A 30-year-old speech on trade resurfaces — and it could’ve been delivered yesterday. Co-hosts Joseph Gradante, AJ Giannone, and Tyler Goering react in real time to a vintage clip of Nancy Pelosi criticizing US-China trade relations and unpack how little has changed. We explore the persistent economic asymmetry between China and the United States, from trade deficits to technology transfers. We also break down Trump’s trade strategy, why it may be the right medicine at the right time, and how sudden macroeconomic policy shifts ripple through the markets, even as we are recording.

Key Takeaways:

(01:27) Nancy Pelosi’s 1990s stance on China’s MFN status feels eerily relevant today.

(07:10) Trump’s trade policy mirrors Pelosi’s old position, suggesting bipartisan concern.

(08:32) The parties have flipped roles in trade policy, but billionaires always win.

(15:20) America’s consumer base remains its biggest bargaining chip.

(17:21) The political class benefits while the people fight each other.

(20:43) Policy — not ideology — is the path to equitable economic outcomes.

(24:00) Staying invested is key; pulling out during volatility means missing rallies.

(25:52) Smart investing means buying low, not chasing highs.

Resources Mentioned:

Joseph Gradante

https://www.linkedin.com/in/yoda-josephgradante/

AJ Giannone

https://www.linkedin.com/in/agiannone-cfa/

Tyler Goering

https://www.linkedin.com/in/tyler-goering-cfa/

Nancy Pelosi Speech on China Trade

https://usinfo.org/wf-archive/2000/000217/epf406.htm

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As America stands at an economic crossroads, we explore whether a new industrial renaissance is within reach. Co-hosts Joseph Gradante, AJ Giannone and Tyler Goering break down the economic forces shaping America’s future, the strategic shift in investor behavior and the potential turning point in market valuations. From JD Vance’s rallying cry to repatriate innovation, to an urgent critique of globalization’s impact on the middle class, we explore what a sustainable economic revival could look like — and how Allio fits into the bigger picture.

Key Takeaways:

(01:19) JD Vance’s belief that cheap labor undermines innovation and national prosperity.

(04:55) America’s mid-20th-century strength stemmed from domestic production and tariffs.

(09:56) Explaining how short-term profit motives eroded long-term economic stability.

(13:30) Unions once helped ensure prosperity was shared fairly.

(21:45) DOGE is often misunderstood but plays a serious role in economic policy.

(26:02) Progressive taxation has a role in upholding basic rights and stability.

(27:48) Breaking down where valuations look attractive amid uncertainty.

(30:32) Now may be the time for buying into high-growth companies again.

Resources Mentioned:

Joseph Gradante

https://www.linkedin.com/in/yoda-josephgradante/

AJ Giannone

https://www.linkedin.com/in/agiannone-cfa/

Tyler Goering

https://www.linkedin.com/in/tyler-goering-cfa/

Ray Dalio – Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order

https://www.amazon.com/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed/dp/1982160276

Tesla

https://www.tesla.com/

Nvidia

https://www.nvidia.com/

Apple

https://www.apple.com/

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#Macroeconomics #PersonalFinance #InvestmentResearch

From market corrections to tariff rollouts, recent developments are reshaping Americans’ view of the economy and their financial future. But what does it really mean for investors, businesses, and everyday citizens? 



Co-hosts Joseph Gradante, AJ Giannone and Tyler Goering unpack Scott Bessent’s recent interview and explore the broader implications of current economic policy, market movements and political dynamics. They reflect on the forces reshaping America’s economy and what needs to change for Main Street to thrive.

Key Takeaways:

(03:23) Scott Bessent echoes Warren Buffett’s message on short-term fear versus long-term fundamentals.

(10:02) Massive government spending can be as risky as market corrections if left unchecked.

(17:47) Tariffs get the spotlight, but energy independence and deregulation drive real disinflation.

(21:04) Innovation thrives when risk-taking is rewarded and capital is accessible.

(28:49) The VIX shows early signs of market stabilization.

(31:50) Returns across asset classes are now more evenly balanced.

(35:13) Mild economic cooling could reopen opportunities for risk-taking.

(36:40) Falling energy costs, deregulation and potential rate cuts signal a positive economic outlook.

Resources Mentioned:

Joseph Gradante

https://www.linkedin.com/in/yoda-josephgradante/

AJ Giannone

https://www.linkedin.com/in/agiannone-cfa/

Tyler Goering

https://www.linkedin.com/in/tyler-goering-cfa/

Scott Bessent

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Bessent

J.P. Morgan

https://www.jpmorgan.com/

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#Macroeconomics #PersonalFinance #InvestmentResearch

Market uncertainty and portfolio optimization take center stage in this discussion with Adam Damko, Chief Data Scientist at Allio Capital. With over a decade of experience applying machine learning in finance, Adam has worked on everything from spread forecasting to recession prediction in the fixed-income space. He is also the creator of Allio’s ALTITUDE AI, a systematic investment framework designed to optimize portfolios in real-time.



