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  • Soybean Planting Season Opens Door for Option Writers
    Good afternoon. This is James Cordier of OptionSellers.com with a market update for May 5th. Coming into 2017, we were slightly over-weighted in precious metals, energies, and short coffee. Both seasonal factors and fundamental factors that we’ve been following, especially a slight weakening out of China, has caused these trades to go quite well for portfolios, so far, in the beginning of 2017. We have a bit of a rotation right now.
    As you look at your accounts and your positions that we send you once a month, you’re going to notice that our precious metal position has now dwindled because of a great decay on options that we were hoping for. Likewise in crude oil and in coffee. The rotation in May and June is going to be more of a short position in grains. Anyone who has followed seasonal factors that we talk about from time to time, the grain market usually rallies in May and June only to look at plentiful supplies in September and October.
    Argentina and Brazil are in the process of producing record amounts of soybeans and, here in the United States, we’re going to be doing the same. We recently rotated out of some of our positions that have done extremely well for us so far in 2017. Into a short position in soybeans, we think that there will be plentiful supplies come this fall and we think that the calls we’ve sold quite highly recently are going to do very well.
    Natural gas is another market that we’ve been rotating into. Natural gas, of course, the supplies are plentiful. The market right now is trading around $3.00-$3.50. Here in the United States, the Permian Basin is producing record amounts of natural gas each and every single month. They’re producing natural gas for about $0.90 per million BTUs. We are short that market from approximately $6.50. We think we rotated into the correct market.
    We hope to see good returns both in the second and third quarter of this year. We see very good opportunities that we’re into right now and expected to be in coming in the next 30-60 days. We hope to see nice profits and potential return from the positions we’re in going through the rest of the second and third quarter.
    Anyone wanting more information from OptionSellers.com can visit our website. If you’re not already a client and wish to become one, you can contact Rosemary at our headquarters in Tampa about becoming one. As always, it’s a pleasure speaking with you and looking forward to doing so again in 2 weeks. Thank you.
    4 min
  • End of US Planting Can Be Opportunity for Grain Option Writers
    Michael: Hello everyone. This is Michael Gross of OptionSellers.com here with head trader, James Cordier. This is your monthly Option Seller TV Show. James, welcome to the program this month.
    James: Always a pleasure, Michael. Glad to be here.
    Michael: We have a lot to talk about this month. We have turmoil in Washington, we have some activity coming back to the VIX, and we have OPEC announcements, so there’s some volatility coming back into a lot of the markets. We’re going to talk to James about how that might affect some of the commodities we’re looking at. James, what’s your take on the new burst of volatility we’ve seen?
    James: Well, Michael, there is a lot of uncertainty right now. The stock market continues to meander and make new highs practically once a week, it seems, to get a new sell-off, and then buyers come back into the market. The VIX, which has been in the news recently, under 10, which I believe is about a 2 or 3 decade low, basically is saying that there’s no fear amongst investors, continue to pile into the stock market and continue to buy. The volatility index is just starting to pick up, however, in commodities. We’ve seen a dramatic move up in basically the energies and some of the metal VIX indexes, and it tells us that there is some ideas that some large moves in either the stocks or in the dollar denominated commodities might be approaching soon. Of course, we like the VIX going up – that increases premiums on both puts and calls that we follow.
    Michael: Now, is that spilling over from equities or anything going on in Washington, or is that happening on its own accord for different fundamentals going on in the commodities?
    James: I think a lot of investors are taking the cue from what’s happening from Washington and abroad. We have North Korea, we have a situation with Russia and the election, we have things going on in the Middle East right now along with Washington D.C. and a lot of the proposed changes are meeting some stone walling right now that’s going on. It is causing a lot of uncertainty and, of course, that’s something we enjoy following. Some investors don’t care for that very much but it’s certainly something that we like to see happening and it pumps up premiums on commodity options.
    Michael: Well, with that background setting for the month, let’s move into our first market. We are going to talk about the grain markets this month. June is a big month in U.S. agricultural markets. This is typically the month where planting is completed in markets like corn, soybeans, to a lesser extent wheat, cotton, and those type of things. When you look at seasonal factors, the end of planting season can play a big role in that. James, maybe you want to talk a little bit about what that often means for certain grain prices?
