Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

AI Anxiety Hits Wall Street

Wall Street ended sharply lower on Tuesday as investors worried that AI could create more competition for software makers, keeping them on edge ahead of quarterly reports from Alphabet and Amazon later this week.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.4% as software stocks extended losses, Anthropic's launch of workplace productivity tools intensified worries, with the sector shedding approximately $300 billion in market value.

Walmart became the first retailer ever to hit $1 trillion in market valuation on Tuesday, riding on a year-long rally that has seen its shares rise nearly 26%, placing it among the ranks of Big Tech heavyweights such as Nvidia and Alphabet.

Crude oil rose 1.25% to $64.00 per barrel after initially falling on reports of potential US-Iran nuclear negotiations resuming in Turkey. The US shot down an Iranian drone and remains cautious about armed boats, while the India-US trade deal could redirect Russian oil flows and tighten supply elsewhere.

The Nifty opened with its largest single-day absolute gain of over 1,200 points yesterday, fueled by the long-awaited US tariff cuts on Indian imports.

The index settled up 639 points at 25,727, marking its highest one-day percentage gain since May 12, 2025. Bank Nifty touched a fresh all-time high of 61,764 and closed with a robust 2.4% advance.

The Indian Rupee delivered its biggest single-day gain since December 18, 2018, closing at 90.27 vs. USD—its highest in three weeks—driven by "risk-on" sentiment and exporter dollar unwinding post-trade deal news.

Nifty's 1770 point recovery from the recent swing low of 24,571 has reclaimed levels above the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, confirming a bullish trend reversal across timeframes. Nifty’s Key support lies in the 25,500–25,650 band, with resistance at 25,863 and 26,373.

Indian markets are positioned to open modestly lower on cautious global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

We Have A Deal!

Markets are likely to surge nearly 3% higher on open

India and the United States have agreed to a trade agreement under which reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods will be slashed to 18% from 25%, and the additional 25% duty on purchases of Russian crude oil will be eliminated. The trade deal will be " effective immediately", President Donald Trump said, following a phone call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi late Monday, offering immediate tariff relief for India.

Lower Than Most Regional Peers

At 18%, India's tariff rate is now lower than that of several major export-oriented Asian economies. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Taiwan and Vietnam face tariffs of 20%, while Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Pakistan face tariffs of 19%. Cambodia also faces a higher tariff burden at 19%.

The deal includes the rollback of US tariffs on India from 50% to just 18%, a commitment from India to increase US imports by $500 billion, and a reduction in dependence on Russian oil.

The trade deal is likely to stabilise the rupee and ease pressure on domestic interest rates.

Labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, and engineering goods are the clear winners, as all faced growth headwinds due to higher tariffs.

India will have to move away from Russian crude oil in favour of imports from the US and Venezuela, following the removal of Russian oil-related penalties

Indian equity markets are expected to surge 3% on open as the deal completely eliminates key policy uncertainties. The positive sentiment could trigger immediate foreign capital inflows, potentially turning India's Balance of Payments (BoP) position.

This positive surprise will force many participants, including FPIs who are heavily short in the market, to cover their positions, which should lead to a sharp surge across indices and derivative stocks in today's session.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

U.S.-Iran Tensions Drive Oil Above $70, Nifty Breaks Key Resistance Levels

Volatility surged through world markets on Thursday as fears over a U.S. strike on Iran and the threat of another U.S. government shutdown roiled oil and metals, while AI bubble concerns hammered tech stocks and pushed the Nasdaq and S&P 500 into negative territory.

Oil prices climbed sharply, driven by renewed geopolitical risk concerns centred on U.S.-Iran tensions. Brent crude broke above $70 a barrel on Thursday for the first time since July, while WTI crude reached its highest level since September. The rally was triggered by President Trump's escalating threats of military action against Iran and deployment of naval forces to the region, combined with an unexpected 2.3 million barrel drop in U.S. crude inventories.

