In this episode of Out of Office, Michael Mignano meets up with renowned seed investor and friend Semil Shah in New York City to unpack what it really means to build and invest during a volatile moment in tech. Together they explore whether any startup category is safe now that OpenAI is shipping hit apps like Sora, and how generative media is reshaping everything from product launches to social networks. They dive into the coming saturation of launch videos, the collapse in cost of high-quality creative, and why founders will soon need entirely new tactics to stand out. They get into why seed investing feels increasingly under pressure from accelerators and megafunds, and how prediction markets like Polymarket might eventually disrupt venture capital itself. 

Speaking in front of an audience of friends and colleagues at Joe’s Pub in New York City, The conversation veers into sports betting culture, the NBA scandal, and the broader rise of new markets. Despite the chaos, Semil explains why he still believes seed investing is the best job in the world and why the most exceptional founders will always find a path. 

Episode Chapters: 

0:00 – Cold open: launch videos and why everything looks the same

1:30 – New podcast formats

2:30 – The launch video arms race

6:30 – Generative media & the true cost collapse of video

10:59 – Is any app category safe from OpenAI?

13:10 – Sam Altman & execution

18:00 – How consumers actually use AI

20:01 – What Sora means for social media

24:09 – Seed investors and the “AI wave”

29:24 – Live at Joe’s Pub: Scott Rogowsky intro

30:39 – Sports and the betting market

35:40 – PolyMarket and prediction markets

43:30 – Why seed is under attack

47:20 – People vs. markets

52:20 – AI and category risk

59:00 – Signs of an AI bubble

1:06:03 – The AI roll-up craze

1:11:08 – Audience Q&A: prediction market manipulation and career pride

Stay in touch:

Website: ⁠https://www.lsvp.com⁠

X: ⁠https://x.com/lightspeedvp  ⁠

LinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/company/lightspeed-venture-partners/⁠

Instagram: ⁠https://www.instagram.com/lightspeed/⁠

Subscribe on your favorite podcast app: https:/⁠/linktr.ee/ooolightspeed⁠

Follow Michael:

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The content here does not constitute tax, legal, business or investment advice or an offer to provide such advice, should not be construed as advocating the purchase or sale of any security or investment or a recommendation of any company, and is not an offer, or solicitation of an offer, for the purchase or sale of any security or investment product. For more details please see lsvp.com/legal.

On this inaugural episode of Out of Office, Lightspeed Partner Michael Mignano roams SoHo and Chinatown with filmmaker and YouTube icon Casey Neistat to explore how New York City became his lifelong muse—and how AI is about to reshape filmmaking. They explore Casey’s journey from camcorders and point-and-shoots to phones and drones, and debate why imperfect, human choices often beat pristine, over-engineered images, at least for now. Over rice and roast pork, they dig into authenticity vs. automation and what happens when algorithms can flood the zone with infinite, watchable content. They also look ahead to the “post-phone” era, when everyone has wearables, glasses, and single-purpose devices, and what that will mean for attention, creativity, and future generations.

Chapters:

0:00 Welcome to Out of Office

4:22 Tools, Authenticity & The Evolution of Filmmaking

11:53 AI as a Filmmaking Tool

14:11 The AI Tidal Wave & The Future of Content

20:01 Movies, Theaters and the Attention Economy

26:45 The Business of Video and AI Monetization

30:29 How AI Changes Creator Economics

35:16 What Happens to Big Creators Like MrBeast?

41:19 Peak Phone and the Next Wave of Devices43:12 Beme, Realness & The Lost Internet

47:23 From Startup to CNN & Lessons from the Acquisition

54:54 Can Media & News Survive AI?

59:05 Meta Glasses vs Vision Pro — The Next Interface

1:04:11 Parenting & Raising Kids in a Tech World

1:08:45 Casey’s Final Reflection: Purpose Over Success

ABOUT OUT OF OFFICE PODCAST:

Out of Office is a new podcast from Lightspeed for people who build, create, and think about what’s next. No studio. No Zoom. No filter. Host Michael Mignano, Partner at Lightspeed and Co-Founder of Anchor, steps out into the real world to talk with the most interesting minds in AI, tech, and media. We’re leaving the office behind, hanging out, asking real questions, and letting the conversations go wherever they lead.

Stay In Touch:

Website: http://www.lsvp.com

X: https://x.com/lightspeedvp  

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/lightspeed-venture-partners/

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lightspeed/

Subscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://linktr.ee/ooolightspeed

Follow Michael:

X:  https://x.com/mignano

TikTok:  https://www.tiktok.com/@michael.mignano

LinkedIn:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/mignano/ 

DISCLAIMER:

The content here does not constitute tax, legal, business or investment advice or an offer to provide such advice, should not be construed as advocating the purchase or sale of any security or investment or a recommendation of any company, and is not an offer, or solicitation of an offer, for the purchase or sale of any security or investment product. The views expressed by our guests do not necessarily represent the views of Lightspeed. For more details please see https://www.lsvp.com/legal.

Out of Office is a new podcast from Lightspeed that steps outside traditional spaces for real, unfiltered conversations. No studio. No Zoom. No filter. Hosted by Michael Mignano, Partner at Lightspeed and Co-Founder of Anchor, the show features fascinating guests from AI, tech, and media recorded out in the world, not behind a desk.

Stay in touch:

• www.lsvp.com
• X: https://twitter.com/lightspeedvp
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/lightspeed-venture-partners/
• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lightspeedventurepartners/
• Subscribe on your favorite podcast app: generativenow.co

The content here does not constitute tax, legal, business or investment advice or an offer to provide such advice, should not be construed as advocating the purchase or sale of any security or investment or a recommendation of any company, and is not an offer, or solicitation of an offer, for the purchase or sale of any security or investment product. The views expressed by our guests do not necessarily represent the views of Lightspeed. For more details please see lsvp.com/legal.