GUEST BIO

Ilan Berman is Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC), headquartered on Capitol Hill. A leading expert on Iran, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Russian foreign policy, he has consulted for the CIA, the State Department, and the Department of Defense. He is a Board member of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and the Middle East Broadcasting Networks, and has been called one of America’s “leading experts on the Middle East and Iran” by CNN. He is the author of Tehran Rising, among other books. X: @ilanberman | Website: ilanberman.com

KEY TOPICS

TIMESTAMPED TOPIC BREAKDOWN

00:28 — Narrator introduction

00:32 — Jenny Beth introduces today’s topic: Operation Epic Fury

01:02 — Ilan Berman’s background and expertise at AFPC

03:22 — Jenny Beth requests the full Iran briefing

03:42 — The 47-year history: Iran’s conflict with America begins

04:48 — The 1979 Islamic Revolution and Iran’s ideological transformation

05:58 — Iran’s expansionist ideology and its nuclear advancement

07:03 — Obama’s JCPOA: $150 billion in sanctions relief to the Ayatollahs

08:07 — JCPOA aftermath and Iran’s expanded proxy network

09:11 — Israel attacks the nuclear program; Operation Midnight Hammer

10:08 — Why we’re back: ballistic missiles and delivery systems unaddressed

11:14 — What Operation Epic Fury is designed to accomplish

12:01 — Evaluating the operation: military vs. political picture

13:14 — The military plan: systematic, methodical, coordinated with Israel

14:16 — Political ambiguity and the disinformation narrative online

15:07 — The four phases of Operation Epic Fury explained

16:17 — The political endgame: the signal for Iranians to rise up

17:11 — Economic and political clocks ticking on the administration

18:01 — White House signals: regime change or a deal with the rump regime

19:02 — Iran’s strategy: attacking 13 neighboring Arab countries

19:55 — Gulf allies leaning in: Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain

20:46 — What should America do to reassure Gulf partners?

23:44 — Why did Iran attack its neighbors? The strategic calculus

25:43 — The Iranian opposition: capability and will

26:08 — Potential Iran deal and what it means for the Iranian people

26:47 — America’s track record on regime change: hard lessons and humility

28:41 — The accelerating protest cycle and why America keeps forgetting to help

30:47 — The regime imported Iraqi and Yemeni militiamen to shoot protesters

31:59 — Targeting the tools of domestic repression: IRGC and Basij headquarters

33:04 — The White House 15-point negotiating plan and Iran’s response

33:34 — Voice of America and the information warfare crisis

34:11 — Radio Free Europe, Middle East Broadcasting Network, and radio vs. digital

36:50 — Why the U.S. information apparatus was dismantled after the Cold War

37:52 — Russia and China jamming Starlink inside Iran

38:50 — The information deficit: $850M U.S. vs. $10B China, $2.5B Russia

40:58 — The information war around the Iran narrative online

42:22 — Russia, China, and Iran: one axis or separate problem sets?

43:40 — Venezuela and Iran: Trump recognizes it’s one coordinated threat

44:40 — Ukraine, Russia, and what the Iran conflict signals to Beijing

45:04 — Ukraine’s fight as the opening front of Russian expansionism

46:07 — Zelensky’s outreach to Gulf countries and its message to Washington

48:16 — Russian drone technology transfer to Iran: more capable systems coming

49:13 — Taiwan: China’s military preparation for reunification

50:30 — American resolve in Iran being watched in Beijing

50:56 — Iran’s proxy network explained: Hezbollah, Hamas, and the IRGC

52:07 — Hezbollah in Lebanon: parliament seats, social services, and militia

53:10 — The contest for the soul of Lebanon

54:44 — The killing of Qasem Soleimani and its lasting impact on Iran’s proxies

55:24 — Iran’s transition from clerical regime to IRGC military dictatorship

56:26 — The new Supreme Leader and IRGC consolidating power

58:06 — What American citizens should do: the stakes and the information battle

01:00:18 — The danger of judging the conflict a failure too early

01:01:47 — Jenny Beth’s closing remarks and related episode reference

01:02:24 — Final invitation: subscribe, like, find the show on all platforms

01:02:51 — Narrator closing

LINKS

Show website: jennybethshow.com

TPPA: teapartypatriots.org

Guest website: afpc.org | ilanberman.com

Guest X: @ilanberman