Stock Market Updates

Wall Street Slips as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Resurface

U.S. stocks pulled back from record highs Monday as renewed uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz reignited inflation fears ahead of this week's CPI report. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite all closed modestly lower, snapping a two-week rally that had carried the S&P to a record close near 7,758.

AI-related names came under pressure after reports that Nvidia is working with major private equity firms on a financing initiative to mobilise more than $500 billion in third-party capital for hyperscalers, frontier AI labs, and enterprises building out data centres and buying Nvidia hardware. Nvidia shares slipped about 3% on the news. By channelling institutional credit, insurance capital, and private funding into underwriting GPUs and data centres, the arrangement lets customers finance AI infrastructure without straining their own balance sheets.

WTI and Brent crude climbed to $82 and $88 a barrel, respectively, after President Trump demanded compensation from Iran, dimming hopes of a near-term reopening. No agreement has materialised, and positions in Washington and Tehran have hardened.

The rally has pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.71% and revived inflation concerns heading into Thursday's CPI print.

Adding to the policy picture, a surprise 23,000-job contraction in July nonfarm payrolls has led traders to sharply pare bets on a September rate hike, with markets now leaning toward the Fed holding steady.

Asian markets opened mixed today. Japanese markets are shut today for Mountain Day.

Indian E-way bill generation continued to signal sustained economic activity, rising 5.98% YoY to 139.79 million in July 2026 from 131.91 million a year earlier — the second-highest monthly level on record, just below March 2026's peak of 140.60 million. Sequentially, generation rose 2.21% from 136.77 million in June, even as growth moderated to 12.4% in Q1FY27 from 15.7% in Q4FY26.

The Nifty witnessed a volatile, range-bound session on Dalal Street, closing at 24,583, up 13 points in yesterday's session. It continues to oscillate between its 200-day SMA at 24,758 and 200-day EMA at 24,384. The primary trend remains bullish, with the index trading above its key near-term averages. A decisive break away from this range is likely to trigger a sharper directional move in the index.

Indian equities are set for a muted start today, weighed down by subdued global cues, as the ongoing Q1 earnings season continues to steer both stock-specific and broader market sentiment.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Markets snap winning streak, focus turns to jobs report and Hormuz standoff

Major U.S. indexes closed slightly lower Thursday, ending a multi-day winning streak as investors booked profits after recent record highs.

The Dow fell 0.9%, weighed down by leadership changes and weak earnings at individual names; the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% for a second straight session, and the Nasdaq eased 0.1%.

Investors weighed a heavy earnings slate — including Insulet's 20% plunge on cut guidance — against Middle East tensions and today's expected jobs report.

European stocks bucked the trend, with the STOXX 600 hitting fresh records on strong earnings and optimism over a possible US-Iran deal.

Tech sentiment cracked after memory-chip makers Western Digital and SanDisk issued forecasts that fell short of lofty AI-driven expectations. Western Digital slid more than 14% and SanDisk over 9% in premarket trading, dragging Nasdaq 100 futures lower and raising questions about whether momentum is cooling among former AI market leaders.

Attention now shifts to Friday's July nonfarm payrolls report, expected to show a modest 83,000 gain with unemployment holding at 4.2%. Market players will watch wage growth and labour-force participation for further signals on labour-market health.

Crudel Oil rallied sharply after Iran published a draft plan to bar U.S. and Israeli vessels from the Strait of Hormuz and impose steep fines on violators — reversing earlier-week optimism that had pushed Brent down toward $75 on hopes of an Iran-Oman deal to reopen the waterway.

Brent jumped to $83 and WTI to near $78, a 3–4% surge. A broader U.S.-Iran agreement, which the Trump administration had signalled could be reached by Thursday, now looks unlikely to close soon.

Indian government reaffirmed its commitment to tariff rationalisation. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Customs duties on most products are likely to be reduced to single-digit levels by the FY28 Budget, adding that rates have already been rationalised for all but 13 items.

