Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s second budget is one full of political compromises that can keep her in office, but does little to address fundamental economic issues. The budget does little to seriously tackle sluggish growth, low confidence, or a bloated public sector financed by a distortive tax system. However, unlike with last year’s NICs increase, the budget does not seem to contain any serious inflationary measures either – keeping open the door for further BoE rate cuts.
The new measures leave the overall fiscal position broadly neutral by the end of the five-year forecast – but with substantial front-end easing and back-loaded tightening. The Government now has £21.7bn against its self-imposed target to balance current spending by 2029/30 – up from £9.9bn in March. For financial markets, the budget is tolerable – with no major shifts in rates, BoE pricing, or inflation expectations. But the danger comes with the back-loaded nature of the budget.
The base case for the UK economy should be growth beating to the upside, thanks to a disinflationary tailwind and lower interest rates – but fiscal uncertainties remain.