    James: Michael, a lot of our viewers and listeners here today hear us talk about seasonal factors. Corn and soybeans, a lot of people don’t realize, are practically everything that’s consumed. Whether it’s in China, Europe, or here in the United States, it comes from a kernel of corn or from a soybean. Practically everything we eat, dining out or cooking at home, that’s what takes place. Corn and soybeans are an absolute essential to the food system for practically everyone on the planet. It’s a huge market. The corn and soybean market basically has some type of fear or anxiety going into planting season. The planting season has to be just right or a lot of investors feel that we’re going to have smaller yields and possibly a smaller crop. Generally, it’s either too wet or too dry or too hot in May or June, and that does bid up prices often. Generally speaking, at the end of that rally and once the corn and soybeans are planted in the United States, of course, prices then come back down to earth and, lo and behold, the U.S. farmers are some of the best in the world and sometimes a bumper crop. (4:18)
    Michael: Now, when we talk about a market like(continued)
    28 min
  • Coffee, Natural Gas Markets offer Seasonal Plays for Option Sellers
    Michael: Hello, everyone. This is Michael Gross, Director of Research here at OptionSellers.com. I’m here with Head Trader, James Cordier, with your monthly Option Sellers Audio/Video Podcast. James, welcome to the show.
    James: Thank you, Michael. As always, it’s a pleasure.
    Michael: we are going to talk a little bit about what’s going on in the world right now and we are going to get into some of our key markets for this month. James, obviously anybody watching the news this month has had quite a bit to look at. We have North Korean missile test, we have Russian bombers flying over the Alaskan Coast, so there’s a lot of geo-political things going on in the world right now. It’s bringing a lot of instability into a lot of people’s thoughts about what may be going on over the next several months in the markets. The VIX and the S&P is up 24% in one week here in April as a result of a lot of this. So, just overall, what’s your take on the month of April as far as the markets go?
    James: It’s interesting, Michael. Over the last 6-8 years we’ve had very little of the news that we’re looking at recently. There’s a lot of muscle flexing going on by both Russia and the United States, and maybe China coming up soon. It does have Wall Street a little bit jittery. As you said, the VIX is up some 24% recently and, actually, I think the VIX was testing multi-year lows. So, it always seems that something comes down the pipe to give everyone jitters and I saw the stock markets sold off here recently on some of the concerns going on around the Middle East and throughout Syria and North Korea. I think that’s a necessity to keep traders on their toes and to make sure the stock market and other markets aren’t always on a one-way street. A lot of the traders like the hustle and bustle of the markets going up and down and I guess we do, too.
    Michael: Well, we’ll see what happens. I know there’s been a lot of articles as of late. Ron Insana of CNBC, they recently had an article on their website talking about the two things that most often start bear markets and one of them was rising interest rates and the other one was the onset of war. So, let’s hope we don’t have anything like that, but something to keep in mind as you’re planning your stock portfolio or stock option portfolio for the spring and summer months here. Over on this side, we’re going to get into some of the commodities that we feel may be offering some opportunity this month. First on our list is we’re going to talk about the natural gas market. Obviously energy markets is some of the most seasonal markets in commodities. Natural gas, during the month of May, can be a very seasonal commodity. James, you want to give your take on that right now and what you see happening there?