The rupee was the laggard among Asian currencies, depreciating 10 paise to close at 95.22, pressured by a rebound in global commodity costs and persistent dollar demand from importers.

It was a muted session on Dalal Street yesterday, with the Nifty closing at 24,636, up 11 points. Nifty’s volatility has contracted over the past three trading sessions, with the index forming lower highs and higher lows on a daily basis.

The primary trend remains bullish as the index holds above all key moving averages. On the upside, 24,770 and 25,000 are likely to act as immediate resistance levels, while the 24,430–24,380 zone may provide support on declines.

Indian markets are set to open marginally lower today on the back of higher crude oil prices.

U.S. Stocks Hit Record Highs on Earnings Strength, Easing Oil Prices

The US markets closed at record highs Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 1.8% — its first record close since June — and the Nasdaq Composite up 2.6%, now nearly 9% higher since last Wednesday.

Strong corporate earnings, a 4% rally in technology stocks, and falling oil prices drove the advance, while easing expectations for aggressive Fed rate hikes added further support.

Earnings are the session's biggest driver of the rally. Microsoft shares surged 25% over three days on blowout Q4 FY26 results, with Azure revenue nearing a $100 billion annual run rate and Copilot surpassing 30 million paid seats.

Palantir Technologies jumped nearly 30% after beating quarterly expectations and raising full-year revenue guidance, while Caterpillar climbed more than 5% to lead the Dow on record revenue, an upgraded growth outlook, and strong equipment demand tied to the AI data-center buildout; the company also trimmed its full-year tariff-cost guidance to the lower end of its prior range.

McDonald's shares slipped after U.S. sales growth came in weaker than expected following an underwhelming value-deal push.

SpaceX drew attention as short interest spiked to elevated levels ahead of earnings, with Musk warning short sellers and the company flagging higher-than-expected AI infrastructure spending; separately, SpaceX reported a $4.9 billion loss last year, split between a $542 million operating loss in its launch business — which depends heavily on Defense Department and NASA contracts — and a $1.26 billion loss in its AI unit, formed via the February merger with xAI, partly offset by $1.66 billion in operating income from its connectivity business.

Oil prices fell sharply after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a U.S.–Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping could be reached within a day.

Brent crude oil dropped more than 5%, three-week low, below $80. The moves followed President Trump's weekend comments that he had called off a planned strike on Iran to allow room for negotiations.

The de-escalation also pulled the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.62%, as markets lowered the odds of a September Fed rate cut hike.

In currency markets, the dollar weakened broadly, with EUR/USD approaching $1.15, while the yen traded near 157 per dollar.

The Indian rupee depreciated 4 paise to close at 95.38, moving in line with its Asian peers as and a firmer US dollar weighed on the currency. Participants awaited the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy outcome for further direction today.

Nifty saw a sharp 150-point spike in the closing auction session (CAS), aided by more than 1% moves in more than ten Nifty stocks.

Nifty remains in an overall uptrend, trading above all key moving averages. Immediate resistance is placed near 24,770, while support is seen at 24,375, aligned with the 200-day EMA.

Our Markets are poised to open higher today on the back of falling crude prices and buoyant US market cues.

Dow sets new closing record amid geopolitical de-escalation

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 700 points to close at a record 53,178— its 22nd record close this year. The S&P 500 gained 1.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.1%, as easing U.S.-Iran tensions and stronger-than-expected July manufacturing data lifted sentiment.

Amazon topped a $3 trillion market valuation for the first time as growth stocks rebounded broadly. The "Magnificent Seven" added a combined $1.77 trillion in market capitalisation over three trading days, aided by falling Treasury yields.

Brent crude fell to settle near $84 a barrel, after President Trump signalled he would postpone further military action against Iran to pursue negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. The retreat in energy prices eased Wall Street's inflation concerns.

Separately, Trump criticized Exxon and Chevron for "making too much money" amid high gasoline prices, calling on the companies to pass more savings to consumers — as low-income households continue spending over 10% of monthly income on fuel despite falling crude prices.

