Patrick Boyle

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Nikkei Asia recently reported that the five biggest US tech companies are carrying an estimated $1.65 trillion in "hidden," off-balance-sheet debt — and a lot of commentators have reached for the word "Enron" to describe the issue. In this video I look at whether that comparison holds up. It doesn't: unlike Enron, this debt isn't concealed through fraud — it's disclosed in the footnotes, it breaks no accounting rules, and much of what is going on is perfectly ordinary. But that raises a more interesting question than "will they get caught." If the aggressive stuff — the adjusted earnings, the leases, the stock-based compensation added back — is all sitting there in plain sight, does dressing up the numbers actually fool anyone? Drawing on the work of Aswath Damodaran, Richard Sloan, Robert Bloomfield and others, I dig into what the research says about whether markets reward clean accounting or aggressive accounting, why the debt isn't hidden so much as filed somewhere too tedious for most people to read — and why the real risk in the AI boom probably isn't the borrowing at all, but the enormous revenue it's all assuming will show up.

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Ways To Support The Channel
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.social

Business Inquiries ➡️ [email protected]

Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uhrWlDvxzy9hLoW0EYf0b
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-boyle-on-finance/id1547740313
Google Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/62862nve

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Javier Milei has been in office for one year having taken over an economy on the brink of collapse. Milei managed to cut the monthly inflation rate from 26 per cent before he took office to 2.7 per cent in October. The Argentine peso has strengthened significantly against the black-market dollar over the past six months and Argentina’s sovereign bond prices have roughly tripled.

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Ways To Support The Channel
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

Business Inquiries ➡️ [email protected]

Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uhrWlDvxzy9hLoW0EYf0b
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-boyle-on-finance/id1547740313
Google Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/62862nve

Further Reading:
FT - Has Javier Milei proved his critics wrong? https://www.ft.com/content/35b444a1-608c-48b5-a991-01f2ac3362be
The Economist - The making of an economic miracle? https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2024/11/20/argentina-the-making-of-an-economic-miracle
Javier Milei's Argentina in 6 Charts: https://news.gallup.com/poll/654089/javier-milei-argentina-charts.aspx

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Buy The Book Here: https://amzn.to/2J2kF3A
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance

Can The US Oil ETF Go Negative?

As we discussed on Monday, this is not quite a story of “the price of oil is negative”; it is more a story of “the price of physically settled front-month West Texas Intermediate oil futures is negative.”

As the May expiry rolled around, all the financial buyers wanted out, but none of the refiners wanted to take their positions and so the financial traders had to pay someone quite a bit of money to take the oil off their hands. Events in the real world caused this—but oddities of financial markets exacerbated it.

It is not impossible, for the futures price to flip to negative. It is unprecedented, and it is strange. But dealing with a negative futures price is fairly straightforward and intuitive. Futures trade on an exchange, there is a clearinghouse, traders have to be creditworthy and post daily margin as the price moves. If the price goes down, money moves along well-understood channels if the price goes negative, those channels keep working.

What is problematic, is that people have built retail financial products using oil futures, and those products assume that the lowest possible price for oil futures is zero.

The problem is that oil futures prices can go negative, but ETF share prices can’t. If you buy an ETF on a stock exchange, and its value goes to zero, you can walk away; no one can ask you for more money. USO’s value hasn’t gone negative—it avoided Monday’s negative prices—but the structure has become a problematic.


What does it mean that oil prices turned negative? https://youtu.be/dfqmjSOD7pQ

What is going on with USO - The US Oil ETF? https://youtu.be/BIqIjbHeV-g

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Buy The Book Here: https://amzn.to/2J2kF3A
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance

Can The US Oil ETF Go Negative?

As we discussed on Monday, this is not quite a story of “the price of oil is negative”; it is more a story of “the price of physically settled front-month West Texas Intermediate oil futures is negative.”

As the May expiry rolled around, all the financial buyers wanted out, but none of the refiners wanted to take their positions and so the financial traders had to pay someone quite a bit of money to take the oil off their hands. Events in the real world caused this—but oddities of financial markets exacerbated it.

