Stock Market Updates

Dow Scales New Heights Amid Crude Swings

The Dow closed at a new record of 50285, gaining 0.6% after erasing early losses. This rally followed a sharp midday reversal in oil prices, with Brent crude falling over 2% as investors grew hopeful about progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations.

Shares in the quantum computing sector soared after reports emerged of a $2 billion U.S. government funding plan to boost the industry.

The Commerce Department announced $2 billion in funding allocated to nine quantum computing companies, including IBM, Rigetti, and GlobalFoundries, with the U.S. government taking equity stakes in return. The move signals a major federal commitment to next-generation computing infrastructure.

NVIDIA shares declined nearly 2% despite the company reporting better-than-expected first-quarter results and issuing a rosy revenue outlook. Investors appeared cautious about the sustainability of its rapid growth amid intensifying competition in the AI chip market and a broader cooling of the recent artificial intelligence stock boom.

Walmart reported impressive sales and profit growth, yet shares fell as investors fretted over the retailer's warning that rising fuel costs and a 3.8% inflation rate — outpacing wages for the first time — could pressure price-conscious consumers. The ongoing Iran conflict's impact on energy and supply chain costs added to the cautious outlook.

Yields on the 10-year Treasury note slipped to 4.56% on Thursday, pulling back from recent highs that reached their most elevated levels since early 2025. The decline in yields was closely linked to the retreat in oil prices, providing relief to smaller companies in the Russell 2000, which outpaced major indexes with a 0.9% gain.

Oil prices resumed their rally after declining for three straight sessions as investors remained sceptical about a breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks, with Iran's Supreme Leader earlier forbidding uranium removal. While statements from the U.S. had signalled the peace deal was imminent, the Iranian leadership’s reported stance of keeping enriched uranium within their country has raised worries of an extended conflict, keeping oil supplies disrupted for longer.

Asia-Pacific markets opened higher Friday as investors assessed U.S.-Iran diplomatic efforts at reaching a peace deal in the Middle East.

Over the last six trading sessions, Nifty has slipped into an alternating pattern of one session of gains followed by one of losses. Nifty opened 171 points higher on the back of strong global cues, touched its intraday peak of 23859 within the first few minutes, but failed to sustain momentum and reversed sharply. It declined more than 260 points from the high and eventually closed at 23654, down 4 points yesterday.

Immediate support is now seen near 23,400. On the upside, a decisive close above 23,800 could trigger a pullback towards 24016.

Indian markets are poised to open mildly higher on conducive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Markets rally on Diplomatic Progress and Nvidia Beat

Major U.S. stock indexes surged on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak as the Dow Jones reclaimed the 50,000 mark. This rebound was driven by a cooling in 10-year Treasury yields and a sharp decline in oil prices following reports of progress in diplomatic negotiations regarding Middle East conflicts.

AI industry leader Nvidia reported first-quarter results that surpassed analyst expectations for both revenue and profit. Despite raising its dividend and providing a positive sales forecast. The company also announced an $80 billion share buyback, though shares slipped slightly in after-hours trading as investors weighed the results against extremely high market expectations.

Crude Oil plunged more than 5% yesterday on optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement. President Trump stated the US is in the "final stages" of negotiations with Iran, stoking hopes for a near-term reopening of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, though the US military also boarded an Iranian oil tanker suspected of breaching the blockade.

Federal Reserve minutes revealed that an increasing number of policymakers are open to a rate hike, as inflation concerns have been exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Iran.

The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to a 15-month high above 4.10%, and a survey shows fewer than 50% of economists now expect a rate cut this year, down from two-thirds just a month ago.

European Union negotiators reached a preliminary agreement on Wednesday to eliminate certain tariffs on US imports as part of a broader trade arrangement, ahead of a looming US deadline to increase tariffs on automobiles. The development marks a positive step in transatlantic trade relations and contributed to broader market optimism in the session.

South Korean stocks rose more than 6%, helping the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index gain 1.2%. Shares of Samsung Electronics climbed as much as 7% after the company reached a last-minute agreement with its labour union to avoid a strike.

The US Dollar Index traded softer near 99.1, as improving market sentiment around US-Iran diplomatic progress weighed on safe-haven demand.

The rupee closed 29 paise weaker at 96.83 against the dollar, marking a fresh all-time low. The sharp rupee weakness likely reflects persistent FII outflows, elevated crude prices, and safe-haven demand for the dollar amid global risk-off sentiment.