The U.S. Treasury and the Bank of Japan confirmed coordinated yen-buying intervention — an unusual step that included the U.S. selling euros to fund the purchases. USD/JPY strengthened to around 157, up from 40-year lows near 164, with officials signalling readiness for further action.

The Indian rupee strengthened in line with most Asian currencies, rising 4 paise to close at 95.35, supported by a decline in crude oil prices after U.S. President Donald Trump said fresh U.S.-Iran talks are set to begin on Monday. The domestic currency also benefited from sustained foreign inflows into both equity and debt markets. In addition, expectations that the Reserve Bank of India may reduce its net short forward position provided further support to the rupee.

Nifty extended its winning streak for a fourth consecutive session.

During the session, the index crossed key resistance levels of 24,530 and 24,601, confirming the continuation of the bullish trend.

Foreign investors are gradually paring back their short positions in derivatives while adding to their cash market holdings.

Nifty is poised to test the next target of 24,776, derived from its 200-day average. Immediate support has now moved higher to the 24,400–24,500 zone.

Nifty experienced a massive 200-point surge during the closing auction session (CAS), driven by around 1% or more movement across as many as 12 Nifty stocks, and that is likely to correct after opening today.

Markets to Cheer Middle East De-escalation

Global investors last week digested a hawkish Federal Reserve decision, escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, and a critical wave of Q2 earnings from Big Tech hyperscalers.

Concerns about the durability of large AI bets weighed on AI stocks due to high capital spending, financing needs, and growing competition. However, sentiment reversed in the latter half of the week after Microsoft’s Azure growth beat expectations and strong guidance, sparking a broad rebound in tech shares, though volatility persisted through the week’s end.

Trump said Iran sought a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end its nuclear threat, prompting him to cancel a planned strike ahead of Monday talks. Brent crude sank over 6% to $82.41 on the news, with broader risk sentiment lifted by hopes of a resolution.

Japan intervened in FX markets (yen-buying, dollar-selling) to halt the currency's slide to multi-decade lows, while the BOJ held rates but turned hawkish on inflation risks. This lifted short-dated JGB yields on rate-hike bets, and the yen later jumped on confirmed joint U.S.-Japan intervention, dragging exporter-led Japanese equities lower.

The Kospi fell as much as 5.5% as chipmakers sold off after Friday's record run and investors unwound leveraged bets. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each dropped about 9%.

The rupee and bonds this week will track the RBI's policy decision, with rates seen on hold and focus on inflation guidance amid Iran-driven energy risks. Bloomberg's deferral of India's bond-index inclusion — widely expected to go through — hurt sentiment and drove a third straight weekly yield rise

The Indian equity markets experienced a decisive bullish push during the week, closing above the psychologically important 24,000 mark, rebounding strongly from the previous week's consolidation. Encouraging management commentaries across large-cap IT, auto OEMs, and industrial manufacturing boosted investor sentiment.

Easing crude oil prices are providing a welcome cushion for India's trade balance and inflation outlook, while healthy progress of the southwest monsoon has further bolstered investor confidence.

July auto sales were broadly strong across categories. In passenger vehicles, Hyundai posted a record 75,360 units (domestic plus exports), Tata Motors' domestic PV sales rose 58% YoY to 62,611 units, Mahindra & Mahindra's total auto sales grew 26% to 1,03,860 vehicles including exports, and MG Motor India hit an all-time high of 8,158 wholesale units. Maruti Suzuki India Limited sold a total of 241,421 units. Domestic sales reached an all-time high of 200,123 units

Two-wheelers also gained: Hero MotoCorp's domestic dispatches rose 21.6% to 5,01,403 units, while Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India grew about 2% to 4,76,436 units.

The Royal Enfield maker posted monthly sales of 1,18,232 motorcycles in July 2026. The company witnessed 34% growth over the same period last year, against 88,045 motorcycles sold.