It is not impossible, for the futures price to flip to negative. It is unprecedented, and it is strange. But dealing with a negative futures price is fairly straightforward and intuitive. Futures trade on an exchange, there is a clearinghouse, traders have to be creditworthy and post daily margin as the price moves. If the price goes down, money moves along well-understood channels if the price goes negative, those channels keep working.

What is problematic, is that people have built retail financial products using oil futures, and those products assume that the lowest possible price for oil futures is zero.

The problem is that oil futures prices can go negative, but ETF share prices can’t. If you buy an ETF on a stock exchange, and its value goes to zero, you can walk away; no one can ask you for more money. USO’s value hasn’t gone negative—it avoided Monday’s negative prices—but the structure has become a problematic.


What does it mean that oil prices turned negative? https://youtu.be/dfqmjSOD7pQ

What is going on with USO - The US Oil ETF? https://youtu.be/BIqIjbHeV-g

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Taking care of your health just got easier, thanks to my sponsor Zocdoc! Start here at: https://zocdoc.com/partickboyle

Europe's automotive industry is facing a historic crisis as Volkswagen weighs unprecedented factory closures and massive job cuts. However, the root of the problem isn't just high energy costs or European bureaucracy—it's China Shock 2.0. With Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers building cars significantly faster and for thousands of euros less, traditional German automakers are rapidly losing market share both at home and abroad. This video analyzes the structural trade imbalances flooding the market with subsidized EVs, explains why laying off workers won't solve Volkswagen's €6,000 per-car cost gap, and examines whether new European Union tariffs will protect domestic manufacturing or simply trigger a costly global trade war.

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Ways To Support The Channel
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.social

Business Inquiries ➡️ [email protected]

Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uhrWlDvxzy9hLoW0EYf0b
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-boyle-on-finance/id1547740313
Google Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/62862nve

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In todays video we learn about Credit Default Swaps - Credit Derivatives.

These classes are all based on the book Trading and Pricing Financial Derivatives, available on Amazon at this link. https://amzn.to/2WIoAL0
Check out our website http://www.onfinance.org/

Follow Patrick on twitter here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

What is a Credit Default Swap?
a financial contract whereby a buyer of corporate or sovereign debt in the form of bonds attempts to eliminate possible loss arising from default by the issuer of the bonds. This is achieved by the issuer of the bonds insuring the buyer’s potential losses as part of the agreement.

A credit default swap (CDS) is a financial swap agreement that the seller of the CDS will compensate the buyer in the event of a debt default (by the debtor) or other credit event. That is, the seller of the CDS insures the buyer against some reference asset defaulting. The buyer of the CDS makes a series of payments (the CDS "fee" or "spread") to the seller and, in exchange, may expect to receive a payoff if the asset defaults.

In the event of default, the buyer of the CDS receives compensation (usually the face value of the loan), and the seller of the CDS takes possession of the defaulted loan or its market value in cash. However, anyone can purchase a CDS, even buyers who do not hold the loan instrument and who have no direct insurable interest in the loan (these are called "naked" CDSs). If there are more CDS contracts outstanding than bonds in existence, a protocol exists to hold a credit event auction. The payment received is often substantially less than the face value of the loan.

Credit default swaps in their current form have existed since the early 1990s, and increased in use in the early 2000s. By the end of 2007, the outstanding CDS amount was $62.2 trillion, falling to $26.3 trillion by mid-year 2010 and reportedly $25.5 trillion in early 2012. CDSs are not traded on an exchange and there is no required reporting of transactions to a government agency. During the 2007–2010 financial crisis the lack of transparency in this large market became a concern to regulators as it could pose a systemic risk. In March 2010, the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (see Sources of Market Data) announced it would give regulators greater access to its credit default swaps database.

CDS data can be used by financial professionals, regulators, and the media to monitor how the market views credit risk of any entity on which a CDS is available, which can be compared to that provided by the Credit Rating Agencies. U.S. Courts may soon be following suit.

Most CDSs are documented using standard forms drafted by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA), although there are many variants. In addition to the basic, single-name swaps, there are basket default swaps (BDSs), index CDSs, funded CDSs (also called credit-linked notes), as well as loan-only credit default swaps (LCDS). In addition to corporations and governments, the reference entity can include a special purpose vehicle issuing asset-backed securities.

