Overwatch: Crisis Brief

Iraq's government has not addressed the conditions that prompted street protests in early October 2019. Baghdad will also struggle to hold accountable the forces that engaged in a violent crackdown on protesters given Iran's role in Iraq. The stage now appears set for a new phase of unrest. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and ISW Iraq analyst Samantha Leathley discuss the potential for renewed protests this week at a time when some U.S. forces are shifting from Syria to Iraq. *Originally published October 21, 2019.

The U.S. military withdrawal from Syria and subsequent Turkish advances are creating a new opening for Russia and its partners. Russian forces have taken over areas vacated by the U.S. as the Kremlin positions itself to reshape Syria's future. ISW Research analyst Mason Clark joins ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella to discuss the latest Russian maneuvers and how they advance Vladimir Putin's broader ambitions in Syria. *Originally published October 16, 2019.

The situation on the ground is rapidly evolving as the Turkish offensive advances into Syria. ISIS is taking advantage of the conditions of chaos to resurge and threaten to reverse progress made by the Anti-ISIS Coalition. ISW's Research Director Jennifer Cafarella, Syria expert John Dunford, and Counterterrorism expert Brandon Wallace discuss how recent developments may threaten U.S. forces as they withdraw and what ISW is watching heading into the week. *Originally published October 15, 2019.

Turkey has initiated a military operation into a part of Northern Syria controlled by Syrian Kurdish-led forces. The operation follows a U.S. decision to withdrawal from the immediate area controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) - the primary Syria-based U.S. partner in the campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS). As Turkish forces move across the border and the SDF responds, ISW's Syria expert John Dunford explained the context, key dynamics shaping the battle, and the effects on the counter-ISIS campaign. *Originally published October 9, 2019.

Iran signaled it may send Iranian security forces to Iraq, ostensibly to secure the upcoming Arbae'en pilgrimage. But Iran may alternatively be preparing these Law Enforcement Forces (LEF) to help suppress Iraqi protests. The LEF previously helped the Bashar al Assad regime attempt to suppress the Syrian rebellion as early as 2011. The Iranian Regime has used it more recently to quell dementing protests. The unit may assist Iran's proxies in Iraq to do the same. Nicholas Carl, an Iran expert at the Critical Threats Project, discusses this possibility and its implications with ISW's Research Director Jennifer Cafarella. *Originally published October 8, 2019.

The Iraqi prime minister's concessions to protesters reflects one aspect of the ongoing crisis, but it is only a part of the story unfolding. There remains a fierce and ongoing competition for the future of Iraq. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella is joined by the Critical Threats Project's Iran Analyst Nicholas Carl to discuss the Iraqi government's recent actions, what the information environment tells us about the situation on the ground, and how the Iranian regime is positioning its proxies as it vies for greater control. *Originally published October 7, 2019.

Turkey is about to invade Northeastern Syria with U.S. permission despite previous American security guarantees to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The U.S. has not yet announced a full withdrawal from Syria but U.S. forces pulled back from the border. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and Syria expert John Dunford discuss what options the SDF has and how other actors, including ISIS and Iran, are prepared to exploit the possible chaos to follow. *Originally published October 7, 2019.

The crisis in Iraq continues to escalate. Multiple reports of assassinations and other targeted killings of activists and demonstrators reflect an attempt to suppress the protests through intimidation, likely by Iran's proxies. Leading Shi'a political figure Muqtada al Sadr called for the dissolution of the government and a new election in an attempt to oust the sitting Prime Minister, who has failed to address the crisis. A parliament session is reportedly scheduled for October 5th. It remains unclear whether a reshuffle in the political leadership in Baghdad would ameliorate protest demands, however. ISW's Iraq expert Samantha Leathley joins Jennifer Cafarella to discuss developments on the ground and what ISW is watching for next. *Originally published October 4, 2019.

Iraqi protesters have defied a government curfew in Baghdad, triggering renewed clashes with security forces. The death toll is now at 19 with hundreds wounded. The internet remains severed as the Iraqi government tries to disrupt the protest momentum and minimize reports of civilian casualties. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and CTP Iran Analyst Nicholas Carl discuss what has transpired in the last 12 hours and what to watch for next. *Originally published October 2, 2019.

This update addresses the political dynamics that have lead to recent mass protests against the Iraqi government. ISW's Research Director Jennifer Cafarella zooms out to discuss how key actors, domestic political competition, and Iranian influence over the last several years has shaped the current crisis. *Originally published October 3, 2019.