Indian indices are breaking out from near‑term resistance levels after several months of consolidation. Nifty index has closed above its 200 DEMA and swing-high resistance, reinforcing the near-term positive bias. Next resistance is seen at 24,530 (07 July swing high), followed by 24,778 (200-day SMA).

Midcap and Smallcap indices are in continuation of an uptrend.

On the downside, 23800 is the crucial support which can be utilised as a stop-loss in long positions.

Indian markets are set to open on a cheerful note on encouraging global cues.

Tech Stocks Roar Back on Microsoft's Historic Gain

U.S. stocks rebounded sharply, led by a rally in technology. The Nasdaq Composite led with a 2.8% gain, while the S&P 500 rose 1.7% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.2%.

Microsoft shares surged 16%, adding a record $450 billion in market capitalisation — the largest single-day gain in Wall Street history. The rally followed blowout earnings, with profit up 31%, easing investor concerns that AI infrastructure spending was outpacing cash generation. The optimism spread to other AI-cloud names: Nebius jumped 27%, CoreWeave 24%, and Oracle 7%, in a broad risk-on move.

Amazon also cheered investors after hours, reinforcing the narrative that AI infrastructure spending is starting to pay off. Meta Platforms was the exception, falling roughly 8% and extending its losing streak to 11 consecutive sessions, on soft revenue guidance and lingering doubts about the payback timeline on its capital expenditure.

U.S. GDP growth slowed more than expected in the second quarter, with inflation-adjusted output expanding at an annualised 1.5% as elevated oil and gasoline costs weighed on households and businesses. Consumer spending held up, rising 3.2%, and business investment stayed strong on continued AI-related spending. Weekly jobless claims rose to 197,000, up 9,000 from the prior week, adding to signs of a cooling labour market.

The Bank of England held its Bank Rate at 3.75% at its July meeting. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to hold, with the remaining three members favouring a 25-basis-point hike to 4%.

Asian markets rallied today on easing fears that the AI-linked selloff had further to run: South Korea's Kospi surged 14%, and Japan's Nikkei rose 4%. Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures pointed higher as well.

The yen spiked nearly 2.4% on suspected government intervention, pulling USD/JPY back from 40-year lows near 160 before it gave back some gains, trading around 160.5. The dollar weakened broadly — also pressured by trader scepticism over Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's recent inflation comments — pushing EUR/USD to a one-month high near $1.15 and USD/CAD to a six-week low near 1.40.

Nifty extended gains in yesterday's session by closing 66 points higher at 24,317.

From last Friday’s low of 23,606, the index has rallied 737 points and remains firmly above near-term averages, underscoring a strong uptrend. A sustained move above 24,368 could open the path toward the next resistance at 24,530, while the 24,040–24,140 band is expected to act as support on declines.

Indian markets are set to open on a positive note on encouraging global cues

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Dow's Worst Day in 15 Months: Mideast Tensions, Fed Hold Send Stocks Tumbling

US markets tumbled Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and amid a sharp escalation in the Middle East. The Dow fell over 1,150 points — its worst session in 15 months — while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lost 1.52% and 1.74%, respectively.

Iran fired ballistic missiles at US bases in Jordan, a US-Saudi coalition struck Iran-backed militias in Iraq, and an American-owned tanker docked in Egypt was set ablaze in a suspected drone attack. Oil surged on the news. The rally was reinforced by industry data showing a decline in US crude inventories, reviving inflation concerns just as the Fed's decision landed.

The FOMC voted 9–3 to hold its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75%, with the three dissenters favouring an immediate 25bp hike amid persistent inflation concerns. Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to its 2% inflation target — explicitly ruling out any higher "soft target" — but his reluctance to signal further tightening despite rising oil prices unsettled investors. Long-end Treasury yields jumped, with the 30-year touching its highest level since 2007.

In earnings, Microsoft rose as much as 8% after-hours on 43% Azure growth and $90 billion in quarterly revenue, with capex guidance held steady. Meta's revenue climbed 28% year-over-year to $60.8 billion, but a lacklustre forward outlook weighed on the stock despite its relatively attractive valuation.

