In the last episode of 2025, Progressive's Gareth Evans and Jeremy McKeown discuss the significant events of the week, including volatile equities, what precious metals prices are telling us, and the ups and downs of oil prices, with the US Navy on patrol offshore of Venezuela. 

There has been a data dump of macro numbers and rate decisions, and an important decision by Europe's leaders not to seize frozen Russian assets.

Overall, the critical question for investors in 2026 is whether central banks have done enough to tame inflation and pave the way for lower rates. Jeremy again highlights Japan as a source of risk to the bullish scenario.

Next week will be quiet, but always worth noting who might be sneaking out RNS's last thing on Christmas Eve.

Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discuss the main events of the last week in financial markets.

The primary focus is on the mixed messaging from the Federal Reserve with its interest rate decision described as a hawkish cut. Jeremy describes how we might interpret this move, which is now signalling only one further rate cut in 2026.

Kevin "The Real Asset" Hassett is widely expected to be announced as Jay Powell's successor in January. Further, this has also been widely interpreted as allowing inflation expectations to run wild, thereby impacting the prices of gold and silver.

However, the Fed decision makers are also looking at their responsibilities for employment and the functioning of financial markets. To this end, you might be mistaken that they have restarted QE. The move to inject liquidity into the short-term money markets might not be strictly QE, but it does expand the Fed's balance sheet, at least in the short term.

Jeremy points to Japan as the source of the market dysfunction that policymakers might be preempting via this (temporary) injection.

In US megacap land, news comes of a $1.5 trillion IPO for SpaceX, and a busy week for the Ellison family. Larry Ellison's Oracle highlighted the risks around the AI data centre build-out, but also his son and other high-profile backers were behind the $108bn hostile bid for Warner Bros.

Jeremy highlights the precedent for such giant hostile bids, and it is an interesting list! Surely nothing to see here.

Looking ahead, there will be further evidence next week of the weakening US jobs market.

The events in Venezuela and the Ukraine peace process will also be centre stage.

Cerillion CEO, Louis Hall and CFO, Andrew Dickson, present the company's results for the 12 months ended 30 September 2025, followed by Q&A.

Louis Hall, CEO
00:16 Introduction
00:32 About Cerillion
01:38 Product Delivery Model
03:04 BSS/OSS Market Size
04:07 FY2025 Highlights
11:20 Competitive Landscape

Andrew Dickson, CFO
12:45 2025 KPIs
17:13 2025 Financial Highlights
18:41 Cash Generation
20:10 Income Statement
20:56 Balance Sheet

Louis Hall, CEO
21:26 New Logo Sales Pipeline, New Orders and Back-Order
22:06 Summary & Outlook

22:30 Q&A

Cerillion has a 26-year track record in providing mission-critical software for billing, charging and customer relationship management ("CRM"), mainly to the telecommunications sector but also to other markets, including utilities and financial services. The Company has c.70 customer installations across c. 45 countries.

Headquartered in London, Cerillion also has operations in India and Bulgaria as well as a sales presence in the USA, Singapore and Australia.

The business was originally part of Logica plc before its management buyout, led by CEO, Louis Hall, in 1999. The Company joined AIM in March 2016. 

www.cerillion.com

This week Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discuss mainly the apparent confusion of bitcoin falling while other “inflation hedge” or “real asset” measures like gold and silver are at or close to all-time highs.  Jeremy has four or five reasons why this might be the case - all of which highlight the usefulness of bitcoin’s “always on” trading 24/7 as a barometer or investor opinion.

Macro markets have helped Rachel Reeves avoid short-term repercussions of the Budget. 

Next week’s Fed rate decision may be overshadowed by gyrations around the potential seizure of Russian monies - and what that means for the value of the dollar in the eyes of anyone who might one day upset the West.

IG Design Group Interim Executive Chair, Stewart Gilliland and CFO, Rohan Cummings, present the group's results for the six months ended 30 September 2025, followed by Q&A.

