Looking to the US, Salesforce and C3.ai results show positive momentum for AI, as of course do Nvidia’s. But investors are asking more questions and AI vs. Economic Downturn is a match that’s difficult to call.

Ian is more immediately concerned about the impact of US government actions to curtail sales into China by Cadence, Synopsis and Siemens EDA – companies which, like ASML and TSMC, you really need to understand to truly get tech.

George and Ian ponder the Pensions Investment Review. Only serious AIM/small-cap Kool-Aid imbibers would have hoped for much, so AIM/Aquis ranking on a par with a theme park near Bedford is perhaps a result.

Directing money to infrastructure/tech direct impact is an easier sell to the party/public than bailing out UK public equities.

Consider those who look upon it from the outside. This is a government that is trying to do something to stimulate growth. Something that could, or even should, be seen as a positive development.

To outsiders the failings of UK public equities and small-cap / AIM in particular are all too evident and have been for quite some time. It’s widely recognised as a market and regulatory structure that does not work as it should for investors or companies. Perhaps that needs changing to get Rachel Reeves onside.

Grabbing the segue across to a market that has seen success on AIM, George highlights recent gaming sector newsflow and the potential for patient investors to gain from its returning health.

It has been some 15 months since they last spoke, a time when Rishi Sunak was Prime Minister and Joe Biden was President.

Much has happened subsequently in areas of energy policy, energy markets, politics, and global trade and conflict. And I was keen to catch up.

Doomberg utilises his expertise in understanding our fundamental and complex energy requirements and how they impact the broader macro and geopolitical landscape. And, as usual, he does not pull any punches in his well-reasoned views.

The pair discuss the rise of populism and the long-term outlook for energy supply and demand. In particular, how the additive energy requirements of AI might counterintuitively lead to much lower oil prices. It’s all to do with the unique economics of US shale and AI’s enormous demand for US natural gas.

Doomberg also offers a no-holds-barred view of the outlook for post-Ukraine war Europe, including the need for political realignment and an explanation of why sanctions fail.

Louis Hall, CEO

Andrew Dickson, CFO

Louis Hall, CEO

17:10 Q&A

Cerillion has a 25-year track record in providing mission-critical software for billing, charging and customer relationship management ("CRM"), mainly to the telecommunications sector but also to other markets, including utilities and financial services. The Company has c. 80 customer installations across c. 45 countries.

Headquartered in London, Cerillion also has operations in India and Bulgaria as well as a sales presence in the USA, Singapore and Australia.

The business was originally part of Logica plc before its management buyout, led by CEO, Louis Hall, in 1999. The Company joined AIM in March 2016.

Find out more about the company here.

After Joe exited the company that bought his sporting odds business last year, a friend invited him on a weekend away. Each guest had to prepare a short talk to lead a discussion on a topic of their choice. Joe chose Bitcoin; it was his passion and his specialist subject.

However, it's a big subject and he didn’t know where to start. So, assuming no prior knowledge, he told a story explaining why Bitcoin exists and what it fixes. He called his presentation, “What’s the Problem?," and Bitcoin was deliberately not mentioned until the last slide.

The success of his pitch encouraged him to make a video, and earlier this year, Joe launched What’s The Problem? on YouTube and X.

The film tells the story of two identical countries with perfect economies and perfect money, save for the existence of a big red button only for use in case of emergency in the country run by Fiatello.

For the avoidance of doubt, the big red button equates to a central bank and today’s monetary policy. In so doing, Joe explains the wide range of common societal problems that stem from fiat money. These include loss of trust, obesity, family breakdowns, addiction, wealth inequality, and, of course, inflation.

Joe leads his audience to the door of the Bitcoin rabbit hole. He wants to spread the word because, as he sees it, Bitcoin is inevitable; everyone will find it in their own time, but eventually everyone will get drawn in, and they will own it at their own price.

Joe is a Bitcoin Maximalist who points to the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve as evidence that there is no stopping this train.

