft revenue guidance and lingering doubts about the payback timeline on its capital expenditure.

U.S. GDP growth slowed more than expected in the second quarter, with inflation-adjusted output expanding at an annualised 1.5% as elevated oil and gasoline costs weighed on households and businesses. Consumer spending held up, rising 3.2%, and business investment stayed strong on continued AI-related spending. Weekly jobless claims rose to 197,000, up 9,000 from the prior week, adding to signs of a cooling labour market.

The Bank of England held its Bank Rate at 3.75% at its July meeting. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to hold, with the remaining three members favouring a 25-basis-point hike to 4%.

Asian markets rallied today on easing fears that the AI-linked selloff had further to run: South Korea's Kospi surged 14%, and Japan's Nikkei rose 4%. Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures pointed higher as well.

The yen spiked nearly 2.4% on suspected government intervention, pulling USD/JPY back from 40-year lows near 160 before it gave back some gains, trading around 160.5. The dollar weakened broadly — also pressured by trader scepticism over Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's recent inflation comments — pushing EUR/USD to a one-month high near $1.15 and USD/CAD to a six-week low near 1.40.

Nifty extended gains in yesterday's session by closing 66 points higher at 24,317.

From last Friday’s low of 23,606, the index has rallied 737 points and remains firmly above near-term averages, underscoring a strong uptrend. A sustained move above 24,368 could open the path toward the next resistance at 24,530, while the 24,040–24,140 band is expected to act as support on declines.

Indian markets are set to open on a positive note on encouraging global cues