    James: Michael, thank you. It’s very interesting throughout the year of the 12 commodities we follow. There will be certain times, sometimes the 1st quarter and sometimes the 2nd quarter of the year, that a certain commodity has the propensity to go up or down based on seasonality. Natural gas is certainly one of those. Generally, natural gas prices will rally during the months of March, April, and May, and then we start building supplies for summer cooling needs. What a lot of people are not familiar with is the fact that to cool vs. to hear requires only 10% of the natural gas that it does during the winter months. So, quite often, natural gas has a rally going into spring and summer thinking, “Well, it might be a hot summer” and it turns out that natural gas usage to cool homes and businesses in the winter is like 10% of what it takes to heat homes and businesses in the winter. Subsequently, the rallies in spring and summer do falter. Supplies of natural gas coincide this year with the seasonality of the market falling. We’re approximately 16% here in the United States over the 5-year average. What’s so interesting right now, Michael, is areas like the Permian Basin, which has new dr(continued)
    23 min
  • Pad Your Portfolio this month with BIG Premiums in Gold and Energy Markets
    Michael: Hello everybody. This is Michael Gross of OptionSellers.com. I’m here with head trader James Cordier of OptionSellers.com with your February Option Seller Radio Show. James, welcome to the show this month.
    James: Thank you, Michael. As always, enjoy doing these and brining more and more information and educating investors out there to what we do.
    Michael: Excellent. We’re going to start off this month, to all of you listening, we’re going to answer some common questions we get through the blog or online. One of the most common questions people ask us is “I really like your stuff. Is there a way I can sign up for your course? Do you offer seminars I can attend? If I pay you, can you coach me how to do this?” … or various forms of that question. We get so many of those and we wanted to answer that question today and maybe shed some light on that for you as a listener. James, do you want to go ahead and maybe take a stab at answering that?
    James: You know, what’s interesting, Michael, we definitely enjoy getting feedback from everyone listening to this podcast each month. Please continue asking questions and any feedback is always accepted and we enjoy receiving that. Primarily, we don’t mind and enjoy educating the public. So often, investors are looking for alternative ways to take care of their nest egg or try and build the one that they’re trying to create. Basically, there’s a few investments out there. There’s being long in the stock market, there’s buying real estate, and as long as both of those are going up I think they’re very sound, great investments. But for people looking out 5, 10, and 15 years to expect everything to keep rallying indefinitely certainly is not the way. Educating yourself as to how to help manage your own portfolio, I think, is a great idea. We continue to give information and help teach people how to sell options and take in premium and, hopefully, make really good returns each year whether we’re in a bull or bear market. However, the majority of our clients and the most of the work that we enjoy doing is taking and investing with high-net-worth capitalized investors. That is our niche. That is what we do. The fact that we are a relatively small company and we don’t have thousands of clients, we’re able to be more nimble getting in and out of the market for some of these high-net-worth investors. As far as anyone wanting to follow along with what we do, educate themselves to selling options and taking in premium as we do, we’re going to continue educating people and allow them to do that on their own, if they wish. For the investors who are more apt to hire a manager to do it, certainly, that is our bread and butter and that’s what we’re doing here.
    Michael: It’s a good point, James. To shorten what James said a little bit and maybe sum it up a little bit is yeah, we do appreciate those offers and we do appreciate your questions, but we’re not in the education business here. We are money managers. That is the service we provide. We do provide a lot of educational material to anyone, the general public. We like to make it as high quality as we can. I think some of the things you’ll find on our website or that we send out to prospective investors is comparable to what you might pay thousands for in a course somewhere. That is something we provide for free. We enjoy that, we enjoy brining that message to the public and helping people understand this investment, because there really isn’t a lot of information out there on selling options in general but, especially, selling options in commodities. We’re simply out to help people understand that better and get more people involved in this because it can be a great investment if you understand how to do it. James, let’s move on a little into our main discussion here this month. We’re going to address what’s going on in the stock market because all investor’s eyes are on stocks now. They’ve been soaring. Some people are call(continued)
    35 min
  • April Opportunities Crude Oil, Cotton Market for Option Sellers
    Michael: Hello everyone. Welcome to the April edition of the OptionSellers.com Podcast. This podcast will be both video and audio podcast. This is our first video podcast. James, welcome to the podcast.
    James: Thank you, Michael. Very excited about doing both video and audio – get our mugs out there!
    Michael: I think first on the agenda this month is what we have going on in the stock market right now. Is this going to be the long awaited correction everybody’s been awaiting or is this just a little blip? What do you think?