In Asia, a steep sell-off in South Korean equities — driven by weak chip earnings and heavy retail selling in leveraged single-stock products — wiped out trillions of won in value in the last few sessions. Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol convened an emergency meeting, and the government moved to cap individual retail exposure to single-stock leveraged ETFs at 20% of financial assets while raising trading costs on those products. Korean markets surged on open today, though now rapidly giving back their gains.

The Indian rupee appreciated for the fourth straight session, gaining 20 paise to close at 95.65, supported by strong regional currencies, a softer dollar index and the sharp rise in domestic equities.

Nifty staged a strong comeback on the first day of the August series, surging 264 points to close at 24,250. A sustained move above this zone could open the door for further upside. On the lower side, immediate support has now shifted higher to the 24,000–24,050 band, and as long as Nifty holds above this area, the short-term bias is likely to remain positive.

Indian markets are set to open marginally lower today, tracking softer global cues as higher crude oil prices amid rising geopolitical uncertainty weigh on sentiment.

Cooling Crude, Easing Geopolitics to Lift Indian Markets

US markets declined for a second consecutive week — Nasdaq down 2.13%, S&P and Dow marginally lower — as Treasury yields surged ahead of the Fed meeting (10-year at a one-year high, 30-year briefly above 5.15%) and AI capex guidance drew scrutiny despite in-line tech earnings; semiconductors (SanDisk, Micron, Intel) lagged sharply.

Nifty and Sensex logged five straight losing sessions — the sharpest weekly drop in months — as Brent crude topped $100/bbl on Middle East tensions, the rupee weakened, FIIs stayed net sellers, and bank earnings disappointed; Nifty 50 closed down 2.33% at 23,767.45, Nifty Bank fell 3.12% to 56,693, with Realty (-4.02%) and Banks leading sectoral losses.

HSBC Flash India PMI showed private-sector activity expanding at its slowest pace in over four years in July, though manufacturing held up relatively well.

FIIs sold ~Rs 7,200 crore for the week on elevated US yields and valuation concerns, while DIIs cushioned the market with ~Rs 8,600 crore of buying; the rupee touched a near two-month low of ₹96.67/USD before settling around ₹96.50.

Crude oil retreated sharply (Brent oil futures Oct expiry is now trading near $88) from above the $100 level after the U.S. held off further strikes on Iran for a second consecutive night, deflating the geopolitical risk premium; reports of Chinese-brokered diplomacy between Washington and Tehran added to the pullback.

Markets will track the FOMC decision (Wednesday), Q2 GDP and June PCE data (Thursday), alongside global cues from crude oil, new US tariffs on major trading partners, and continued FII/DII flow dynamics in India.

The Nifty faces overhead resistance near the 24,000 level; a close above this could trigger further short covering, while a decisive slide below the immediate support of 23,600 may open the door to a larger downside in the near term.

Indian markets are poised to open sharply higher, buoyed by a retreat in crude oil prices amid a thaw in geopolitical hostilities.

Cooling Inflation and Bank Earnings Fuel Wall Street Rally

Major US stock indexes rose after June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a 0.4% monthly decline, bringing annual inflation down to 3.5%. The unexpectedly soft reading triggered a sharp shift in rate expectations, with the probability of a July Fed hike falling from 42% to 17%.

Headline CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month in June — the largest single-month decline in over six years — driven by a 9.7% plunge in gasoline prices following the temporary US-Iran ceasefire that reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Core CPI rose just 2.6% year-over-year, below the 2.9% estimate. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh nonetheless stopped short of signalling rate cuts, reaffirming the Fed's commitment to price stability.

Five of the largest US banks posted a combined 39% jump in quarterly earnings, powered by strong investment banking fees and equities trading revenue. Goldman Sachs led the rally, rising 9% to a new all-time high, while JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America also posted solid share-price gains on their results.

