Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

European Markets Steady on US Thanksgiving Holiday; India's Q2 GDP Growth in Focus

European stocks edged slightly higher on Thursday while the dollar held steady, as investor confidence in a December Federal Reserve rate cut supported market sentiment and helped bitcoin stabilise above recent lows.

The holiday-shortened week led to muted trading activity across markets. Equities maintained a broadly positive tone and currencies traded with reduced volatility as investors set aside earlier concerns about an AI bubble that had unsettled markets in November.

US stock futures are flat following the Thanksgiving holiday.

The US dollar was on track for its steepest weekly decline in four months on Thursday, as investors anticipated further monetary easing amid President Donald Trump's pressure on the Fed to lower rates.

India's Q2FY26 GDP data is scheduled for release today. Economists broadly expect GDP growth to be between 7% and 8%, though nominal GDP growth—economic expansion before inflation adjustments—may have decelerated further.

Crude oil traded around $58.95, remaining steady after a mid-week rebound as traders weighed upcoming OPEC+ policy decisions against potential supply shifts stemming from Ukraine-related negotiations.

Nifty finally registered a fresh all-time high at 26,310, surpassing its previous peak of 26,277, hit on 27 September 2024 after a gap of 289 trading sessions or 14 months of consolidation.

Expectations of high GDP growth and emerging signs of earnings recovery fueled Nifty.

The narrowing of valuation premiums versus other Asian markets, coupled with robust domestic mutual fund inflows and relatively limited AI sector exposure, is rekindling investor interest in Indian equities.

The next resistance is placed near 26,500, while support for the index is positioned in the 26,000–26,050 band.

GIFT Nifty is trading marginally higher, signalling a modestly positive opening for the Nifty.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

AI Stocks and Rate Cut Bets Power Wall Street's Pre-Holiday Momentum

Wall Street extended its rally on Wednesday as revived tech strength and the increasing probability of a December interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve put investors in a buying mood the day before the Thanksgiving holiday.

All three major U.S. stock indexes notched their fourth consecutive daily gains, as investors looked past concerns about inflated tech valuations that dragged all three into losses last week.

Alphabet continues to trade near record highs as investors position for its AI chips and Gemini platform, while Nvidia rebounded around 2% after recent scrutiny over its financing practices. Dell, Oracle and other AI-levered names rose on signs of strong server and cloud demand.

Dell Technologies jumped 5.8% in the wake of its better-than-expected earnings and upbeat forecast.

The markets have recently benefited from renewed optimism about the outlook for interest rates following dovish comments from some Federal Reserve officials.

Financial markets are currently pricing in an 84.9% probability that the central bank will reduce its key Fed funds target rate by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its December policy meeting.

The US stock market will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday today. Wall Street is scheduled to reopen on Friday, 28 November 2025, for a shortened trading session due to Black Friday.

Asian stocks rose on Thursday, and the dollar was soft on growing expectations of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month, while the yen stayed in the spotlight, with traders weighing the prospect of a rate hike before the end of the year.

Gold is hovering around $4,160 per ounce after climbing nearly 1% Wednesday, supported by a softer dollar and expectations of easier Fed policy. Looser policy reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Firm gains across US and Asian markets, backed by softer US retail sales and producer prices and expectations of a December Fed cut, created a supportive backdrop for Indian equities and helped trigger short-covering.

Indian markets broke their three-session losing streak with a strong 320-point rally to close at 26,205, marking their second-highest close on record.

Nifty found support near its 20-day exponential moving average (20 DEMA) and resumed its primary uptrend after a brief correction.

Above 26,277, the next resistance for Nifty comes in at the psychologically crucial round number mark of 26,500. On the downside, immediate support has now shifted higher to the 26,000–26,050 zone, which is likely to act as a near-term demand area on any pullback.

Indian markets are poised to open higher today on positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Rate Cut Optimism Lifts U.S. Markets as Retail Stocks Shine

American stocks rose substantially on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq recovering from an early decline to join the Dow and S&P 500 in positive territory.

Alphabet surged nearly 3% on reports that Meta may adopt its AI chips, boosting sentiment around its Gemini platform. Nvidia and AMD fell 3% and 4% respectively, amid competitive concerns.

Weaker-than-expected retail sales and producer price data fueled expectations of continued Fed rate cuts, driving a multi-day equity rally.