    James: It’s interesting, Michael, the stock market has just been on a historic tear here ever since the election – and with good reason. If we have deregulation and we have a lot of pro-business ideas coming out of Washington along with a U.S. economy that’s doing fairly well right now, a lot of investors have been pouring into the stock market. We had the first shot across the bow, of course, with the healthcare issue being quite a bit of a swing and a miss for Mr. Trump this past week. A lot of investors right now are thinking, “Well, if we can’t get that passed maybe the deregulation and lower taxes and interest rate help may not be as much of a slam dunk as a lot of investors thought.” This could finally be the catalyst for the long-awaited 5-10% correction in the stock market. Everyone was absolutely factoring in the best-case scenario. Now, Washington D.C. quite isn’t as put together as people thought. The whole idea of a strong U.S. economy along with a very business-friendly administration, some of that’s being taken off the table right now. I wouldn’t be surprised that a lot of investors do take some chips off the table. Some of the largest investors in the world right now have thought about that and Goldman Sachs and large banks like that are talking about making their position smaller. That tells me maybe the long awaited correction probably in the 2nd quarter this year might not be such a big surprise after all.
    Michael: Yeah, I’ve noticed a lot of the news channels are still bullish, they’re still cheering it on, but you can’t underestimate that public sentiment. If it starts to go, everybody’s pricing in this big economic boom. If that doesn’t happen, you can’t underestimate what that can do to prices, as we’ve seen in commodities, as well.
    James: Absolutely. We start getting just a little more selling than buying. We keep buying the dips, buying the dips, buying the dips, and one of these times we’re going to cross a certain moving average that’s going to cause the computer to do some selling. Then all of a sudden, everyone’s racing for the door. The stock market’s not going to collapse. We’re not going to have an epic fall of 20-30%, but this long awaited correction that gets people to re-think their investment, that’s overdue. I think we could see that happen in maybe April or May.
    Michael: All right, well, lets talk about some ways people can get diversified, obviously what we specialize in. This month we’re going to talk about the cotton market. Some things are starting to take place there. It’s been on a pretty good bull market here for the last year or so. We’ve had lower supplies and cotton has just been gradually trending up. You and I have been talking about this over the last several weeks about we could be seeing a shift here, we think there’s some opportunities for selling premium. Talk a little bit about it. What do you see happening here?
    James: Generally, the ten commodities that we follow will have a spurt of buying from an importing nation and then will have a spurt of selling from producers that have an abundance of whatever the commodity is. What’s happened this past 12 months is we’ve seen Chinese imports have gone up dramatically over the 5-year average. That, of course, rallies the market. Cotton right now is at practically a 1-2 year highs. What’s so interesting, Michael, is that a lot of investors will hear that the Chinese consumptio(continued)
    27 min
  • Seasonal Plays at Forefront in for January Option Sellers
    Good afternoon, this is James Cordier of OptionSellers.com with a market update for January 13th. Well, welcome to 2017. This January, and most January’s in the past, has kicked off investing by normally looking at some of the most favorable seasonal positions that we get coming down the pipe the entire year.
    This January, we have three of our most favorite seasonal trades coming up. One is going short wheat. The USDA this past week noted that world-ending stocks for wheat are at all-time highs, making a large rally going against some of our short call positions seem quite unlikely. Coffee supplies in New York are at 10-year highs, making a 60-70% rally against those fundamentals very unlikely, so we will be selling calls in coffee in the coming 30 days.
    One of the positions that should work very well the next 3-4 months is long soybeans. The seasonality of soybeans to start rallying at the end of January until April and May seem quite high. This year, right now with the protein demands, especially out of Asia, we think that protein consumption is going to be extremely high and the demand for soybeans and soybean meal will be extremely high, as well. These three seasonal trades will wind up in your account in the coming week or two and, we think, will go a long way in diversifying accounts for 2017.
    We’re expecting an exceptionally good year starting January and hopefully working all the way through December. We’re looking at having a very balanced portfolio utilizing a lot more than eight commodities that we often follow; however, in 2016 we just didn’t have the opportunities, so we were in mostly precious metals and in energy, as all of our clients know.