Nifty registered a smart intraday recovery of nearly 300 points from the morning low of 23,397, finally settling at 23,659, up 41 points. Despite negative cues, Nifty has managed to absorb supply at lower levels and is forming higher lows on a short-term time frame. The rebound was largely supported by buying interest in the oil and gas, financial, and automotive sectors, offsetting broader weakness seen in Asian markets.

Support for the index now moves up to around 23,370. A close above the 23800 resistance could extend the pullback towards the next resistance placed near 24,030.

Indian markets are set to open higher on conducive global cues.

Dow Advances while Tech Retreats

U.S. stock indexes saw divergent performances yesterday, as a rally in cyclical stocks buoyed the Dow while tech shares pressured other benchmarks. The Dow rose roughly 0.32% to close at 49686, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both logged back-to-back losses, sliding 0.07% and 0.51% respectively.

Technology shares faced significant pressure, led by a sharp decline in semiconductor and memory stocks. Industry leaders like Seagate and Micron reported substantial losses after executives' comments suggested that memory chip capacity expansions would take considerable time, raising doubts about the industry's ability to meet surging AI-related demand.

Alphabet stock rallied 2.27%, touching a new 52-week high of $406. The move came as investors positioned ahead of anticipated catalysts, with Berkshire Hathaway also reportedly increasing its stake in the company.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained elevated near 4.6% as investors balanced easing bond-market volatility with persistent concerns regarding oil-driven inflation. While yields pulled back slightly from session highs, they remain at their highest levels since early 2025, reflecting a market that is increasingly pricing in a 'higher-for-longer' interest rate environment through the end of 2026.

Crude prices cooled off a little after President Trump announced he had called off a planned strike on Iran, following appeals from Persian Gulf allies. Trump added that 'serious negotiations are now taking place,' spurring optimism that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz could eventually be restored.

The US Dollar Index slipped toward the 99.10 region as traders digested fresh geopolitical headlines surrounding US-Iran negotiations and an upcoming leadership transition at the Federal Reserve.

The Indian rupee reached a fresh all-time low of approximately 96.36 against the US dollar, making it one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia for the year. This depreciation is primarily attributed to rising US Treasury yields and elevated crude oil prices, which have exacerbated concerns over India's balance of payments and imported inflation.

Petrol and diesel prices were increased by 90 paise per litre, the second increase in less than a week.

Nifty defended its swing low support at 23262 yesterday, keeping the near-term bullish outlook intact. With three out of the last four sessions closing in the green, there are early signs of buying interest emerging at lower levels.

Indian markets are poised to open flat to negative amid mixed global cues. The 23,800 level remains a critical resistance, and a decisive breakout above it will be essential for bulls to regain momentum.

Global Markets Retreat As Inflation Pressures Resurface

U.S. equities endured a volatile last week. AI-driven optimism lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh record highs early on, but a barrage of hot inflation data and escalating geopolitical anxiety triggered a sharp global sell-off on Friday, erasing nearly all weekly gains.

The week's defining catalyst was a troubling inflation resurgence. April CPI climbed 0.6% month-over-month, lifting the annual rate to 3.8% — the highest since May 2023. More alarming was the PPI print: wholesale prices surged 1.4% in April, the largest monthly gain since March 2022, pushing annual producer inflation to 6.0% — a level unseen since December 2022.

The bond sell-off accelerated sharply. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.59%, up from below 4.00% as recently as late February. The 2-year yield settled at 4.08%, while the 30-year reached 5.12% — its highest level since 2007.

Markets have abandoned hopes for near-term cuts. Rate futures now imply roughly a 50% probability of a quarter- or half-point hike by December, with a ~49% chance of rates holding and less than 1% pricing in a cut.

The nearly complete US Q1 earnings season has been robust. S&P 500 companies are on pace for revenue growth of 11.4% — the strongest since Q2 2022 — and earnings growth of 27.7%, the best since Q4 2021.

The Indian equity market also faced steep volatility during the last week, resuming its downward trajectory as global and domestic macro headwinds dented investor sentiment.

The primary market trigger was a sharp escalation in US-Iran hostilities, which drove Brent crude prices past the $100 per barrel mark. For import-dependent India, surging oil prices reignited structural inflation fears.

This macro strain immediately hit the currency market, forcing the Indian Rupee to a fresh historic low of over Rs 96 against the US dollar.

A hotter-than-expected US inflation print (both CPI and PPI) fueled global anxieties that the Federal Reserve would hold interest rates higher for longer, triggering a global risk-off environment that hit emerging markets hard.

