Patrick Boyle

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Russia's war economy is running out of road. Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked out roughly a third of Russia's oil refining capacity, forcing an energy superpower to ration petrol at home and import gasoline from India — while Crimea sits under a state of emergency with the air-raid sirens switched off so the tourists aren't disturbed. In this video we look at what the numbers actually say: a contracting economy despite record military spending, a National Wealth Fund down from 6.5% of GDP to 1.8%, a first-quarter budget deficit that blew through the entire year's target in ninety days, and a banking system quietly commandeered to keep the tank factories running. We look at how China has turned the "no limits" partnership into a very one-sided arrangement, why Europe's largest rearmament since the Cold War sent defence stocks down, whether Europe actually needs expensive American fighter jets or is simply paying tribute to Washington — and what the Russian endgame realistically looks like, according to a Russian billionaire who is not a dissident. Featuring the Kiel Institute's "Endgame" report, Tucker Carlson's demon, and the parade Vladimir Putin had to get Zelensky's permission to hold.

Most of the economic figures in this video came from the Kiel Institute paper - Endgame: Russia’s war economy hits its limits. https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/news/endgame-russias-war-economy-hits-its-limits/

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

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Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:
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A Texas District Judge Andrew S. Hanen has dismissed all charges against seven social-media influencers the SEC and Justice Department had accused of perpetrating a “stock manipulation scheme” on Twitter and Discord, ruling that the prosecution failed to state an offense in a case alleging securities fraud.

The influencers were accused of securities fraud through a Pump and Dump scheme as they posted on social media that they owned or were buying various penny stocks but did not state that they were selling the stock as their followers bought. In his ruling, Judge Hanen rejected the government’s argument that this constituted a crime and concluded that the defendants “did not deprive investors of their money or property through any misrepresentation.”

Professor Sue Guan Paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4857628
SEC Press Release: https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022-221
Court Opinion: https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rmMOgPQgozIw/v0

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

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Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:
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In this video we will learn how financial Derivatives are Traded, what are the major derivative types and what is the economic function of the derivatives market?

These classes are all based on the book Trading and Pricing Financial Derivatives, available on Amazon at this link. https://amzn.to/2WIoAL0
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How Negative Interest Rates Work, and What They Would Mean for the Economy. Negative Interest Rates Explained.
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What are Negative Interest Rates and How Do They Work?
Welcome back to Patrick Boyle on Finance. In today’s video we are going to learn about Negative Interest Rates which have been all over the news recently. U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested the Federal Reserve should bring interest rates below zero... but what does that even mean? Will you be paid for taking out a loan? We'll answer these questions and more.

Today we will discuss how negative interest rates work, where have they been implemented, how they would affect savers and borrowers, what are the side effects of negative rates, and if you stay tuned to the end I will tell you the six ways University of Chicago Finance Professor John Cochrane to effectively earn an interest rate of zero even if paper currency, along with money in the bank is earning a negative interest rate.

Countries around the world are taking all sorts of extreme measures to keep their economies afloat during the coronavirus pandemic. I put up a video a few weeks ago on which country is spending the most in terms of GDP in these efforts.

The US Federal Reserve has already cut the federal funds rate twice in 2020, and there's debate amongst some, about whether the agency should lower rates again.

Right now, the US federal funds target rate is 0% to 0.25%. If the Fed lowered rates again to help the US economy, rates would drop below zero.
Negative interest rates are controversial, but countries such as Sweden, Switzerland, Denmark and Japan have already implemented this approach. What are Negative Interest Rates and How Do They Work?

Albert Einstein once called compound interest the eighth wonder of the world, adding, “He who understands it, earns it... he who doesn’t... pays it.” But at negative interest rates money saved today would instead be worth less every day going forward.

To better understand negative interest rates, it’s helpful to start by looking at the historical background. During the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, central banks decided to lower interest rates as close to zero as possible. Economies around the world began to recover but at only at a slow pace so the central banks chose to keep rates low, in the hope that individuals and businesses would be encouraged to borrow more, increase spending, stimulate economic activity, and create jobs.