    In 2017, we’re looking at utilizing practically all the eight commodities that we follow and these three new ones will be going a long way to diversifying your accounts to do just that. We’re looking for a much straighter equity curve this year and, hopefully, December 31st having a very nice return at year’s end. Anyone wanting more information from OptionSellers.com can visit our website. If you’re not already a client of ours you can contact our headquarters and speak to Rosemary about becoming one. As always, it’s great chatting with you and looking forward to doing so again in two weeks. Thank you.
    4 min
  • Balanced Crude Oil Market is Cash Flow Opportunity for Option Sellers
    Good afternoon. This is James Cordier of OptionSellers.com with a market update for February 3rd. Well, with the new Trump Administration finally settling in, and the tweets keep coming, a lot of market participants continue to try and evaluate what exactly that means for both the U.S. economy, the global economy, especially with talks of terrorists and such, and what that could possibly mean to economic growth going forward. Is it going to be a little bit too much or is he going to fine-tune it just right?
    I know the stock market is certainly making very interesting moves recently. We went to all-time highs since the new Trump presidency, and now we’ve backed off slightly as some of the indications are that maybe every proposal and every idea may not be business friendly. Fortunately, for us, January and February are the 2 months when we are normally trading seasonalities in the commodities that we follow.
    The propensity for a particular commodity to go up or down is what a seasonal is defined as. During the month of January and February is when we find the majority of them for the entire year. It matters very little what is happening in Washington or in Wall Street. Some of the seasonalities that we enjoy following in the very beginning of the year is the wheat market usually starts to fall in price just slightly. We’ve seen that start to happen in the last week or so.
    The price of soybeans, also a grain or oil seed if you will, normally rallies starting in January going into February and March, and that has begun as well. Of course, one of our fan favorites is coffee. The coffee market normally tops in price at the end of January as peak demand season ends and we start talking about large supplies coming in from Columbia, Vietnam, and Brazil, something we’re expecting in great amounts this year. February and March the coffee market starts to fall and we’ve noticed that happening already.
    Generally speaking, you can’t just simply look at the calendar and invest in commodities. Certainly, there’s a lot of aspects that are involved in trading commodities along with the seasonality. For example, one of the commodities that we talked about late last year was going long in the crude oil market. Crude oil is normally just the depth of despair as we go into winter season when demand is at its least and supplies are at their most. Then, it normally starts crawling out of a bear market starting in January and February.
    2017 is completely different. The producers in the world, of course, announced production cuts for the first time in over a decade. The $15-$20 rally basically took place over night. We now have what we think is a balanced market. A lot of participants out of the largest OPEC producing nations are talking about a balanced market, as well. What’s so interesting is people think that’s bullish, and a balanced market means exactly that. We have the exact amount of barrels needed to produce for production and consumption. As long as we have a balanced market, the market basically goes sideways. Crude oil, trading around $55 for later on this year, is exactly the middle of our strangle that we placed on about a month ago. If we have a balanced market, why would crude oil rally 40% in the coming months? If we have a balanced market, why would crude oil fall 40% in the coming months? We don’t see it happening and that is what our favorite strangle is right now.
    Seasonally, we’re going to be buying crude oil in December and January, selling it in June and July. Seasonal factors did not kick in this year. We think that the crude oil market trading in the mid 50’s is fairly valued and we expect it to trade near that level. When we are identifying prices that are too low we sell puts, identifying markets that are too high we sell calls. The most lucrative trade of all is identifying fair value markets and then you put a strangle around it and collecting premium from both the put and call side is (continued)
    6 min
  • "Goldilocks" Scenario Sets up 2017 Gold Option Sales
    Good afternoon. This is James Cordier of OptionSellers.com with a market update for February 17th. From time to time in these updates I would like to talk about our current positions as well as any future opportunities we see coming down the pike. Today will be one of those days. What’s so interesting right now is a bit of a Goldilocks environment that’s starting to take shape. The U.S. economy is starting to lift up. The stock market, of course, is causing and creating a lot of aphoria right now for the U.S. economy over 2017 and beyond.
