When Obama left the White House he stated that the thing that kept him up at night more than anything else was the potential for Pakistan and India to stumble into an unplanned nuclear exchange.   What was once a regional conflict has now drawn in a number of great powers such as China, and the US, but no side yet has a real plan to try to avert the risk of this simmering conflict going nuclear. The estimate is that in the event of an Indian invasion toward Islamabad the Pakistani command may only have around 6 hours to either "use or lose" their nuclear weapons, so we ask our panel what the likely outcome will be for this nightmare scenario.   On the panel this week.   Ayesha Jalal (Tufts University) Adam Weinstein (Foreign Policy) Andrew Small (George Marshall Fund)  For more information please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com  Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus  
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

39 - Pakistan's Two Front War

Three experts, one Story. Each fortnight we host a panel of international experts diving into the biggest geopolitical stories shaping the news both here and overseas. 

Hosted by Michael Hilliard

News

Politics

News Commentary

In the inaugural episode of our new mini-series, we dive deep into the military landscape of Central Asia, starting with a spotlight on Tajikistan. This first episode uncovers the region's convoluted command structures and the unique challenges faced by the national armed forces operating here. Why does the Tajik army operate the way it does? What hidden factors influence their command, doctrines, and equipment? Our expert panel will unravel these complexities, providing captivating insights into the evolving dynamics of Tajikistan's military and its increasingly pivotal role in Central Asian politics. Don't miss this deep dive into the heart of Central Asian defence strategies.

On the panel this week:
- Bruce Pannier (Central Asia Journalist)
- Derek Bisaccio (Forecast International)
- Katie Putz (The Diplomat)
- Steve Swerdlow (USC)
- Edward Lemon (The Oxus Society)

Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod
Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus
Support The Red Line at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast
Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord
For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Armed Forces of Central Asia - Part 1 : Tajikistan and Regional Command Structures

As economic sanctions continue to tighten their grip on Russia, the nation is forced to seek assistance from whoever it can, turning to China not out of mutual interest but as a necessity. Yet, this support comes at a steep price, heightening concerns in Moscow that it's inadvertently solidifying a new, skewed power dynamic. As China capitalizes on Russia's vulnerabilities, one has to wonder if this is merely business or if there's a deeper play to settle historical grievances. Can Russia untangle itself from this precarious alliance? What are the obstacles in broadening their so-called "no-limits" friendship, and what implications will these have on future Sino-Russian energy deals? We ask our panel of experts:

On the panel this week:
- Keir Giles (Chatham House)
- Gavin Wilde (CEIP)
- Temur Umarov (CEIP)

Intro - 00:00
PART 1 - 04:07
PART 2 - 23:47
PART 3 - 38:47
Outro - 58:10

Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod
Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus
Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast
Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord
For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

120 - The Forced Friendship: Russia's Uneasy Alliance with China

As President Prabowo Subianto prepares to enter the presidency, the Indonesian military stands at a crucial juncture, navigating both traditional and emerging defence challenges. With Prabowo's extensive military background and his previous five years at the helm of the armed forces, this term is particularly poised to potentially reshape strategies around procurement, international agreements, and even the core tenets of the Indonesian military itself. This week, we delve into the evolving dynamics within the Indonesian military as it grapples with modernisation and regional security pressures, and examine the potential shifts and tough decisions likely to fall onto his desk during the next five years. So why is this term likely the most important for the military? What do Prabowo's purchases and policy shifts tell us about his future policies, and will Indonesia finally take its place as a significant military power within Southeast Asia? We ask our panel of experts:

On the panel this week:
- John Blaxland (ANU) 
- Natalie Sambhi (Verve Research) 
- Collin Koh (RSIS)

Intro - 00:00
PART 1 - 02:03
PART 2 - 18:47
PART 3 - 44:05
Outro - 1:03:10

Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod
Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus
Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast
Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/dis...
For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

119 - Indonesia's Defence Dilemma

Tensions are on the rise between San Marino and Italy, revealing a potential crisis on the Italian Peninsula that many analysts are missing. This situation, seemingly minor, hints at deep-seated unrest that could destabilize the region. We delve into the nuances of this brewing conflict, urging a reevaluation of its possible impact on European stability. Through expert insights, we aim to uncover the undercurrents of this overlooked crisis, highlighting the urgency of recognizing and preparing for the ramifications of this unfolding discord.

On the panel this week:
- James Ker-Lindsay (LSE)

Intro - 00:00
PART 1 - 01:30
Outro - 14:37

RELEASED: APRIL 1st 2024.

Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod
Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus
Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast
Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord
For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

118 - Wargaming: San Marino vs. Italy

Delving into the shadowy realm of the small arms trade, we unravel a web of clandestine dealings and backroom deals that span the entire globe, arming insurgents, equipping terrorists, and bolstering criminal networks, thus creating some of the world's most volatile regions. As these weapons cross borders, both through legal and illegal means, their paths become increasingly complicated, yet the underlying fundamentals beneath the trade remain stubbornly rigid. In this deep dive, we seek to unpack the trends that drive the industry, identify which markets are currently hotbeds of small arms sales, and explore the nuanced dynamics that completely change the procurement patterns of cartels or regional insurgency groups. We unpack a hypothetical scenario of a theoretical insurgency group to demonstrate the unexpected challenges faced by these groups, with a panel of industry experts:

On the panel this week:
- Nicholas Marsh (PRIO)
- Franz J. Marty (Swiss Institute for Global Affairs) 
- Mark Bromley (SIPRI)

Intro - 00:00
PART 1 - 02:25
PART 2 - 24:47
PART 3 - 44:32
Outro - 1:00:34

Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod
Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus
Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast
Submit Questions and Join the Red Line Discord Server at: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/discord
For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

39 - Pakistan's Two Front War

Download our free app to listen on your phone