OPIS Talks

OPIS TALKS COAL, METALS & MINING:

In this Tariff Talk episode of OPIS Talks, James Stevenson and Charles Dayton discuss why crude markets may be understating real geopolitical risk, with a focus on flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the vulnerability of the Bab el-Mandeb as an alternate outlet for Middle Eastern supply. They also examine what a weaker Japanese yen could mean for global debt markets and why current Treasury signals suggest borrowing costs may stay higher for longer than many market participants expect. For energy, metals and mining audiences, the conversation zeroes in on the macro and shipping risks that could shape fuel, freight and broader commodity markets in the weeks ahead.

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OPIS TALKS COAL, METALS & MINING:

In this Tariff Talk episode of OPIS Talks, James Stevenson and Charles Dayton examine the latest US-Iran memorandum of understanding and why any reopening of the Strait is unlikely to bring an immediate return to normal energy flows.

They discuss why the market may be underestimating the time, cost and logistical hurdles involved in restoring crude, LNG and refined-product movement, even after a ceasefire.

The conversation also looks at what tighter inventories and ongoing uncertainty could mean for diesel buyers and risk management, particularly for mining and industrial customers.

The episode closes with a look at newly announced Section 301 tariffs and why tariff uncertainty may be on firmer legal footing rather than fading away.

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OPIS TALKS REFINED FUEL:

The global shipping and freight landscape has undergone a chaotic transformation as an ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran completely scrambles global product flows. In the episode of OPIS Talks, the first of a limited series on refined spot products, Reagan Pritchard, OPIS lead editor for the U.S. Gulf Coast Distillates Market, joins Tom Sosnowski, associate director of global marine fuels for OPIS, to analyze this sudden disruption. They discuss how a three-month shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has trapped 1,600 vessels, forcing traffic around the Cape of Good Hope and sending freight rates to astronomical heights. They also evaluate logistical stopgaps, such as Saudi Arabia's Yanbu terminal, and detail how the Trump administration's Jones Act waivers enabled foreign-flagged ships to deliver critical fuel from the U.S. Gulf Coast to California. Finally, they examine the extensive 18-to-22-week timeline required to safely restore normal maritime transit.

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OPIS TALKS COAL, METALS & MINING:

In this latest Tariff Talk Charles and James focus — again — on Iran. We talk about how the situation might play out and why a deal is so hard to come by. We discuss risks stemming from the Iran situation, and particularly focus on diesel. We also talk about how some miners — notably those in Indonesia where James just visited — are reacting to the current situation.

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OPIS TALKS COAL, METALS & MINING:

Charles Dayton and James Stevenson discuss the ongoing war in the Middle East. They discuss likely timeframes for its duration, and what its commodity impacts are. We focus on impacts on LNG, and flow-through impacts on coal demand. And we close with some discussion of some of the larger Iranian strategies in the war, such as weakening the petrodollar.

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OPIS TALKS ENVIRONMENTAL COMMODITIES:

Humberto J. Rocha sits down with senior markets editor Henry Kronk to unpack CORSIA — the UN-backed scheme pushing airlines to limit growth in emissions through sustainable aviation fuel and carbon credit retirements. Henry walks us through the tightening supply of CORSIA-eligible credits, the process and politics of credit authorization under the Paris Agreement, and what a potential U.S. exit could mean for prices, compliance risk and competition in global aviation.

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OPIS TALKS ENVIRONMENTAL COMMODITIES:

Humberto J. Rocha sits down with Svenja Telle, CEO of Denominator, to explore the work involved in building the infrastructure behind credible carbon data. Svenja walks us through Denominator’s five-stage AI pipeline, how it's used in real-world deployments — from Middle East CCS to Latin American green ammonia — and why machine-verifiable carbon accounting is becoming essential for lenders, regulators and industrial producers. Tune in to learn more about Environmental Attribute Certificates (EACs), climate-tech financing barriers and why Svenja, who will be at CERA Week this month, sees Denominator as an infrastructure company first, and a climate tech company second.

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OPIS TALKS ENVIRONMENTAL COMMODITIES:

In this episode of OPIS Talks, host Humberto J. Rocha sits down with Guadalupe Ruiz, Principal Carbon Markets Analyst at Dow Jones, to unpack the dramatic shifts in European carbon markets over the past year.

Guadalupe breaks down the three major trends that shaped EU carbon allowance (EUA) prices in 2025: the evolving relationship between natural gas and carbon prices as renewables reshape the power sector, the impact of US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty on industrial demand, and the unprecedented surge in investment fund positioning that reached all-time highs this year.

As 2026 unfolds, the conversation turns to the sharp reversal in market sentiment, driven by profit-taking, geopolitical tensions, and speculation around potential policy changes. Guadalupe also explores the upcoming EU ETS review, what it could mean for supply and demand dynamics, and how the UK-EU carbon market linkage is influencing price correlations.

Whether you're tracking compliance obligations, investment strategies, or policy developments, this episode offers essential insights into the forces driving European carbon markets—and what to watch for in the months ahead.

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OPIS TALKS RENEWABLES: Jordan Godwin, Director of Renewable Fuels Pricing and News at OPIS, chat with Fred Ghatala, President of Advanced Biofuels Canada, to unpack the seismic shifts happening in Canadian biofuels policy. With the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act's 45Z tax credit threatening domestic production, Canada is responding with bold amendments to its Clean Fuel Regulations, including potential domestic content requirements and credit bonuses for Canadian producers.

Fred breaks down the delicate balance regulators face: protecting domestic producers while keeping fuel prices affordable, maintaining healthy credit markets, and ensuring long-term policy viability.

From surging CFR credit prices to provincial policy updates in British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan, this episode covers everything you need to know about where Canadian biofuels are headed.

Whether you're a producer, trader, or policy wonk, this conversation offers essential insights into how Canada is positioning itself for energy security, emissions reduction, and economic growth in the renewable fuels sector.

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OPIS TALKS COAL, METALS & MINING:

James Stevenson and Charles Dayton discuss the recent Supreme Court ruling that struck down Trump's tariffs under IEEPA, exploring alternative tariff mechanisms like Section 122 and Section 301. They examine concerning trends in US economic data, including substantial downward revisions to job creation numbers and questionable inflation calculations that may not reflect consumers' actual experience with rising prices.

The conversation also covers potential geopolitical risks, particularly around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, which could disrupt global oil and LNG flows. Throughout the discussion, they emphasize how these factors could influence Federal Reserve policy and global commodity markets, drawing from their research publication 'Tariff Talk' that covers macroeconomic issues affecting energy and commodity markets.

Have questions or feedback? Please drop us a line at [email protected].

Please help us spread the word by sharing OPIS Talks. Hit the share button, subscribe if you’re not already a regular listener, and give us a quick review in Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.