Retailers outperformed - Kohl's jumped over 40% and Abercrombie 18% after beating profit expectations and raising guidance, while Best Buy gained 5%.

The rally reflected growing optimism about lower rates, fueled by dovish Fed commentary and recent economic data. Markets now price in an 80.2% probability of a 25-basis-point December rate cut, up sharply from 43.4% last week.

Asian stocks rose today, following Wall Street higher as weaker U.S. economic data reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month.

Oil prices fell over 1% on Tuesday after Ukraine suggested intensive U.S. diplomatic efforts to end the war with Russia may be progressing.

Natural gas plunged nearly 6% on forecasts of milder winter weather and strong U.S. production.

Bitcoin traded around $87,800, recovering from recent lows alongside modest gains in altcoins.

The Nifty 50 extended its losing streak to a third consecutive session yesterday, on November 25, declining by 74 points to close at 25,884

Nifty has closed very near to its previous swing low of 25856 and near to its 20 DEMA placed at 25838.

On the upside, the zone between 26,000 and 26,050 is likely to act as a strong resistance area in the near term.

Gift Nifty signals a positive start today, pointing toward a gap-up open on the back of positive global and Asian cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Indian Markets Eye Recovery as Global Sentiment Stabilises

Friday brought welcome relief to major US indices, fuelled by renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut rates in December after dovish remarks from policymakers.

Technology and communication services lagged amid profit-taking that hit AI and cloud leaders, despite strong earnings from Nvidia and Amazon.

Homebuilding stocks rallied sharply on rate optimism, while discount retailers such as Ross Stores surged on strong earnings.

Defensive sectors like consumer staples held up better, cushioning overall losses. The VIX remained elevated in the low-20s as investors weighed Fed easing hopes against growth, tariffs, and labour-market uncertainties.

Back home, the rupee hit an all-time low of 89.67 against the dollar, pressured by subdued risk sentiment, global uncertainties, and delays in the US-India trade deal.

Indian markets drew support from the RBI's export relief measures, though sentiment was dampened by October's widening trade deficit and sharp export contraction. PMI data showed continued expansion despite moderating manufacturing momentum.

Healthy Q2 earnings, robust macro indicators, and reviving FPI inflows—aided by easing inflation and stable crude prices—provided a liquidity cushion for large caps.

Broader markets underperformed.

Nifty fell sharply on Friday, though it remains above its nearest moving average support at 26038. Below 26038, the recent swing low at 25856 is expected to act as a crucial support level, while 26277 remains short-term resistance.

Indian markets have demonstrated resilience in weathering recent setbacks and now appear poised to challenge previous peaks.

Markets are likely to open buoyantly and attempt to break out of the recent consolidation phase today.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Tech Retreat Deepens Amid AI Bubble Concerns, Nvidia Results Awaited

Wall Street stocks closed sharply lower on Tuesday as technology shares retreated amid concerns about AI valuations, and bitcoin briefly dipped below $90,000, signalling reduced risk appetite.

All three major U.S. stock indexes ended deep in negative territory, while crude, bitcoin, and gold advanced, and Treasury yields dipped.

Nvidia shares tumbled as traders braced for results that could significantly impact markets, given recent AI bubble fears. Outside tech, Home Depot slipped after missing earnings and cutting its full-year outlook.

European shares hit a one-month low, with German stocks at near five-month lows, as investors grew wary of tech valuations and dimming prospects for a December Fed rate cut.

A strong Nonfarm Payrolls report on Thursday could trigger repricing for further easing next month. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign a 50% probability to a December rate cut—up from 46% earlier in the day but below last week's 67%.

Oil prices slipped 0.5% to around $60, as supply concerns rose and a modest U.S. inventory build has kept oil relatively stable despite broader market selling.

Nifty snapped its six-session winning streak yesterday, slipping 103 points to close at 25,910 as broad-based selling dominated the session.

A breakdown below the low of 25,876 could open the door for further declines toward the next support zone of 25,700–25,750.

On the upside, Nifty needs to reclaim the 26030 high.

Indian markets are likely to open mildly higher on the back of positive Asian cues.

Nvidia's Wednesday earnings report will test whether the AI boom has staying power amid mounting valuation concerns.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Tech Selloff Deepens as Nvidia Results Loom

US stocks closed sharply lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling below key technical levels for the first time since late April.