At zero percent, borrowing and spending remained sluggish, and nations were worried about deflation. So central banks introduced an arsenal of unconventional monetary policy measures in order to stimulate real growth and prevent deflation. They included central bank purchases of increasingly risky assets, forward guidance, and negative interest rates.

Negative Interest Rates Explained.

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Last month Meta agreed to pay up to $18 billion dollars to settle claims that it knowingly harmed teenagers — a number the press immediately called Big Tech's "tobacco moment." Wall Street responded by sending the stock up.

In this video I read the actual 130-page consent judgment so that you don't have to, and work out what Meta really bought for its money. It turns out the headline figure is worth about two days of revenue, the "new" safety rules are mostly settings Meta had already written for itself, and the fine print lands rather more heavily on TikTok than on Meta. We'll also get into why the attorneys general took the deal, what Meta was actually paying to make disappear, and why the real reckoning might end up happening in a cinema rather than a courtroom.

Meta's Internal Research Website: https://metasinternalresearch.org/

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Ways To Support The Channel
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Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org
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Business Inquiries ➡️ [email protected]

Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:
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The activist short seller Andrew Left surrendered to authorities in Los Angeles on Monday to face federal criminal securities fraud charges, a spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s Office there said.

Both the SEC and a federal grand jury in the Central District of California brought charges against Andrew Left a prominent activist short seller with multiple counts of securities fraud for a long-running market manipulation scheme reaping profits of at least $20 million.

As alleged in the indictment, Left commented on publicly traded companies, asserting that the market incorrectly valued a company’s stock and advocating that the current price was too high or too low. Left’s recommendations often included an explicit or implicit representation about Citron’s trading position—which the regulators claim created the false pretense that Left’s economic incentives aligned with his public recommendation—and a “target price,” which Left represented as his valuation of the company’s stock. Left is accused of working with hedge funds to short and distort stock prices.

Andrew Left became well known in 2021 as one of the hedge funds short GameStop stock.

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Ways To Support The Channel
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Useful Links:
Christopher Bloomstran Tweet https://x.com/ChrisBloomstran/status/1801325325390893492
Matt Levine Article: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-07-26/andrew-left-wasn-t-short-for-long?srnd=undefined&embedded-checkout=true#footer-ref-footnote-2
John Hempton Substack: https://johnhempton.substack.com/p/some-thoughts-on-the-andrew-left
FT Marc Cohodes: https://www.ft.com/content/01b765c2-854e-11ea-b6e9-a94cffd1d9bf
PAPERS
Massa Zhang & Zhang Paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2124464
Short & Distort Paper: https://scholarship.law.columbia.edu/faculty_scholarship/2782/
Complaints
SEC Complaint: https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024-89
Department of Justice Indictment: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/activist-short-seller-charged-16m-stock-market-manipulation-scheme


Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:
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US 30-year Treasury yields just hit 5.2% — the highest level since July 2007. UK gilt yields are at levels not seen since 1998. Japanese bond yields are at record highs. Something is happening in global bond markets, and it's not just about inflation.

In this video I explain what's driving the global rise in long-term borrowing costs, why the era of free money is probably over, and what fiscal dominance means for central bank independence. I cover the history of US presidents fighting with the Federal Reserve — including LBJ shoving his Fed Chair against a wall — the 1970s UK economic collapse, the Liz Truss mini-budget crisis, the role of private credit and off-balance-sheet SPVs in financing the AI boom, and what all of this means for the new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Ways To Support The Channel
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
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Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.social

Business Inquiries ➡️ [email protected]

Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uhrWlDvxzy9hLoW0EYf0b
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-boyle-on-finance/id1547740313
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The US Senate overwhelmingly approved new legislation on Wednesday that could lead to Chinese companies such as Alibaba Group and Baidu possibly being delisted from U.S. stock exchanges amid increasingly tense relations between the world’s two largest economies.

The bill was approved by unanimous consent in the US Senate and would require companies to certify that they are not under the control of a foreign government. It would require that foreign companies listed on a US exchange be audited by the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board.

If a company can’t show that it is not under government control or the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board isn’t able to audit the company for three consecutive years, the company’s securities would be removed from US exchanges.