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👉🏻 To try everything Brilliant has to offer for free for a full 30 days, visit https://brilliant.org/patrick/. You’ll also get 20% off an annual premium subscription.

In this video, we explore how China’s dominance in rare earth elements has become a powerful geopolitical tool—and why the United States is struggling to catch up. From the Mountain Pass mine in California to Apple’s $500 million recycling push, we unpack the strategic importance of rare earths in everything from electric vehicles and smartphones to fiber optics and missile systems.
We also look at the recent Trump–Xi summit, the temporary truce on export controls, and the deeper tensions that remain unresolved. Why are rare earths so hard to substitute? How does China’s export licensing regime work? And what happens if the U.S. gets cut off?

🔍 Topics covered:

Rare earths in global supply chains
China’s export controls and licensing strategy
U.S. efforts to rebuild domestic production
Military vs civilian demand for rare earths
Recycling, substitution, and strategic stockpiling

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Ways To Support The Channel
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.social

Business Inquiries ➡️ [email protected]

Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uhrWlDvxzy9hLoW0EYf0b
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-boyle-on-finance/id1547740313
Google Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/62862nve

Join this channel to support making this content:
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The stock market just hit a record high. Meanwhile, captains in the Persian Gulf are turning off their transponders and sneaking through the Strait of Hormuz in the dead of night. Only five ships made it through yesterday. The seaborne oil buffer that insulated the global economy in the early weeks of the conflict is now completely exhausted, and the knock-on effects - from jet fuel shortages in Europe to a fertilizer crisis threatening this year's harvest - are only just beginning to show up in the data. In this video, we look at why the physical commodity markets are telling a very different story to the stock market, and what happens when the world's most critical trade route is caught between two competing blockades.

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Ways To Support The Channel
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.social

Business Inquiries ➡️ [email protected]

Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uhrWlDvxzy9hLoW0EYf0b
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-boyle-on-finance/id1547740313
Google Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/62862nve

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What is a Strangle? Options Trading Strategy - Options Combinations

These classes are all based on the book Trading and Pricing Financial Derivatives, available on Amazon at this link. https://amzn.to/2WIoAL0
Check out our website http://www.onfinance.org/

Follow Patrick on twitter here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

What is a Strangle?
A strangle is an options strategy where the investor holds a position in both a call and put with different strike prices, but with the same expiration date and underlying asset. This option strategy is profitable only if the underlying asset has a large price move. This is a good strategy if you think there will be a large price movement in the near future but are unsure of which way that price movement will be.

What is Long Strangle?
A long strangle is simultaneously buying an out of the money call and an out-of-the-money put option. This strategy has a large profit potential, since the call option has theoretically unlimited profit if the underlying asset rises in price, and the put option can profit if the underlying asset falls. The risk on the trade is limited to the premium paid for the two options.

What is a Short Strangle?
A short strangle is a neutral strategy and has limited profit potential. The maximum profit is equivalent to the net premium received for writing the two options, less any trading costs. A short strangle is selling an out of the money call and an out of the money put option.

What is the Difference Between Strangle and Straddle?
Long strangles and long straddles are similar options strategies that allow investors to gain from large potential moves to the upside or downside. However, a long straddle involves simultaneously purchasing at the money call and put options.

A short straddle is similar to a short strangle and has a limited maximum profit potential that is equivalent to the premium collected from writing the at the money call and put options.

Buying a strangle is generally less expensive than a straddle as the contracts are purchased out of the money. The counter-argument to this is that since the options are out of the money, the underlying will need to make a larger price move in order for the strategy to create a profit.

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In todays class we learn about what a volatility swap is.

These classes are all based on the book Trading and Pricing Financial Derivatives, available on Amazon at this link. https://amzn.to/2WIoAL0
Check out our website http://www.onfinance.org/

Follow Patrick on twitter here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

What is a Volatility Swap?
A volatility swap is a forward contract with a payoff based on the realized volatility of the underlying asset. Volatility swaps settle in cash based on the difference between the realized volatility and the volatility strike.

They are not swaps in the traditional sense, with an exchange of cash flows between counterparties.

At settlement, the payoff is, Notional Amount X (Volatility – Volatility Strike)

They are also similar to variance swaps, where the payoff is based on realized variance. Check out my video on variance swaps here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XO1vKxx4z0M

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