This week, Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans debate Trump's ongoing attacks on the US Fed...perhaps Powell is rolling over, but the recently "sacked" board member Lisa Cook is not.  The dollar fell and long bond yields rose, but not by much.  France is showing renewed (and traditional) political risk, and the landscape across Europe feels pressured.  The UK is once again facing an Autumn of Worry as the budget's tax-more-or-spend-less balancing act seems destined to repeat last year's wheel of fortune on which part of the economy will bear the brunt of new taxes. 
 
In the absence of much small-cap news, the pair consider the misfortunes of Drax, the former coal-fired power generation group, now reinvented doing the "green thing" of burning wood pellets to produce electricity.  This week saw news that the FCA is investigating the veracity of some of the their historic claims around the source of these pellets (Drax claims they're mainly "off-cuts" of wood that's already being logged).  Whether or not there's an issue, it is possible that the attention might focus minds on the genuine green credentials of shipping wood across the Atlantic to burn it, and then claiming that by capturing the carbon released and then burying it, the whole process is "carbon negative".  More broadly, some governments are actively against the renewables agenda, and others actively can't afford it. 
 
Next week we get the excitement of US jobs data - Trump wants data weak enough to prompt a big interest rate cut, but not weak enough to look like a recession. Whoever's in charge of "deciding" the number better tread a careful line, or they might join the jobless stats for the following months.

This week, Progressive's Jeremy McKeown talks to The Brawl Street Journal, a source that posts on “second-order thinking on Europe’s markets, energy, and the collision between regulation and reality.”

The man behind this blog holds a PhD in international economic law, with a background in World Trade Organisation (remember them?) dispute settlements, and has worked with an international law firm. 

He also advised banking clients on sanctions law following Russia’s invasion of Crimea. 

He then worked in various economic and regulatory roles within Germany’s civil service, giving him a front-row seat on how subsidies, regulations, and political priorities work in practice. 

The Brawl Street Journal was launched last year to help investors question the consensus, which its creator believes has been infiltrated by propaganda, as defined by the French sociologist Jacques Ellul, who wrote a book of that name in the 1960s. 

The pair discuss how propaganda is often an emergent phenomenon of well-intentioned people, rather than the simplistic, malign, authoritarian means of control we usually envision. 

They also discuss how net zero has become one of several propaganda myths of the established European consensus that have weakened the EU and wider European economies. 

They also talk about the potential for a net-zero-induced crisis, similar to the global financial crisis and what the prospects might be for Europe to avoid this outcome. 

With that, please enjoy Jeremy's conversation with the maverick behind The Brawl Street Journal.

This week has been relatively quiet. Progressive's Gareth Evans and Jeremy McKeown discuss the prospects for peace in Europe, the not quite so bad news, but still not good news, about the UK economy and our public finances.

UK inflation and the long end of the gilt market both look like they might be getting out of control. UK inflation has now been above target for 49 out of the last 51 reports. Not conventionally a scenario in which to cut rates, unless, of course, it is transitory.

Jeremy talks about the significance of Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole and asks whether he is prepared to die on the hill of inflation and central bank independence.

Gareth then highlights the dramatic warning and share price reaction from WHSmith this week and its potential implications.

Progressive's Jeremy McKeown recently spoke to Charlie Morris, an investor, entrepreneur, and advocate for hard assets.

Charlie has 27 years of experience in fund management, with a reputation for actively managing multi-asset portfolios.

Charlie was previously the Head of Absolute Return at HSBC Global Asset Management, where he managed $3bn of assets.

He writes research for private clients, providing actionable model portfolios that cover equities, bonds, commodities, and other alternative assets.

Having discovered gold in the early 2000s, Charlie was an early entrant into the Bitcoin rabbit hole. In 2013, Charlie founded ByteTree, which he initially intended to be the “Bloomberg for Bitcoin”.

However, he was unable to find a workable revenue model. With start-ups, being early is just another way of being wrong.

In 2022, he launched a Bitcoin and gold ETF (BOLD SW). A fund that remains unauthorised in the UK, albeit available to sophisticated investors on other European exchanges.

As Charlie says, he developed BOLD as a new take on the traditional 60:40 portfolio.

He identified a valuable low level of correlation between its constituents, Bitcoin and gold, which he has exploited to deliver impressive results.

Towards the end of this chat, Jeremy and Charlie trade thoughts on the latest UK microcap craze for Bitcoin treasury companies, which Charlie believes is unsustainable and just the result of regulatory arbitrage.

With that, please enjoy Jeremy's conversation with the maverick, Charlie Morris.

In their usual weekly chat, Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans cover the macro market news and events with a few thoughts on what it all means.

While the UK reporting season is a bit dull, the US Q2 reports have been more positive. There is a long wait for the Autumn Budget in the UK, and many companies are likely to face a long wait for the inevitable tax increases. Lots of comments out there about gambling taxes, IHT and maybe VAT increases.

Overall, the UK economic news this week has been poor but not calamitous.

Equity markets are moving to all-time highs, with powerful rallies seen from the early April lows, particularly in the US.

Maybe investors are looking ahead to a period of policy easing. However, in bond markets, the message is more mixed. Will the Fed cut rates next month? A stronger-than-expected US PPI print for July indicates that tariff-induced inflation might be on the way, giving Powell a reason, or excuse, to keep rates on hold.