In this conversation with AJ Giannone and Joseph Gradante, Adam explains how predictive AI and macro investing intersect, why traditional portfolio models fall short, and what investors should focus on in a shifting economic landscape.

Key Takeaways:

(05:31) Parallels exist between the Reagan and Biden eras, but real economic change takes time.

(10:08) Government inflation metrics lag — Trueflation shows a sharper decline.

(13:29) The Magnificent Seven’s dominance is fading — diversification is key.

(18:06) Market uncertainty normalizes over time — adjusting strategies is crucial.

(20:32) Growth is coming but the administration remains cautious.

(22:50) Adaptive AI-driven portfolios offer better diversification and stability.

(25:51) Portfolio optimization is misunderstood — ignoring risk leaves value on the table.

(29:22) Sector positioning outweighs fundamentals in today’s market.

Resources Mentioned:

Adam Damko

https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-damko-cfa/

AJ Giannone

https://www.linkedin.com/in/agiannone-cfa/

Joseph Gradante

https://www.linkedin.com/in/yoda-josephgradante/

Truflation Index

https://truflation.com/marketplace/us-inflation-rate

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#Macroeconomics #PersonalFinance #InvestmentResearch

Government efficiency, fiscal reform and market volatility are the focus of today’s economic discussions. 

Co-hosts Joseph Gradante, AJ Giannone, and Tyler Goering analyze the latest policy shifts, including the potential of a US sovereign wealth fund, the DOGE dividend and the role of tariffs in global trade.

They discuss whether fiscal responsibility can drive long-term economic growth, how tax and trade policies affect markets and why gold and hard assets are gaining traction.

Key Takeaways:

(02:06) Would people notice if the federal government disappeared?

(09:00) Where taxpayer money really goes and why cutting waste matters.

(10:30) The DOGE dividend — helpful or inflationary?

(12:54) Why a US sovereign wealth fund could be a game-changer.

(15:47) Tariffs as a tool for fair trade.

(19:49) Sovereign wealth funds as an economic defense.

(26:38) Market volatility is rising — gold and hard assets gain appeal.

(29:22) 50% of US spending comes from the top 10% — what if they pull back?

Resources Mentioned:

Joseph Gradante -

https://www.linkedin.com/in/yoda-josephgradante/

AJ Giannone -

https://www.linkedin.com/in/agiannone-cfa/

Tyler Goering -

https://www.linkedin.com/in/tyler-goering-cfa/

US Sovereign Wealth Funds -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_wealth_fund

DOGE Dividend Proposal -

https://nypost.com/2025/02/27/us-news/proposed-doge-dividend-could-become-law/

Tariff Policy -

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11030

Market Volatility -

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/volatility.asp

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#Macroeconomics #PersonalFinance #InvestmentResearch

Tariffs, economic policy and market reactions continue to dominate discussions, shaping both short-term volatility and long-term investment strategies. Understanding the broader implications of these policies is essential to making informed decisions. Co-hosts Joseph Gradante, AJ Giannone, and Tyler Goering break down the current landscape, discussing the impact of tariffs, the importance of historical context in economic cycles, and what investors should focus on amid market noise.

Key Takeaways:

(01:13) Tariffs spark debate, but the broader economic impact depends on long-term trade negotiations.

(03:02) Market fluctuations often overreact to policy shifts — fundamentals matter more.

(09:00) Short-term market noise creates opportunities for those who take a long-term perspective.

(09:29) Economic cycles repeat — understanding history provides an advantage in navigating uncertainty.

(12:31) Rising interest rates will make debt refinancing more challenging for the economy.

(14:32) Long-term investing is about building sustainable wealth to secure financial stability for future generations.

(14:57) The growing US fiscal deficit is a risk that needs urgent policy attention.

(18:08) Sustainable economic growth requires balancing deregulation, fiscal discipline and investment.

Resources Mentioned:

Joseph Gradante -

https://www.linkedin.com/in/yoda-josephgradante/

AJ Giannone -

https://www.linkedin.com/in/agiannone-cfa/

Tyler Goering -

https://www.linkedin.com/in/tyler-goering-cfa/

Federated Hermes -

https://www.federatedhermes.com/us/home.do

NVIDIA -

https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/

US Treasury Market -

https://www.sifma.org/explore-issues/treasury-market-structure/

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#Macroeconomics #PersonalFinance #InvestmentResearch

The US is at a turning point. As the new administration takes shape, policies on energy, trade and national security are already in motion. But what does this mean for investors and the global economy?

Co-hosts Joseph Gradante, AJ Giannone and Tyler Goering break down Trump’s inauguration speech, the policy shifts that followed and their implications for markets. From China’s long game to the future of US energy independence, the team unpacks how these macro forces are reshaping investment strategies.

With volatility on the rise and fiscal policy uncertain, staying ahead of these trends is more critical than ever.

Key Takeaways:

(01:17) Trump’s inauguration speech set the tone for bold economic shifts.

