Is the ceasefire real. Is the inflation print realer.

On April 8th the US and Iran agreed to a two week pause brokered by Pakistan. Iran put forward a 10 point proposal covering Hormuz transit, sanctions relief, war reparations and nuclear enrichment. Trump called it workable. Iran called it a victory. Israel kept bombing Lebanon anyway.

A few hours later the market remembered Friday exists.

March CPI drops April 10th at 8:30am ET. Consensus is 3.4% year over year, up a full 100 basis points from February's 2.4% in a single month. One driver. Gasoline went from $2.98 on February 26th to $4.14 by end of March. A 39% move at the pump in 40 days. Energy alone accounts for an estimated 50 to 65 basis points of the entire headline print.

The problem nobody wants to say out loud: core was already broken before the first bomb dropped. Tariffs, airline fares, food costs and delivery surcharges are all moving higher simultaneously. The IEA warned April will be worse than March.

The Fed is boxed. 98% of the market says they hold April 29th. The real question is what they say next. One more hot print and the pivot narrative is not just dead. It gets buried.

The deal was announced. The damage was already done.

Sources: Foreign Policy, CNN, Al Jazeera, NBC News, Morningstar, Kiplinger, BLS