    Of course, the stock market seems to make, once again, new highs practically every day with the idea of different types of stimulus; in other words, interest rates remaining low even though we’re looking at probably two rate hikes this year. The stock market, going up like it is, is leading a lot of investors and analysts to think that some of the Trump Administration ideas as far as lowering taxes and such is going to be good for the economy, and likely it will be.
    The Goldilocks part of this is we do have a strengthening economy. We do have a lot of optimism right now about the stock market. At the same time, that is creating just a little bit of inflation, which will likely be tapped down by higher dollar values as the U.S. is probably the strongest economy of the 4-5 counties that we follow. Of course, India and China supposedly have a stronger GDP than the United States, but that remains to really be examined closely; however, as far as against the Japanese Yen, against the Chinese Yuan, against the Euro currency, the U.S. dollar is probably going to continue to be the strongest throughout 2017.
    This Goldilocks environment that we’re referring to is probably making it slightly easier to look and forecast a 3rd quarter and 4th quarter price for precious metals. Of course, we are having an average short weighted price of $1,800 on the call side, where we’re short gold and we’re also long gold by selling puts at the $900-$950 level. This Goldilocks environment now is giving us ideas to project a year-end price throughout the end of the 3rd quarter and the beginning of the 4th quarter of approximately $1,300 an ounce, probably $50-$75 higher than where we are right now. This Goldilocks environment, in our opinion, is going to make the $1,800 calls that we’re short and the $950 puts that we’re also short a great opportunity.
    We do see as the 3rd quarter later on this year does approach, we expect a lot of the options that we’ve recently sold over the last few months to probably reach just 10 or 20% of their current value. Possibly a very good time to buy them back or, in fact, if gold is trading around $1,275-$1,300 possibly just letting them decay very close to zero. It’s very interesting- if we have October gold options on, they expire in September. Chances are in July or August they will have lost a lot of their value. The December contracts that we are short, of course, they expire in November, and we would expect that in September and October. A lot of the premium will be out of them by that time, as well.
    A $1,300 guesstimate for gold would put it probably some 50-60% below some of the calls that we are short and some 30-40% above some of the puts that we are short… kind of a sweet spot for year’s end. Of course, in silver we are short from approximately $30 and we are long from approximately $11. We could see silver probably creeping up towards $20 an ounce later this year. Very favorable environment for our strangles in both of our precious metals.
    Going forward, we’re looking at several seasonals that we’ve applied recently. Our favorite one that’s coming up right now is being long natural gas. Generally speaking, supplies are at their least after the winter season and then they need to be built up going into spring and summer cooling season. We really like the idea of going long natural gas during the months of February and March and expecting pric(continued)
    7 min
  • The First 60 Days of 2017 – Target High Yields with these Top Seasonal Option Sales
    Michael: Hello, everybody. Welcome to the January 2017 edition of the Option Seller Radio Show. This is Michael Gross of OptionSellers.com here with head trader, James Cordier, of OptionSellers.com. We’re starting off a new year here in the week of the Presidential Inauguration. James, it appears markets may be treading water here, kind of waiting to see how things play out after the Inauguration. What are your thoughts on the markets here as we start the new year?
    James: Well, Michael, welcome to 2017, as well. Really excited about the next 12 months, and we’ll see what the markets offer us as far as opportunities and looking at landscape as we go forward. The stock market certainly got a shot in the arm after the election, thinking that a Trump presidency is going to be very business friendly. The stock market certainly enjoyed that; however, over the last 3-4 weeks it is simply treading water going sideways, waiting for another idea. As far as “Will this actually help the economy? Will some of the Trump policies that are being tossed around actually be and do what we are hoping for the economy?”, the stock market is kind of going sideways waiting for a little bit more information. I think you’re right – right after the Inauguration I think people are going to get either the warm and fuzzies of the new president or possibly a little bit of a caution and then the stock market has some profit taking. The one thing that’s interesting right now is the put-call ration is the most bullish it has been in the stock market in years. Usually, that’s a bit of a caution flag for the market to have a correction. I guess we’ll find out in the next few weeks.