The selloff intensified throughout the session, dragging major indices to one-month lows as valuation concerns resurfaced ahead of Nvidia's earnings.

The world's largest company by market cap fell 1.9%, leading declines and acting as the biggest drag on both the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Wednesday's after-hours earnings report looms large — results and guidance could significantly impact markets amid growing concerns about the AI bubble.

Weakness spread across big tech, with Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon all declining as retail investors showed diminished appetite for buying dips.

Concerns over US consumer health and sector rotation pressures combined with tech valuation anxiety to drive broad-based weakness

Crude oil dropped 0.68% to below $60/barrel following the resumption of Russian exports at Novorossiysk. Oversupply concerns now overshadow geopolitical risks.

Gold retreated 1.8% to near $4,011/oz as reduced Fed rate cut expectations and dollar stabilisation outweighed central bank buying support.

Japan's Q3 GDP contracted 1.8%, its first decline in six quarters, though better than the expected 2.5% drop. US markets await delayed jobs data and key retail earnings later this week.

Japanese bond yields have climbed to 17-year highs, intensifying concerns about tightening global liquidity.

Nifty rose for the sixth consecutive session yesterday with a rise of 103 points to close at 26013, marking its highest close since October 29, 2025. This gain was supported by optimism over a potential U.S.-India trade deal, highlighted by a recent LPG import contract, and improved domestic risk sentiment following a strong election performance by the ruling party.

Nifty is marching towards the crucial resistance of 26100 with a gradual rise in bullish momentum. Above 26100, Nifty could extend the rally towards a fresh all-time high above 26277. On the lower side, 25800 could offer short-term support.

Indian markets are poised to open slightly subdued today on weak global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Nvidia Earnings Take Centre Stage this week, PSU Buying and Political Clarity Support Indian Markets.

The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 climbed well off their lows and into positive territory before eventually ending the day roughly flat.

Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, as well as indications that key U.S. economic data may never be released due to the government shutdown, have reduced confidence that the central bank will continue lowering interest rates next month.

Overall results remained well above analysts’ expectations relative to forecasts before the release of third-quarter numbers.

S&P 500 companies’ earnings are expected to rise by an average of 13.1% versus a forecast for about 8.0% growth entering earnings season.

Bond market traders dialled back their expectations of an interest rate cut at the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting scheduled to conclude on December 10.

Investors in recent days have fretted about the pace of rate cuts and the pricey valuations of heavyweight artificial intelligence stocks that have fueled much of the U.S. stock market's gains over the past few years.

The most important earnings release this week will be from Nvidia. Nvidia carries an 8% weight in the S&P 500 and a roughly 10% weight in the widely followed Nasdaq 100.

Nvidia is the "epicentre" of AI build-out, so its results after the bell on Wednesday will be significant for the tech sector.

Indian equity markets ended last week on a positive note, buoyed by late buying in PSU stocks, despite volatility from global factors and sector-wide profit booking.

Midcap and smallcap indices underperformed, with market breadth staying negative—profit-taking dominated, as advances lagged declines

The NDA’s decisive victory in the Bihar assembly elections boosted sentiment and drove late buying, especially in PSU banks.

Despite sustained foreign selling, strong domestic inflows and resilient macro data kept the rupee off record lows.

Nifty partially filled the upward gap between 25,715 and 25,781 recorded on November 12, underscoring the importance of this region as a key support zone. The sharp rebound from this level reaffirms the prevailing uptrend, suggesting strong buying interest at lower levels.

Immediate resistance lies at 26,100, followed by 26,277, while the 25,715–25,740 range now serves as a crucial support band.

Indian markets are poised to open mildly higher on positive cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Wall Street Sells Off Sharply Amid Fed Rate Cut Uncertainty, Bihar Election results in focus.

Wall Street ended sharply lower on Thursday, with steep losses in Nvidia and other AI heavyweights, as investors scaled back expectations of interest rate cuts amid inflation worries and divisions among central bankers over the U.S. economy's health.

All three major U.S. stock indexes posted their steepest daily percentage declines in over a month.

The Nasdaq plummeted 2.3% to 22,870, the S&P 500 plunged 1.7% to 6,737, and the Dow tumbled 797 or 1.7% to 47,457.

The U.S. government reopened after a record 43-day shutdown that had worried investors and disrupted the flow of economic data.