The Sensex settled 2.7% down while the Nifty shed 2.2% last week. The BSE 150 Mid-Cap index declined 2.65% and the BSE 250 Small-Cap dropped 3.81%.

Nifty is consolidating in a broad range between 23850 to 23250 range. A decisive breakout above 23850 level is needed to revive bullish momentum in the market. On the downside, the swing low of 23,262 continues to act as support for the index.

Indian markets are poised to open 100 points lower from Friday's close near 23550 levels.

Dow Reclaims 50000, Constructive Signals from the Trump-Xi Summit, Doemstic Fuel Prices Hiked by Rs 3 per Litre

U.S. equity markets surged Thursday as the Dow reclaimed the 50,000 milestone and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at record highs.

The rally was driven by AI optimism, the blockbuster Cerebras IPO, and constructive signals from the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing — where Boeing and Nvidia deal announcements drew particular attention.

Cisco jumped more than 13% after beating Q3 earnings estimates and raising its full-year revenue guidance. Cerebras soared 68–99% in its market debut, the largest IPO of 2026.

Nvidia gained over 4% after reports that the U.S. cleared several Chinese firms to purchase its H200 chips.

Treasury yields were little changed, with the 10-year hovering near 4.48%. Inflation data remained mixed — producer and consumer prices stayed elevated, though wholesale prices posted a surprise decline earlier in the week. The Treasury is managing a $125 billion securities refunding maturing today.

Oil prices pulled back, as traders balanced cautious summit optimism against the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S.-Iran conflict.

The EIA raised its U.S. crude production forecast to 13.65 million bpd, while OPEC trimmed its 2026 demand-growth outlook citing the impact of regional conflicts on trade routes. It projects global oil demand to contract by 420,000 barrels per day year-over-year in 2026, adding further pressure on prices.

The Indian rupee recovered part of its losses after touching a record low of 95.96 against the US dollar. It rebounded on expectations that the government may reduce taxes on foreign investment in bond allocations to support capital inflows, and finally closed at 95.77, down 6 paise for the day. The currency’s partial recovery provided some comfort to the broader market sentiment.

Nifty extended its recovery for a second straight session, surging 277 points to close at 23,689. A decisive breakout above 23,800 would strengthen the bullish setup and open the door for a move toward the next resistance near 24,100. The recent swing low of 23262 has emerged as immediate support and can be used as a stop-loss level for long positions.

Indian markets are likely to open flat on mixed market cues.

Nvidia's $5.5 Trillion Milestone Drives US Markets to New Heights

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs on Wednesday, led by a broad technology rally even as hotter-than-expected inflation data tempered sentiment.

Gains were concentrated at the top, as roughly two-thirds of S&P 500 constituents finished the session lower, underscoring the narrow breadth beneath the headline records.

NVIDIA was the standout, surging 2.29% to become the first company in history to reach a $5.5 trillion market capitalisation. CEO Jensen Huang's appearance alongside President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Beijing summit lent the stock additional momentum.

Micron Technology also advanced on AI-driven optimism. After the close, Cisco Systems jumped 18% in extended trading following an earnings beat and an AI-focused restructuring that includes approximately 4,000 job cuts.

On the macro front, inflation continued to reassert itself. April's Producer Price Index rose 6.0% year-over-year — the fastest pace since December 2022 — and climbed 1.4% month-over-month, exceeding consensus on both measures.

Core wholesale prices advanced 5.2% annually. The print compounds Tuesday's April CPI reading of 3.7% and a Q1 PCE of 4.5%, stacking a formidable case that inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target.

The U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. Boston Fed President Susan Collins separately flagged a potential rate hike as a tail risk should inflationary pressures broaden, though she was careful to characterise it as outside her base case.

The 10-year Treasury yield pressed toward 4.5%, and rate-cut expectations for the remainder of the year have largely been priced out ahead of the June 16–17 FOMC meeting.

Asian markets are trading higher today as investors look to a high-stakes meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping for clues on the future of U.S.-China ties and global trade.

The Indian rupee weakened for a fourth straight session and plummted to an all-time low of 95.80 per dollar. Despite the government’s move to raise import duties on gold and silver to discourage purchases, the currency remained under pressure amid sustained foreign capital outflows.

Government banned sugar exports with immediate effect until September 30, 2026, or until further orders, as the world’s second-largest sugar producer moved to contain rising domestic prices. The restrictions apply to both raw and white sugar exports, although shipments already in the pipeline will be permitted under specified conditions.