Stewart Gilliland, Interim Executive Chair
00:16 Introduction
01:18 HY2026 Summary

Rohan Cummings, CFO
02:22 Group Revenue
03:18 Adjusted Operating Profit
04:27 Segmental Performance
07:27 Financial Summary
09:25 Cash Flow

Stewart Gilliland, Interim Executive Chair
10:51 The Group Today
12:42 Design Group Europe
14:05 Design Group UK
15:49 Design Group Australia

Rohan Cummings, CFO
16:59 Guidance

Stewart Gilliland, Interim Executive Chair
17:50 Long-term Growth Drivers
19:32 Case Study
20:13 ESG
21:16 Outlook

22:00 Q&A

IG Design Group plc is a leading designer, innovator and manufacturer across various celebration and creative categories.

For further information please visit www.thedesigngroup.com.

This week Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discuss mainly the apparent confusion of bitcoin falling while other “inflation hedge” or “real asset” measures like gold and silver are at or close to all-time highs.  Jeremy has four or five reasons why this might be the case - all of which highlight the usefulness of bitcoin’s “always on” trading 24/7 as a barometer or investor opinion.

Macro markets have helped Rachel Reeves avoid short-term repercussions of the Budget. 

Next week’s Fed rate decision may be overshadowed by gyrations around the potential seizure of Russian monies - and what that means for the value of the dollar in the eyes of anyone who might one day upset the West.

Progressive’s Jeremy McKeown visited Buenos Aires last November to understand the early impact of President Javier Milei’s election, guided in part by insights from Jeffrey Stout, a US-born businessman whose pro-Milei perspective stood out during Jeremy’s research. A year on, with midterms complete, Jeremy reconnects with Jeffrey to reflect on what has changed and how Argentina’s trajectory now looks.

Jeremy visited Buenos Aires in November last year, wanting to see firsthand what was going on under the newly elected President, Javier Milei. He met some fascinating people who shared their stories and perspectives on the Milei Revolution.

As he was researching an article about his visit, he read some early accounts of the rise of Milei and the stories told about him in 2022 and early 2023.

In the readers’ comments section under a rather scathing article about him in the Buenos Aires Times, there was a short but forthright comment that explained why the reader thought Milei was likely to win the Presidency. It was from a reader named Jeffrey Stout, who seemed to be a lone voice in the comments section, taking this counter view.

Jeffrey, a successful businessman and US citizen, knew what he was talking about, and he kindly spent a couple of hours helping understand a few fundamentals of how things worked, or most often didn’t work, in his adopted country.

12 months on, with the midterms out of the way, Jeremy reconnected with Jeffrey for an update on what had happened over the year since they met, and how he sees things shaping up.

On the 27th of November, Progressive's Jeremy McKeown had the good fortune to speak with Simon French, Head of Research at Panmure Liberum, and Thomas Moore, Senior Investment Director at Aberdeen, to discuss the UK Budget and its implications.

Simon, who writes a regular column in the Times, is a go-to person on the UK economy, and Thomas is steeped in experience and understanding of the value and income attractions of UK equities, with a long and successful track record of managing the Aberdeen Equity Income Trust.

They had a great chat and distinguished the essential differences between the UK economy and the UK market. But also at the risk of mansplaining, they also identified what more needs to be done for the UK economy to deliver growth and, importantly, to make UK assets more attractive to global capital.

Please enjoy Jeremy's conversation with Simon French and Thomas Moore.

Progressive's Ian Robertson and George O'Connor wish ChatGPT a Happy Birthday before cantering through recent UK small tech updates.
 
ActiveOps – going well, but could short-term brokers and metric-obsessed fund managers stop this little gem from reaching its full potential
 
Cerillion – a pause for breath, year, still well positioned, cash generative with excellent margins
 
GBG – it is going to be hard work, but the management looks to be up to the challenge
 
Then, looking to Autodesk, George considers changing charging / accounting models when faced with AI and difficult wider economics – doesn’t the market see right through this?

As Americans took a break to overindulge on Thanksgiving, we Brits were forced to listen to our government explain how they had overindulged recently and how we must now pay for it. This week, Progressive's three wise men mansplain the Budget and its implications.

Jeremy and Gareth are joined by Progressive building and construction analyst and Property Week columnist, Alastair Stewart, to offer his views on the likely impact on the UK housing and housebuilding markets following Rachel Reeves' second Budget. Spoiler alert, he's bullish.

Looking ahead, Jeremy expects an easing of financial conditions from the US as, among other things, the White House considers ways to improve the Republicans' chances in next year's Congressional midterms.