Of course, he could be wrong, and as always, what you are about to hear is not investment or any other type of advice. It is for your critical evaluation and is only for your information and entertainment. Always do your own research and take professional advice tailored to your own requirements before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.

Meanwhile, Japan's manufacturing prowess is under attack from China, its biggest competitor and from the US, its largest customer. The fact that Japan holds over a trillion dollars of US Treasury debt is a card to consider in its trade talks with the US.

Meanwhile, Trump's tariffs have encountered a judicial roadblock, causing a sharp recovery in risk assets. However, this was not so helpful for bond markets, where investors had hoped that tariffs might plug some of the fiscal hole left by Trump's Big Beautiful Bill.

In the UK, Rachel Reeves has signaled her intention to term forward its debt, increasing her interest rate exposure but lowering her short-term funding costs. Additionally, the IMF is offering air cover for her to bend her unbendable fiscal rules. A treat not afforded to her predecessors. Watch out for the spending spigots to turn fully on.

The takeaway is that long-term global inflation expectations are out of the bottle, the bond market term premia hares are running, and there is a return to the old idea of outrunning the looming debt crisis. This raises the risk of monetary debasement, which should be beneficial for Bitcoin, gold, and (selectively) equities.

Gareth covers updates from Beeks, and Watkins Jones.

Looking ahead, it's jobs week in the US. We get EA inflation data and the ECB rate decision. Additionally, confirmation that the economy slowed sharply in Q1 could raise concerns about the potential for a recession in the US.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

Gamma’s AGM statement contained comments in the UK market that led to a share price fall, although the progress in Germany is something that the market should not ignore.

Tech and defence is discussed – George and Ian reflect on the spoof potential, surely not!

UK stocks discussed include ZOO Digital and Van Elle, and Jeremy describes the divergent outcomes for Alpha Group and Argentex...two payments/FX trading platforms who have had their resilience tested in recent years, with wildly different results.

Next week will see UK unemployment and GDP data, with US retail sales, inflation and consumer sentiment...watch for an angry Trump.

The UK small-cap space is delivering strong performance from stocks able to deliver not-worsening performance...we discuss Watkin Jones, Sanderson Design Group and IG Design as well as global shipping heavyweight Clarkson.

Jeremy highlights that lower energy prices could help pressure Putin towards peace, as well as potentially saving Labour's bacon - if they can wean themselves off Net Zero....

Next week is all about interest rate decisions...Trump vs Powell back in the headlines.

David is widely regarded for his deep understanding of risk and for delivering his insights in a highly engaging and entertaining manner.

He dedicates his time to analysing sources of risk and developing strategies designed to mitigate their impact. His approach involves embracing convexity—purchasing pockets of inexpensive volatility as a form of insurance against adverse outcomes in uncertain environments.

When should investors adopt this strategy? According to David, the answer is simple: always—just like insuring a house.

David holds strong and often contrarian views that challenge the foundational assumptions of Modern Portfolio Theory, which he refers to as "Sharpe World." In his view, this framework wrongly equates risk with volatility.

He brings these ideas to life through vivid anecdotes and illustrative examples that highlight the risks investors unknowingly take in markets shaped by Sharpe World principles and operated by what he calls "Rational Accounting Man."

IBM’s figures get George pondering the differing paths with AI for software vs IT professional services. He highlights the Asian IT services area, where growth is notably better than in the EU or North America, before looking at results from ActiveOps, GB Group and iOmart.

Ian comments on Oxford Metrics’ in-line update, Northcoders, and then Tracsis, where investors who bought into an earnings growth and digitalisation story have to work out where the UK rail system is now heading.

Ian eulogises about the Stanford AI report. It provides some encouraging data for UK tech proponents and provides insight into how AI is actually being used and what limited gains AI provides.

George focuses on the AI benchmarks issue – are they meaningful? Which leads Ian to question, given the huge scale and nature of many AI projects, whether any of the returns and benefits data that everyone craves is going to be valid.