The weakness on Wall Street may also have reflected uncertainty about whether key U.S. economic indicators would be released after the most extended government shutdown in U.S. history.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Wednesday that the October jobs and consumer price inflation reports are "likely never being released" as a result of the shutdown.

A growing number of Federal Reserve policymakers in recent days have signalled hesitation about further interest rate cuts, pushing financial market-based odds of a reduction in borrowing costs in December to near even. Fed officials who spoke recently cited worries about inflation and signs of relative stability in the labour market after two U.S. interest rate cuts this year.

Asian shares joined a global selloff on Friday as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials doused hopes for a U.S. rate cut next month.

Crude oil jumped 2.71% to $60.28 per barrel, supported by a drawdown in US inventories and ongoing output restraint among non-OPEC+ producers. Forecasts for tighter near-term supply continue to buoy prices despite global risks and longer-term demand questions.

India’s retail inflation fell to a historic low of 0.25% in October, the third consecutive month below the RBI’s 2–6% target range. Easing inflation supported rate cut hopes and domestic resilience, aiding overall market stability despite global volatility.

Nifty remains in an ongoing uptrend, with immediate resistance at 26,100 and support near 25,715.

Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the Bihar election results, with increased volatility.

Indian markets are poised to open subdued today on weak global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Dow Hits Record High

The Dow closed above 48,000 for the first time, driven by optimism over the imminent end of the 43-day U.S. government shutdown.

Defensive sectors and consumer staples led gains; meanwhile, tech stocks struggled.

Progress toward passing a funding bill in Congress helped lift market sentiment, with investors expecting the release of delayed economic data and an increased chance of a December Fed rate cut once the government reopens.

The Nasdaq posted back-to-back declines as mega-cap technology stocks and AI-linked equities faced profit-taking pressures. Nvidia dropped sharply after SoftBank sold its entire stake and supply-chain partners retreated.

Oil dropped over 4% with OPEC and IEA highlighting a faster build-up of global inventories and soft demand outlook. U.S. production remains high, compounding bearish sentiment even as attacks on infrastructure failed to boost prices.

Gold surged past $4,180/oz, reaching near-record levels as traders eyed a possible Fed rate cut and safe-haven flows continued despite the risk-on tone in equities.

The Nifty extended its winning streak for the third consecutive session, rising 180 points to close at 25,875, supported by optimism over a potential trade deal with the United States.

By closing above 25,800, the Nifty has retraced over 61.8 percent of the entire decline from 26,100 to 25,318, confirming a bullish reversal after the recent correction.

The index now eyes resistance near the previous swing high of 26,100, and a breakout above this level could trigger a move toward fresh record highs beyond 26,277.

On the downside, immediate support has shifted higher to 25,715, forming a strong base for the ongoing rally.

Indian markets are poised to open mildly soft on the back of mixed global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Wall Street Ends Mixed On Tuesday, Hopes of a Trade Deal with the US buoy Indian markets.

The Dow extended its strong upward move and the S&P 500 recovered from early weakness. The tech-heavy NASDAQ has slipped back to the downside.

The Dow surged more than 500 points, setting a new all-time closing high. Optimism grew as the Senate passed a bill to end the 42-day federal government shutdown, boosting confidence that the House would approve it this week.

A 3.1% slump in Nvidia shares weighed on the NASDAQ after SoftBank sold its entire stake in the chipmaker for more than $5 billion.

Gold climbed above $4,130 per ounce, near multi-week highs, as weak jobs data and low consumer sentiment fueled expectations for a December Fed rate cut. The prospect of the government reopening slightly reduces safe-haven demand.

Brent crude rose 1.6% to $65.09 per barrel, the highest since October 31, on the impact of the latest US sanctions on Russian oil and optimism over a potential end to the government shutdown.

The poll of exit polls suggests that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is set to retain power in Bihar.

U.S. President Donald Trump said tariffs on India will be lowered “very substantially”, signalling an easing of tensions over New Delhi's Russian oil purchases as the two countries near a trade deal.

Hopes for a US government reopening, prospects of a trade deal with the US, and optimism about falling global interest rates have buoyed investor sentiment.

The Nifty rose for the second consecutive session yesterday, gaining 120 points to close at 25,694. Nifty faces a crucial resistance near 25,800, and a decisive move beyond this level could negate the existing downtrend and open the door for further upside.

The Indian markets are expected to open higher, as risk-on sentiment is likely to get a boost after the US and India both sounded hopeful of reaching a deal soon.