US stocks mounted a substantial recovery attempt during Thursday's trading session. The major averages climbed well off their worst levels of the day, with the Dow reaching positive territory.

The early sell-off on Wall Street stemmed from a steep drop in Microsoft shares, which plummeted 10.0 per cent to its lowest closing level in nine months.

Microsoft came under pressure after reporting slowing cloud growth in its fiscal second quarter and providing disappointing third-quarter operating margin guidance.

U.S. software stocks declined on Thursday after SAP's underwhelming cloud outlook and a post-earnings slide in ServiceNow deepened concerns that traditional providers are being outpaced by artificial-intelligence players. ServiceNow was down 9%, and SAP fell sharply after weak cloud backlog results. Investors fear AI could disrupt traditional software business models, with markets now demanding clear monetisation strategies rather than increased spending on AI infrastructure alone.

Meta spiked 10.4 per cent on the day after the Facebook parent reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and forecast first-quarter revenues above analyst estimates.

Asian Stocks remained volatile in early trading on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed a bipartisan deal to avert a fresh government shutdown.

The Nifty extended its winning streak to a third session, adding 76 points to settle at 25,418 in a highly volatile session.

Market sentiments were buoyed by the Economic Survey presented in parliament by the Union Finance Minister, which projected FY26 real GDP growth at 7.4% amid macroeconomic resilience, low inflation, and structural reforms.

Nifty has surpassed crucial resistances at the 10 DEMA (25396) and the swing high (25435). Nifty seems to have reversed the short-term bearish trend and could head higher towards the next resistance levels of its 20 and 50-DEMAs, at 25568 and 25712, respectively. Support for the index shifted higher to 25150.

Indian markets are positioned to open modestly lower on cautious global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Fed Holds Rates Steady - Attention Turns to Union Budget

Major U.S. stock indexes closed largely flat on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve's policy announcement.

After initial gains, the major indexes pulled back and traded near unchanged levels for most of the session, eventually ending narrowly mixed.

The S&P 500 briefly surpassed 7,000 for the first time during morning trading. The Nasdaq gained 0.91%, driven by semiconductor strength following ASML's record orders, Texas Instruments' strong guidance, and optimism around sustained AI infrastructure spending.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% following three consecutive quarter-point cuts. Chair Jerome Powell described the economy as solid, with diminished risks to both inflation and employment, signalling that the central bank will likely remain on hold, with inflation still somewhat elevated.

The U.S. Dollar Index recovered to 96.18 on January 29 after hitting four-year lows near 95.50, following Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's reaffirmation of a strong dollar policy. The dollar has weakened 10.78% over the past year amid tariff concerns, geopolitical uncertainties, and President Trump's comments accepting currency weakness.

The euro reached $1.20 for the first time since 2021, marking a 13% gain in 2025, supported by European fiscal stimulus, particularly from Germany, and by reduced reliance on the dollar.

WTI crude oil rose 0.87% to $63.76, reaching four-month highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions after President Trump warned Iran to negotiate, with additional support from a weaker dollar and winter weather.

Gold reached an all-time high above $5,500 per ounce with a record single-day gain of $221.70, while silver surged to $116.48, up 277% year-over-year, driven by dollar weakness, geopolitical tensions with Iran, and safe-haven demand.

Nifty extended gains for the second consecutive session, rising 167 points (0.66%) to close at 25,342.

The short-term trend has turned positive, as Nifty has crossed its 5-day EMA at 25270. To maintain this bullish bias, the index must hold the recent swing low of 24,932. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,435, followed by positional 50DEMA resistance at 25,725.

Indian markets are positioned to open modestly lower on cautious global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

US FOMC announcement in Focus, Indian Markets Boosted by EU Trade Deal

World stocks and the S&P 500 reached new highs Tuesday, driven by strong U.S. earnings, while anxiety over President Trump's policies pushed gold to record levels and the dollar to a four-year low.

