Briefly for all subscribers, the key things to know from Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate on Monday, July 21 are:

* The Government tried to paint a $6 billion announcement on infrastructure yesterday as new news that would boost the economy and jobs. It isn’t. See more below in The Lead and in the podcast above.

* PM Christopher Luxon visited the Tasman region over the weekend, having earlier said the Government couldn’t afford climate relocation bailouts, which Labour Leader Chris Hipkins agreed. Luxon announced the Government would instead pay $5 million for a rain radar for Nelson, 10 years after hydrologists asked for it and not part of a much more useful national network of radars, which Governments of both flavours have also said they won’t pay for.

* The Quote of the Day is from John Key telling the Reserve Bank to cut 100 basis points. See the full quote below.

* More than 20,000 people have applied for 500 jobs at Ikea’s first New Zealand store due to open in Auckland later this year. See Number of the Day below.

* The Reserve Bank’s real-time NowCast for the June quarter found in its latest weekly update on Friday a larger GDP contraction of 0.2883 % from the March quarter, up from 0.2462% the previous week. See more in The Chart of the Day.

* Today’s must-read is from Aaron Smale via 1News: Haunting memories: new doco explores horror of growing up in 'care' in NZ. See more in my Picks ‘n Mixes below

Paying subscribers hear more detail, analysis and commentary in the podcast above and get the links and sourcing below the paywall, along with my full Picks ‘n’ Mixes for this morning. I’ll open it up for all to read, listen and share if paying subscribers give it more than 100 likes.

The Lead: Performative politics in high viz

The Government announced what appeared to be $6 billion in fresh infrastructure spending yesterday, but it turns out much had already been previously announced, and some of the total was still vapourware, as this caveat in the statement made clear:

“This list excludes a small number of significant projects which will begin construction before the end of 2025, but cannot yet be named for a range of commercial reasons. The value of these projects is included in the $6 billion total. Announcements will be made about them in the coming weeks and months.” Chris Bishop.

They key report to check when assessing if the Government is increasing infrastructure spending or not is the Treasury Crown Accounts for the latest month. That shows commitments are down nearly $3 billion from last year.

The other document to check is Budget 2025’s Economic & Fiscal Outlook (page 53), showing falling capital investment over the next four years.

Further reading: RNZ: Govt accused of recycling projects in $6b infrastructure push

Quote of the day: Key tells RBNZ to cut

“Interest rates are too high. I don’t want to sound like Donald Trump telling off Jerome Powell but they should be 100 basis points lower. You could argue there’s inflation. But, seriously, there might be a little bit of food inflation, but it’s very little. Fuel inflation isn’t much. And there’s certainly no wage inflation. And even if there was, I’d trade a bit of inflation to get the place going.” John Key via Chris Keall for NZ Herald: Why John Key believes interest rates are stifling NZ growth

Number of the day: 40 people apply for each job

40 to 1 - Rob Stock for The Post-$:At least 20,000 people applied for 500 jobs at Ikea’s soon-to-open Auckland store.

Chart of the day: GDP contracting again

My Pick ’n’ Mix Sixes for Monday, July 21

Politics

* 1News: 'Many' link Govt's emergency housing policy to homelessness rise - minister.

* Jamie Ensor for NZ Herald-$: Damning NCEA briefing raises alarm as Govt mulls future of national qualification

* Todd Niall for Newsroom: Auckland mayor’s top executive liquidating personal firm owing $570k

* Davina Zimmer for Newsroom/The Detail: The Ministry of Health's alcohol problem

* NZ Herald: MP who oversaw Treaty Principles select committee wants fresh look at public submissions process

* Deep-dive by Phil Smith for RNZ’s The House: Parliament versus Executive: Regs Review and the Regulatory Standards Bill

Economy & Business

* Andrew Bevin for Newsroom: A former fisheries observer, who spent 12 days in fear for his life after turning down a bribe, believes cameras need to be put on deep sea vessels to avoid a repeat

* Tom Pullar Strecker for The Post-$: Government cools supermarket competition expectations. Willis says “we have to be realistic”

* Solutions column by Simplicity CEO Sam Stubbs for The Sunday Star Times-$: Should banks pay windfall taxes? Increasingly, I think “yes”.

* Column by Thomas Coughlan for NZ Herald-$:Government ponders radical power reforms as prices rise

* Explainer by Nik Dirga for RNZ: Why New Zealand First wants to require businesses to accept cash

* Liam Rātana for The Spinoff: We keep measuring the Māori economy – but what are we actually counting?

Housing, Infrastructure & Councils

* Caroline Williams for Stuff: Million-dollar mud: $13m spent on flood-damaged homes in sought after Auckland suburb

* Tom Raynel for NZ Herald-$: Nick Mowbray's vision for cut-price homes - and when company could launch

* Op-Ed by Paula Southgate for The Waikato Times-$: Hamilton’s booming — but rates are rising and funding’s broken. Can we afford the city we’re becoming?

* Michael Daly for Stuff: Why this MP wants a new law to ‘hold boarding house landlords accountable’

* Mildred Armah for Stuff: ‘We’re a very straight flat’: Queer migrant on house-hunting struggles

* Russell Palmer for RNZ: Govt move to scrap 'four wellbeings' could undermine council stability - officials warn

Poverty & health

* RNZ: Christchurch Hospital asks patients' families to help cover short staffing

* RNZ: The Stolen Children of Aotearoa uncovers chilling history

* RNZ: Will Working for Families changes leave people worse off?

* NZ Herald: Financial mentors warn of $300m debt risk in family payment changes

* Jimmy Ellingham for RNZ Checkpoint: Taupō clinicians plan for emergency hospital shutdown amid critical staff shortages

* Ayla Yeoman for SunLive: Doctors alarmed by whooping cough surge

Climate

* Morgan Edwards for his substack New Economic Management : NZ’s alarming new climate adaptation framework is alarming and morally reprehensible

* RNZ: ECan chair rebuffs government's directive to stop planning

* Marty Sharpe for Stuff: Nondescript paddocks home to a few sheep soon to house $50m solar farm

* Alexia Russell for Newsroom/The Detail: Real people, real lives, right now - the reality of climate change

* Katy Jones for The Nelson Mail-$: Council can’t engineer flood risk away, riverside landowners told

* Hawkes Bay Today: Sensors for real-time flood alerts installed

Docs of the day

* Housing and Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop’s statement: Infrastructure projects to drive jobs and growth

* Retirement Commission: Qualitative and quantitative research with more than 1,450 New Zealanders aged 65 and over, Older People’s Voices 2024 Part 2, explores income, decumulation behaviour and expenditure in older age.

* Video via RNZ: Watch: Govt trumpets billions being spent on infrastructure

Cartoon of the day: Where did you go?

Timeline-cleansing nature pic

Ka kite ano, Bernard

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