    Michael: Yeah, I saw Soros is one of the guys that took a beating on betting against the stock market with the Trump election. The big shooters aren’t always right. Of course, us here, we don’t trade the stock market but we do watch it closely, primarily because: one, a lot of our investors are in it and, two, because it can have an overall impact on a lot of other things going on in other markets. So, not a direct impact, but it’s something that we do keep an eye on. What we’re going to talk about here this month is obviously diversifying into commodities and we’re going to talk about a big advantage you have as a commodities investor. That big advantage is seasonal tendencies and commodities. January offers a plethora of seasonal tendencies that we can watch and take advantage of, and that’s what we’re going to talk about this month. James, why don’t we start out with some of our listeners that may not be familiar with seasonals. We do talk about them a lot, but maybe just start off by explaining exactly what a seasonal tendency is in a commodities market.
    James: Michael, that’s a really good point that you make about seasonals that do come up this time of year. For currency traders, they don’t know what a seasonality is. Trading silver, you probably don’t know what a seasonal is; however, trading corn and coffee and heating oil and crude oil is simply a propensity for a market to make a particular move during a particular time of the year based on supply and demand. New production that comes online certain times of the year, some of the biggest demand, certainly, for certain markets, comes at a particular time of the year. For example, heating oil and crude oil often starts getting large demand in the winter for heating oil and driving season for crude oil. The coffee market certainly gets a bump usually in December and January as demand for coffee, especially in the western hemisphere, does increase as temperatures cool. The propensity for the market to fall off starting March, April, and May, when temperatures in the United States and western Europe start to warm, people simply drink less coffee. That’s basically the ABC’s of seasonal trading. It seems incredibly simplistic but if you followed, and certainly we follow, the price of unleaded gasoline going in(continued)
    26 min
  • Historic Volatility Sets the Table for 2017 Option Writers
    Good afternoon. This is James Cordier of OptionSellers.com with a market update for December 22nd and a look into the upcoming New Year. Over the last ten years, I’ve probably spoken to hundreds of new clients and one of the questions I would always receive is, “How are we able to sell options in commodities fifty and sixty and seventy percent out of the money when I can only sell stock options only five percent out of the money. The answer to that question is, “historic volatility in commodities.”
    2016 will probably go into the record books as one of those years that has injected more historic volatility into the commodities markets more than probably any year that I can recall. We start with interest rates, then the Brexit. Then, a very surprising election outcome here in the United States. And last but not least is OPEC and non-OPEC nations in the world cutting production of oil for the first time in practically a decade. I would not call all these events this past year black swans, but the great majority of them were at least grey swans. Trading in an environment like that make it quite challenging.
    However, this is an absolute key ingredient in having historic volatility pumped back into both puts and calls in commodities across the board – a challenging environment for sure while it is happening. However, in the coming years the absolute luxury of, once again, having historic volatility put into option premium on both sides of the market in probably seven or eight markets that we follow. The credit spread, something that we are going to be inviting into our accounts in 2017, is going to be our mainstay as far as positioning in the markets.
    If you read chapter ten in our latest version of The Complete Guide to Option Selling, it describes the credit ration spread in great detail. The volubility of selling options far out of the money with great premium allows us to have protection at the same time as selling extremely expensive options. This is something that we are going to notice taking advantage of in the coming six to twelve months. And, possibly because of the volatility going into commodity markets this past year, and possibly being able to do this for the next few years. Not only does the credit spread offer great ability to sell options far out of the money, but it also straightens out the equity curve on accounts – something that we’re very interested in doing.
    We look forward to doing this in 2017. We are hopefully going to be hopefully involved in seven or eight markets this coming year, and using the ration credit spread is going to allow us to have protection on practically every position we take. And at the same time, straighten out the equity curve – something we are interested in doing. We are still trying to get that formula of going from zero on January 1 and a very good return on December 31. This should do a very good job of it over the next three to four years. We shall wait and see. I personally want to wish everyone Happy Holidays and a Happy New Year. As always, it’s a pleasure speaking with you. Looking forward to doing so again in 2 weeks. Thank you.
    5 min

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