The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to close at a record near 6,994, and the Nasdaq gained 1.0% as investors focused on big-tech earnings. Apple climbed 3%, Meta rose 2.1%, and Microsoft gained 0.9% ahead of results, while the Dow fell 0.5%, dragged down by UnitedHealth's 18% plunge.

UnitedHealth shares crashed after the Trump administration proposed a minor increase in Medicare Advantage payment rates for 2027, far below expectations. The insurer also issued weak 2026 revenue guidance, pulling down Humana (-17%) and CVS Health (-12%).

The U.S. Dollar Index fell to its lowest level since February 2022, reaching 96.20 as investors grew wary of unpredictable Washington policymaking. Trump's comments that the dollar is "doing great" and can fluctuate "like a yo-yo" failed to halt the decline, which accelerated after he expressed no concern about the weakness.

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates between 3.5% and 3.75% when it announces its decision today. Markets show a 95.6% probability of unchanged rates. The announcement comes ahead of the expiration of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term in May.

Gold hit an all-time high above $5,110 per ounce, climbing over 1% to around $5,080 Tuesday on safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks.

Trump announced tariffs on South Korean goods would rise from 15% to 25%, affecting cars, pharmaceuticals, and other products, citing Seoul's failure to enact a July trade deal. The move intensified trade tensions as markets await the Fed's decision.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index plunged 9.7 points to 84.5 in January, the lowest since 2014. The Expectations Index fell to 65.1, well below the recession threshold of 80, reflecting consumer concerns about inflation, tariffs, and labour markets despite strong GDP growth.

Nifty staged a dramatic intraday reversal, gaining 126 points to close at 25,175 after plunging to test the key swing low support level.

Nifty formed a double bottom pattern near 25,900 support while reclaiming both 200DMA and 200EMA, indicating early signs of a potential bullish reversal. However, confirmation requires a decisive break above the prior swing high resistance at 25,435, with 24,900 acting as immediate support.

Indian equity markets are poised to open on a positive note, buoyed by robust sentiment surrounding the India-EU trade agreement.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Trump's Tariff Retreat Sparks Wall-Street Rally.

US stocks rallied for a second consecutive day on Thursday after President Trump backed away from threats of tariffs on Europe, easing geopolitical tensions. The S&P 500 rose 1.16% to 6,875.62, the Dow gained 1.21% to 49,077.23, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.18% to 23,224.82.

The market rebound accelerated after Trump announced a framework deal with NATO on Greenland and the Arctic region. Trump ruled out the use of military force to acquire Greenland during a Wednesday speech, signalling a softer diplomatic approach to the territory.

Following his preliminary agreement with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump withdrew threats to impose sanctions on European countries that had opposed his plans for Greenland. The détente marked a sharp reversal from his earlier confrontational stance toward European allies.

Intel plunged over 10% in after-hours trading following disappointing forward guidance, erasing gains from Wednesday's nearly 12% rally. The chipmaker had surged to four-year highs after Nvidia's $5 billion investment and a US government stake, but weak outlook tempered enthusiasm despite optimism around new server chips and foundry expansion.

The US Dollar Index fell 0.41% to 98.37, marking its largest one-day decline in a month, despite upward GDP revisions to 4.4% from 4.3% and jobless claims beating expectations at 200K versus 212K forecast. Dovish Fed expectations and concerns over potential political interference in central bank independence weighed on the greenback.

Natural gas futures surged over 12% to $5.48 per MMBtu, nearing December 2022 levels, as extreme cold weather forecasts through early February threaten to drive heating demand to near-record levels. The commodity is tracking toward a weekly gain of more than 70%, the largest since 1990.

Nifty halted its three-session slide, rebounding 132 points to close at 25,289 after a volatile session that tested key technical levels. The index gapped up 187 points at open and held firm for the first 45 minutes before reversing post-10 AM, plunging 267 points to 25,168, finding support precisely at the 200DEMA (25,164) for a sharp 164 point rebound in the final hour.