Nifty snapped its four-session losing streak, rising 33 points to close at 23412. The recovery was supported by strong performance in the metal, oil, and gas sectors, despite continued selling pressure in the IT and Auto stocks. The former support near 23800 is now likely to act as resistance on pullbacks, while immediate downside support is seen around 23100.

Indian markets are likely to open higher on strong global cues.

Semiconductors Slide in the US, Nifty Bleeds on Austerity Measures, Govt. Hikes Import Duty on Bullion.

Major U.S. stock indexes pulled back from recent all-time highs as a massive surge in semiconductor and artificial intelligence stocks lost momentum. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 both ended Tuesday lower, with notable declines in large-cap chipmakers like Micron and AMD following a period of extreme outperformance.

Consumer price index data for April showed an annual inflation rate of 3.8%, surpassing forecasts and marking the highest level since May 2023. This persistent price growth, driven largely by energy costs, has led market participants to price out immediate rate cuts and instead increase bets on potential Federal Reserve interest rate hikes later this year.

Oil prices continue to climb amid unresolved U.S.-Iran tensions, with President Trump dismissing Iran's peace proposal and calling ceasefire talks on 'life support.'

Intel fell 10% to around $116, and AMD dropped 5% to approximately $436 on Tuesday, pulling back sharply after Intel surged 35% and AMD gained 34% in just the prior week.

The Q1 2026 earnings season is proving exceptionally robust, with approximately 84% of S&P 500 companies reporting results that exceed analyst estimates.

The Indian rupee extended its losing streak to a third day, hitting an intraday record low of 95.74 amid general weakness in Asian markets. The depreciation is largely attributed to anxieties over elevated crude oil prices and their adverse impact on the fiscal deficit. Combined with rising risk aversion and sustained foreign capital outflows, these factors have positioned the rupee as the worst-performing Asian currency so far this year.

Nifty witnessed a sharp and broad-based sell-off, declining for the fourth consecutive session and ending 436 points lower at 23,379, marking its steepest single-day fall of the current financial year. Nifty has now surrendered over 1,100 points from its recent swing high of 24,482 in just four days.

Sectoral performance was overwhelmingly negative, with the Nifty IT and Realty indices each crashing by roughly 4%.

IT majors like TCS and Infosys reached new annual lows, pressured by concerns over AI-led service disruptions and a general retreat from growth stocks amid unfavourable global cues.

In a strategic move to curb imports and support the falling rupee, the Indian government increased the import duty on gold and silver to 15%. This policy adjustment aims to protect foreign exchange reserves and narrow the widening trade deficit caused by high energy prices and sustained capital outflows.

Nifty is now placed below its key short-term averages. The earlier support level of 23800 is now expected to act as a resistance on any pullback. On the downside, immediate support is placed near 23100.

Indian markets are likely to open flat on subdued global cues.

The U.S.-Iran Ceasefire on the Edge of Collapse, Markets to shift focus to US-China Summit

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs - 7,412 and 26,274, respectively — as strength in technology and semiconductors outweighed investor unease over the collapse of Iran ceasefire talks.

Market sentiment remains buoyed by the belief that the AI supercycle is in its early stages, with major firms like Micron reaching new record levels.

After President Trump rejected Tehran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable," Brent crude surged to $105 per barrel.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.41% as markets repriced for inflation risk ahead of Tuesday's April CPI release, which economists expect to show a 3.7% year-over-year gain.

The euro held flat against the dollar at $1.18, repeatedly testing but failing to clear that resistance level, with currency markets effectively in a holding pattern until the inflation print.

President Trump and Xi Jinping are set for sweeping talks covering Iran, nuclear policy, trade, and AI — one of the most consequential U.S.-China summits in years. The breadth of the agenda signals a deliberate thaw, with both sides engaging across every major axis of strategic and economic tension.

Executives from Apple, Boeing, Citi, Tesla, and Meta are joining Trump in China, one of the most significant corporate delegations ever to accompany a sitting president.

Their presence confirms that trade normalisation and market access sit at the heart of the U.S. agenda. The outcome of the summit could materially shift global markets, energy dynamics, and the AI race simultaneously.

The Indian rupee began the week on a weak footing, depreciating by 83 paise to close at a record low amid escalating geopolitical tensions. The decline was primarily driven by a breakdown in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations, which led to a surge in crude oil prices and strengthened the U.S. dollar’s safe-haven appeal.