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The Public Company Accounting Oversight Board or PCAOB is a little-known agency, created by the Sarbanes–Oxley Act in 2002 to oversee the audits of public companies and other securities issuers. The Sarbanes-Oxley Act required that auditors of U.S. public companies be subject to external and independent oversight for the first time in history. Previously, the profession was self-regulated.

This all came about in response to the Enron accounting scandal in 2001 which brought down Arthur Andersen after it was found guilty of crimes in the firm's auditing of Enron.

The Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, is not yet law. For this to become law, it has to be voted on by the House of Representatives and then sent to the President of the United States who can choose whether or not to sign the bill. If the President signs the bill, it becomes a law.

Why is this an issue all of a sudden?

There have been a number of scandals in the last short while which have raised questions about the state of Chinese accounting practices, and whether stock exchanges are doing enough to protect investors from fraud and scandal. The most notable story has been the fall of Luckin Coffee, which announced that it may have overstated sales by hundreds of millions of dollars. Nasdaq has since sent a notice to Luckin Coffee that it intends to delist the company’s ADR shares from the exchange.
Around the world the models of corporate governance differ according to the variety of capitalism in the countries in which firms are incorporated. The Anglo-American model emphasizes the interests of shareholders. The multi-stakeholder model associated with Continental Europe and Japan also recognizes the interests of workers, managers, suppliers, customers, and the community. Corporate governance is of great importance economically. It is the reason that investors have faith in the capital markets and are willing to invest their savings in projects and businesses that provide jobs, economic growth, and products to the marketplace.
I have a chapter in my Corporate Finance book, on corporate governance which goes through the various laws and listing requirements, particularly in the United States.

There has been a general trend towards better corporate governance around the world – a trend which started after the 1929 stock market crash. In recent years, a lot of Silicon Valley companies have bucked that trend.

Facebook went public a few years ago with a multiple share class structure. This enabled Founder shares to maintain 10 times the voting rights of common shareholders. Shortly after that Snap went public issuing only non-voting shares to the public.

Former president Donald Trump last year issued an order banning investments in companies that the Pentagon had put on a list of groups with suspected links to the People’s Liberation Army.


Companies can look around the world to find exchanges to list on, but no regulatory

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For years, the auto industry has been hyping the transition to electric vehicles with optimistic sales forecasts for electric models and huge growth projections. Investors pumped up valuations for automakers, based on their visions for an electric future.

Now the hype is dwindling, and companies are again cheering consumer choice. Automakers from Ford Motor and General Motors to Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen and Volvo are scaling back or delaying their electric vehicle plans.

Tesla’s annual vehicle deliveries declined for the first time in more than a decade during a period when overall car sales are up. Have automakers overinvested in EVs and are EVs killing the car industry?

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

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Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uhrWlDvxzy9hLoW0EYf0b
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Further Reading:
How Trump policies could reshape the EV industry: https://observer.com/2024/12/trump-ev-policy-tesla/
Norway EV subsidies: https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/renewable/the-hypocrisy-of-the-electric-vehicle-movement/
Tesla Deliveries drop: https://www.ft.com/content/f13d799c-a4dc-4619-b876-6ec68b502fec
Automakers struggling: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/15/business/automakers-trouble.html
Northvolt Bankruptcy: https://www.ft.com/content/09938004-21b9-4750-8fa2-9ed15c566d4e
The Winners & Losers in Auto Sales: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g63335108/auto-sales-q4-2024-winners-losers/
Why Norway is Having Second Thoughts about EVs: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23939076/norway-electric-vehicle-cars-evs-tesla-oslo

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Big Tech is slashing hundreds of thousands of jobs and blaming artificial intelligence, but there may be more to the story than that. Intel just announced fifteen thousand layoffs yesterday, causing their stock price to plunge. Big Tech, who for over a decade provided all sorts of employee perks may no longer be the dream place to work.

Microphone Stand: https://amzn.to/3WuIQgh
Funny @KellyStamps "day in the life" video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arwwguR9tGM

Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC

Ways To Support The Channel
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
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Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle

Business Inquiries ➡️ [email protected]

Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uhrWlDvxzy9hLoW0EYf0b
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-boyle-on-finance/id1547740313
Google Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/62862nve

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