The Indian rupee broke its losing streak, appreciating 6 paise against the greenback to close at 91.63 yesterday. The currency stabilised as global risk appetite improved following US President Trump’s withdrawal of tariff threats against Europe.

Short-term resistance remains entrenched at 25450-25500, while support has shifted higher to 25,150 near the 200DEMA confluence.

The Indian markets will be closed on Monday, January 26, 2026, for Republic Day.

Indian benchmark indices are poised to open marginally lower today, testing resilience as investors monitor whether key indices can find support at near-term levels.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Wall Street Surges on Trump's Dovish Davos Turn

Wall Street surged on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 posting its largest one-day gain in two months after President Trump announced a framework agreement on Greenland and cancelled planned tariffs for February 1st on European nations.

Major indices rallied sharply: the Dow jumped 588 points (1.2%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose 1.2%, reversing Tuesday's worst selloff since October. The rebound followed Trump's Davos remarks, ruling out military force against Greenland and scrapping threatened European tariffs.

Markets removed the tail risk of U.S.-NATO confrontation. The dollar strengthened while Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year note declining to 4.25%.

The European Union's legislative body halted work on the formal approval and implementation of the trade deal it reached last summer with President Donald Trump.

Gold retreated from its record high of $4,887 per ounce to around $4,840 as geopolitical tensions eased, though the precious metal remains up 8.59% month over month and 75.18% year over year. Silver dropped 1.6% as risk appetite returned to equities.

Netflix plunged in after-hours trading despite beating Q4 revenue and earnings expectations. Investors focused on slowing subscriber growth and weak forward guidance, overlooking the company's 325 million subscriber milestone. Netflix also announced it would pause buybacks to finance its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery.

The Indian Rupee fell 72 paise to a record low of 91.69 against the US Dollar yesterday—its steepest single-day decline in two months.

The currency faces pressure from aggressive foreign capital outflows and delays in a U.S. trade deal, while heightened geopolitical uncertainty continues to accelerate depreciation despite central bank interventions.

Nifty declined for a third consecutive session, dropping 75 points to close at 25,157. The index held above its 200-day SMA (25,124), with yesterday's low of 24,919 now serving as support. The 25,470-25,500 band will continue to act as strong resistance.

Indian equity markets are poised to open on a positive note, buoyed by robust global sentiment and growing optimism surrounding a potential India-US trade agreement.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Wall-Street selloff - Biggest one-day drop in three months

All ​the three major Wall Street indexes ended Tuesday with their biggest one-day drops in three months, in a broad selloff triggered by concerns that fresh tariff threats from President Donald Trump against Europe could signal renewed market volatility.

U.S. stocks tumbled Tuesday as President Trump threatened tariffs on nations opposing Greenland's acquisition.

The Dow dropped 871 points or 1.8%, while the Nasdaq fell 2.4% and the S&P 500 declined 2.1%. All Magnificent Seven tech stocks lost at least 1.1%.

The dollar weakened and Treasury yields climbed to August highs.

Precious metals reached historic levels as safe-haven demand intensified amid trade tensions.

Gold exceeded $4,700 per ounce for the first time, gaining 2.9%, while silver surpassed $95 per ounce. Investors fled risk assets following Trump's escalating tariff rhetoric and renewed European trade conflict concerns, boosting safe haven flows.

The U.S. Dollar Index tumbled to 98.44, down nearly 1%, marking its largest decline since Trump's April Liberation Day tariff announcement. The dollar's weakness against major currencies reflected growing investor concerns about prolonged geopolitical uncertainty and potential retaliation from European allies.

Back home, the Nifty crashed 353 points (1.38%) to close at 25,232.50, while the BSE Sensex tumbled 1,066 points (1.28%) to 82,180.47, marking their lowest levels since mid-October 2025.

This represents the steepest single-day decline in last 9 months, as US President Donald Trump's renewed tariff threats over Greenland rattled global markets and triggered widespread selling pressure.