Domestic sentiment was further dampened by Prime Minister Modi’s “Nation First” austerity call, urging reduced fuel consumption and postponement of non-essential foreign travel to conserve foreign exchange reserves.

Nifty extended its losing streak for the third consecutive session, declining sharply by 360 points to settle at 23815, weighed down by rising crude prices and a weakening rupee. Nifty is likely to breach the critical support level of 23,800 at the open. The next strong support comes in at the 23,550-23500 range. On the upside, the 24000–24125 zone is expected to serve as immediate resistance.

Indian markets are likely to open lower today on weak global cues.

Market Summary: Global Records vs. Domestic Austerity

The financial landscape is currently defined by a sharp contrast between record-breaking U.S. and Asian performance and a cautious, "austerity-focused" environment in India.

• U.S. Performance: The S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit fresh record highs last week, marking their sixth consecutive weekly gain. This was fueled by a blowout April jobs report (115,000 new jobs vs. 55,000 forecast) and a massive upward revision in corporate earnings.

• Earnings Growth: S&P 500 net income is projected to rise by 27.7%, the strongest growth since 2021.

• Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s Kospi hit a record high Monday morning, jumping 3.67% as it navigated regional tensions and oil price surges.

• Energy Surge: Brent crude has climbed back above $105/barrel due to supply disruptions and conflict with Iran. This has made energy the top-performing sector of 2026, up nearly 25% year-to-date.

• Sticky Inflation: With U.S. inflation hitting 3.3% and energy costs surging (up 12.5% YoY in March), analysts predict interest rate cuts may be delayed until 2027, with some even eyeing potential rate hikes later this year.

• Consumer Sentiment: U.S. sentiment fell to 48.2 in May, reflecting public anxiety over rising fuel and living costs.

While global indexes hit records, Indian benchmarks (Nifty 50 and Sensex) ended the week lower due to foreign outflows and profit booking. The domestic focus has shifted toward economic preservation:

• PM Modi’s Appeal: To protect foreign exchange reserves and combat the impact of high oil prices, the Prime Minister has urged citizens to:

  • Postpone Gold Purchases: Defer buying for at least one year.

  • Limit Travel: Postpone non-essential foreign vacations and destination weddings.

  • Adopt Remote Work: Revive pandemic-era WFH habits to save fuel.

  • Dietary Shifts: Reduce edible oil consumption for health and economic reasons.

• Market Outlook: The Indian market is in a consolidation phase. Experts expect the Nifty to oscillate between 23,800 and 24,400, with a likely lower opening today following weak global cues and geopolitical instability in the Middle East.

US Markets Retreat as Hormuz Tensions Push Crude Higher

American forces struck Iranian military facilities responsible for attacks on warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, adding that US forces "do not seek escalation."

Oil resumed its rally Friday after US and Iranian forces exchanged fire near the Strait of Hormuz, stoking fears that a fragile ceasefire was unravelling and threatening further disruption to one of the world's most critical shipping lanes.

The military exchanges injected fresh uncertainty into global markets, with crude jumping roughly 2% in after-hours trading amid revived concerns over energy supply stability and inflation.

US equities retreated with the S&P 500 falling 0.38% to 7,337.11 and the Dow shedding 313 points to 49,596.97 — though both indexes remain well above year-ago levels following April's record monthly advance. Losses were driven by a cooldown in technology stocks, with the Dow slipping more than 0.6% after failing to breach the 50,000 threshold.

Broadcom shares dropped 4% after reports emerged that its landmark $18 billion AI chip deal with OpenAI is facing a major financing hurdle, contingent on Microsoft committing to purchase roughly 40% of the chips. Should Microsoft decline, the financing terms for the project would need to be renegotiated, casting doubt over the timeline of the high-profile partnership.

While long-term appetite for artificial intelligence remains robust, semiconductor firms like Intel and Advanced Micro Devices faced significant pressure, with some shares falling roughly 3%. This retreat follows a period of strong quarterly gains, as investors begin to weigh lofty valuations against actual earnings performance.

The Indian rupee strengthened for the second consecutive session yesterday, appreciating by 36 paise to close at 94.25, supported by gains in Asian currencies. Support came from short covering and steady dollar inflows through domestic banks.

Nifty extended its alternating trend of gains and losses, slipping marginally by 4 points to settle at 24,326. Despite the profit booking during the second half, the broader technical structure remains intact, with the index sustaining the uptrend. Immediate support is at the 24,000 level, while resistance is near 24,600.

Indian markets are likely to open lower on weak global cues.