The Nasdaq advanced 0.9% as semiconductor stocks rebounded from the prior session's sell-off, with Micron Technology and Lam Research each gaining roughly 5%. The tech-heavy index nonetheless came under pressure from a historic drop in IBM shares after the company warned of weaker-than-expected software and infrastructure profits.

IBM shares fell sharply after a disappointing second quarter, with adjusted EPS of $2.93 against a $3.01 estimate and revenue of $17.2 billion versus $17.86 billion expected. The miss reignited concerns over near-term AI monetisation, rippling through the broader tech sector and acting as the single biggest drag on the Dow Jones.

CrowdStrike, Fortinet, and other cybersecurity names rose after IBM's results suggested enterprise customers are shifting spend away from legacy IT vendors — reinforcing the view that AI-driven security platforms are capturing budget dollars that traditional infrastructure players are losing.

SK Hynix surged 19% to $181.67 on Tuesday, as newly launched US single-stock leveraged ETFs tied to the Korean memory chipmaker drove a wave of retail buying. The rally lifted memory and storage names, including Micron, SanDisk, and Western Digital, even as South Korea's broader KOSPI index remains roughly 25% below its June peak amid concerns that the AI trade may be overextended.

Crude oil prices climbed back above $80 per barrel as the US and Iran exchanged renewed military strikes and Washington reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian shipping. Brent crude spiked as high as $86 a barrel — a one-month high — after Iran struck two UAE oil tankers and the US confirmed strikes on Iranian military targets. Gains were pared after President Trump abandoned a proposed 20% transit fee on cargo moving through the Strait of Hormuz, opting instead to pursue investment deals with Gulf states.

Asian market opened higher today, tracking gains in U.S. stocks on the back of a chip rally.

The Indian rupee underperformed its Asian peers, depreciating 58 paise to close at 96.20, its weakest level in a month. A surge in crude prices amid rising geopolitical tensions weighed heavily on the currency, while higher global bond yields could dampen expected inflows into the FCNR(B) scheme, adding further pressure.

India's retail inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 4.38% (provisional) in June 2026. This marked an acceleration from the 3.93% recorded in May 2026, largely driven by a spike in food prices and the effects of a weaker-than-normal monsoon.

Nifty snapped its three-session winning streak, declining 158 points to close at 24052 yesterday. The index remains in a consolidation phase. Looking ahead, the recent swing high near 24,260 is likely to act as near-term resistance, while support is placed around 23,800.

Indian markets are set to open on a flat to positive note amid encouraging global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Soft Jobs Data Fuels Markets Rally Ahead of Quarterly Earnings Season

US markets ended the week of July 3 with gains after a softer-than-expected US jobs print and cooler rate-hike expectations, led by cyclical and communication services while defensives underperformed.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed last week as investors priced in a slower Fed rate-hiking path after US jobs data, with stocks set for their best weekly performance since May.

Markets are recalibrating rate expectations after Fed funds futures indicated roughly even odds of a rate hike by September, though June's weaker-than-expected jobs report tempered immediate fears.

S&P 500 companies are collectively expected to report Q2 earnings growth of over 24%, with earnings season kicking off this week as a key catalyst for equities.

Indian equities ended the week of 3 July on a constructive note, with the Nifty 50 and Sensex both closing higher and benchmarks supported by softer crude, improved global cues, and a rebound in IT.

A key tailwind was the decline in crude oil prices, which eased inflation and import bill concerns for India. The other major support came from improving global risk appetite, expectations of a more accommodative US rate path, and a better tone around the India-Japan Summit.

The upcoming quarterly results season will be closely watched for signs of demand recovery, margin resilience, and management commentary on second-half growth.

Markets are likely to react more to guidance and earnings quality than to headline numbers.

In the near term, the bias remains positive as long as the Nifty holds above the 24,000 zone, with 24,400–24,600 likely to act as resistance if momentum continues.

Indian markets are set to open on muted note amid cautious global cues.