The index decisively breached the crucial swing low at 25,473 during the session and is now placed close to the 200-day EMA (25,160) and SMA (25,113), major technical supports.

A break below these 200 day average levels could trigger further selling toward the 24,800-24,900 support zone, while the 25,470-25,500 will interchange its role as resistance on any pullback attempts.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

US Futures Fall on Trump's New Tariff Threat Over Greenland

U.S. President Donald Trump's renewed tariff threats against European allies amid rising tensions over Greenland have revived talk of the 'Sell America' trade that emerged following his sweeping Liberation Day levies last April.

The dollar retreated to its lowest level in a week during early trading on Tuesday after White House threats toward the European Union over Greenland's future triggered a broad selloff across U.S. stocks and government bonds.

US markets were closed yesterday for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, a federal holiday honouring the civil rights leader.

US Stock futures declined sharply after President Trump threatened 10% tariffs on eight NATO allies, beginning on February 1, escalating to 25% by June 1, over his demands regarding Greenland.

Investors are preparing for quarterly results from Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, and Intel this week as corporate guidance takes on heightened importance amid the geopolitical uncertainty.

China left its benchmark lending rates unchanged for an eighth consecutive month on Tuesday, matching market expectations. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) held steady at 3.0%, while the five-year LPR remained at 3.5%.

Oil prices stayed volatile as economic growth data from China lifted demand optimism, even as markets tracked President Trump's tariff threats against European nations amid his interest in acquiring Greenland.

Iran's crackdown on protests has quelled civil unrest, lowering the risk of attacks that could disrupt supplies from the major Middle Eastern producer. With Iran accounting for a significant share of global output, recent indications of no immediate U.S. military intervention have helped reduce supply risks across the Persian Gulf region.

Gold resumed its advance and hit a new record high on Monday as the U.S. dollar weakened against most major peers following President Trump's latest tariff threats against Europe over Greenland.

Asian markets traded mixed on Tuesday morning amid tensions between the U.S. and the EU and rising borrowing-cost concerns, as yields on Japan's 40-year government bonds reached 4% for the first time.

The Nifty resumed its downtrend yesterday, plunging 108 points to close at 25,585, its lowest level in this ongoing correction. The sharp decline was primarily fuelled by disappointing quarterly results from blue-chip heavyweights.

Nifty has now retreated nearly 3% from its all-time high of 26,373. A decisive breach below the 25,473 mark would violate the current consolidation range, potentially accelerating the slide toward the next major support at 25,318. Meanwhile, immediate resistance has now shifted lower to 25,865.

Indian markets are positioned to open modestly higher on positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Volatility Persists Amid Global Headwinds and Weak Quarterly Results

Global investor sentiment sustained multiple blows from policy developments, including US proposals to cap credit card interest rates, new tariffs targeting nations trading with Iran, and an increasingly aggressive stance toward Greenland.

These headlines heightened uncertainty around consumer spending and global trade flows, overshadowing pockets of corporate resilience.

Back home, Disappointing earnings from major blue-chip companies are expected to weigh on sentiment at the opening bell, with little in the results to inspire investor confidence.

This mood extended to the broader market, where weakness was more evident; a majority of Nifty 500 stocks stayed in the red for mid-January.

While foreign investors maintained their bearish stance, Domestic Institutional Investors countered with robust buying, providing a crucial support pillar amid the uncertainty.

The Indian Rupee extended its decline for a third straight day on Friday, weakening by 57 paise to close at 90.86, its lowest level in a month. Rupee’s underperformance relative to its Asian peers stems from a "perfect storm" of high dollar demand and a retreating tide of foreign capital.

Nifty remains in a consolidation zone between 25,473 and 25,900. A decisive breakout on either side will dictate the next directional move.

Key monitors ahead include Q3 earnings, US Fed signals, and rupee stability.

Indian markets are set to open lower, weighed down by disappointing quarterly results from blue-chip heavyweights.