(03:29) Why linking rhetoric to action is key to credibility.

(04:44) Energy independence could give the US a major advantage.

(06:29) The role of external conflict in uniting a divided nation.

(08:00) How China leveraged globalization to gain economic power.

(11:44) The US production crisis — why offshoring weakened supply chains.

(14:05) Trump’s policy approach: chaotic or calculated?

(21:18) Why the old investing playbook no longer works.

(30:35) The importance of dynamic investing over passive strategies.

Resources Mentioned:

Joseph Gradante -

https://www.linkedin.com/in/yoda-josephgradante/

AJ Giannone -

https://www.linkedin.com/in/agiannone-cfa/

Tyler Goering -

https://www.linkedin.com/in/tyler-goering-cfa/

US Energy Production Data -

https://www.eia.gov

China’s Trade & Economic Policies -

https://www.cfr.org/china

Historical CPI Reports & Inflation Trends -

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

10-Year Treasury Yield Tracker -

https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/u.s.-10-year-bond-yield

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#Macroeconomics #PersonalFinance #InvestmentResearch

The cultural shift in America is undeniable. From tech platforms embracing transparency to the evolving role of Bitcoin and gold as hedges, the team breaks down the macro trends shaping today’s markets. How do investors navigate this volatility while preparing for what’s next?

Co-hosts Joseph Gradante, AJ Giannone, Tyler Goering, and Chris Morgan explore the implications of tech industry shifts, fiscal policies and market volatility. The discussion dives into 10-year treasury yields, inflation concerns and the growing importance of diversification in uncertain times.

Key Takeaways:

(02:02) Tech titans embrace libertarian ideals in content moderation.

(04:28) Virtue-signaling has blocked problem-solving in public discourse.

(12:28) Impacts of possible changes to fiscal policy.

(19:00) Podcasts reshape political communication by bypassing legacy media.

(23:51) 10-year treasury yields climb as fiscal irresponsibility persists.

(27:14) Volatility dominates markets as fiscal clarity remains elusive.

(28:18) Gold and Bitcoin emerge as critical inflation hedges.

(31:04) Diversification remains essential amid economic uncertainty.

Resources Mentioned:

Joseph Gradante -

https://www.linkedin.com/in/yoda-josephgradante/

AJ Giannone -

https://www.linkedin.com/in/agiannone-cfa/

Tyler Goering -

https://www.linkedin.com/in/tyler-goering-cfa/

Chris Morgan -

https://www.linkedin.com/in/christophermorgan01/

10-Year Treasury Yields: Trends and Analysis -

https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/u.s.-10-year-bond-yield

Gold and Bitcoin as Inflation Hedges -

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-vs-gold-better-inflation-233119589.html

Diversification Strategies for Uncertain Markets -

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/gold-inflation-hedge/

Macroeconomic Insights for Investment Portfolios -

https://www.barrons.com/articles/bond-yields-stocks-markets-c547ed93

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#Macroeconomics #PersonalFinance #InvestmentResearch

Shifting coalitions of middle-class voters, geopolitical tensions and AI-driven innovation are reshaping the economic and political landscape in 2025. How will these forces impact growth, markets and global stability?

Co-hosts AJ Giannone, Tyler Goering, Chris Morgan, and Joseph Gradante analyze the Fed’s monetary policy stance, the rise of American manufacturing, and the challenges posed by the China-Taiwan conflict. They also explore the potential of community banks, regulatory reforms and the ongoing boom in artificial intelligence.

Key Takeaways:

(02:14) Middle-class coalitions are redefining American politics.

(04:28) Consumer-driven growth and AI innovation dominate 2025 forecasts.

(07:10) The Fed likely won’t cut rates in 2025; inflation concerns remain.

(09:27) Reshoring production could reduce dependence on Taiwan and China.

(16:03) Consumers show resilience despite potential goods inflation.

(20:05) Pro-business policies must show results before midterm elections.

(27:00) Regulatory capture consolidates big banks’ power over smaller competitors.

(28:00) Reviving community banks is crucial for small business growth.

Resources Mentioned:

AJ Giannone -

https://www.linkedin.com/in/agiannone-cfa/

Tyler Goering -

https://www.linkedin.com/in/tyler-goering-cfa/

Chris Morgan -

https://www.linkedin.com/in/christophermorgan01/

Joseph Gradante -

https://www.linkedin.com/in/yoda-josephgradante/

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: Insights into the Fed’s 2025 strategy -

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/december-2024-annual-performance-plan-2025.htm

China-Taiwan Conflict: How it impacts global markets -

https://rhg.com/research/taiwan-economic-disruptions/

Regulatory Capture in Banking: Challenges for small and community banks -

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-will-the-federal-reserve-revise-its-framework-in-2025/

Thanks for listening to “Orwellian Optics.” If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a 5-star review. And be sure to subscribe so you don’t miss out on new releases.

#Macroeconomics #PersonalFinance #InvestmentResearch