There is a setup for a big showdown between the White House and the Fed. If Powell is focused on his legacy, then he might want to go out as the man who stood up to Trump and defended the economy from inflation, as Paul Volcker rather than Arthur Burns.

Gareth covers the updates from Xaar and Zoo Digital. Jeremy highlights the warning from Shoe Zone and suggests the shares might have overreacted to the news. Almost certainly meaning there is worse to come!

Looking ahead, next week, there is UK inflation data, which might increase to 4%. So, it’s not the typical environment in which to cut rates.

We also have Japan’s inflation data, which is expected to remain at a tricky 3.3%.

The main event is likely to be the outcome of the talks in Alaska. Will Trump and Putin move the lines on the map of Europe?

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

Progressive's George O'Connor and Ian Robertson catch up on US giants results, reflecting on very different approaches and perhaps outlooks, before considering whether the IPO noise is consistent with the share price performance of UK tech stocks.

Microsoft – AI reality, talk of returns on its own investment on AI but no real idea on those of its customers. George argues that it’s the best placed and bemoans the lowly valuation.

Meta – it’s worth listening to the call just as reminder of how different the mindset and culture is to Microsoft, Nvidia, Google and Amazon.

This leads onto what is AI 2.0: What business will be built on top of the cold AI servers? What’s next for search? Perhaps we will see Zuckerberg’s virtual dreams becoming a reality.

Back to the reality of the UK market and how the FTSE 100 rise contrasts with the UK small cap tech share price declines. Just how strong is the underlying local demand for new IPOs at full tech prices?

Is China investable? If so, how do you go about it? What are the basic ground rules?

Recently, Progressive's Jeremy McKeown spoke to an American fund manager living in the UK whose life has been intertwined with China since he was a young boy.

Rufus Frazier of Variis Partners has a long career investing in emerging markets, and he believes China offers some of the best investment opportunities available anywhere in the world.

In a fascinating discussion, they cover the macro backdrop to China and the perceived risks, such as the Taiwan issue, property rights and the historically poor returns from Chinese equities over the last couple of decades, when its economic growth has been so strong. What are we missing about this disconnect, and why might this be changing?

Rufus explains why the scale and structure of China’s market makes stock picking essential, he talks about the things to look for as well as the sectors and stocks to avoid.

For example, China’s Uber, Didi, seems fine, but its huge battery manufacturer with a dominant global market position, CATL, is more problematic.

Finally, Rufus puts the opportunity for Chinese equities into its broader EM context. Where are the other “hot” emerging markets? In his view, mainly in Latin America and Southeast Asia.

And with that, please enjoy Jeremy's conversation with the maverick, Rufus Frazier.

Gareth and Jeremy discuss macroeconomic developments and how they might impact financial markets.

Plenty of noise around tariffs still, and still difficult to determine any signal. Meanwhile, the Fed and the BoE have both had contentious rate-setting meetings, highlighting the unprecedented way in which like-minded policymakers have differing views about the future path of monetary policy.

Jeremy questions whether we are seeing the end of the era of central bank global orthodoxy. There will be much chat at Jackson Hole about the existential threats to central bank independence and their ability to operate under the auspices of their increasingly fiscally challenged political masters.

Meanwhile, US company reporting is more positive than the newsflow from the UK, although equity markets are grinding higher on stronger capital flows.

On this point, Gareth mentions the divergent fortunes of Sanderson Design, which updated this week, in the US and the UK.

Looking ahead, we can expect a UK unemployment report, which is not likely to be encouraging for Rachel Reeves; US inflation data that is likely to confirm an ongoing rise in the core measure; and a UK Q2 GDP print, again, which might signal bad news for Rachel.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.  

This week, Jeremy and Gareth talk Turnberry and trade deals - with a backdrop of some tech titans' Q2 earnings reports with such strong results that "American Exceptionalism" seems as strong as ever.  The anticipated dispersion of capital to other venues will have to wait, as AI spend dominates and American giants are mainly the beneficiaries. 

The US FOMC decision (to leave rates unchanged) allowed Jay Powell to highlight that the credibility of the Fed relies on his ability to not bow to political pressure - highlighting that risks lie in both directions.  Jeremy's comment is that reduced rates could let the genie out of the bottle, with inflation expectations significantly heightened and permanently elevated. If the US is run like an emerging market, it could well end up with emerging market inflation - and interest rates - with major implications for all of us.  Meanwhile, Scott Bessant is looking to stablecoin mechanisms and untapped bank liquidity/leverage to help plug the gap in demand for US treasuries... 

Next month sees the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers - but next week we have the UK MPC interest rate decision.  Markets are expecting a 25 basis point cut - but Jeremy cautions that the UK doesn't often like to jump the gun on rate moves, so the US "hold" this week might spell trouble for those expectations. 

Gareth talks about Progressive clients STV, IG Design Group, Forterra and SDI Group, and Jeremy highlights the strength of the UK market, buoyed partly by bid activity - with £3bn of incoming capital for IPF and Just Group, both of which saw takeover announcements.

Looking to the next week, US non-farm payroll data will show how the economy is coping with both tariff impacts and the changed migration dynamics in the US job market.  US PMI and UK rate decisions are due next week, but the main event is still likely to be Trump-related, whether and how much he provokes genuine and material trade wars with China, Canada, Mexico, Brazil...or others ! 

 
Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

IG Design Group Interim Executive Chair, Stewart Gilliland and Chief Financial Officer Rohan Cummings present the group's results for the year ended 31 March 2025.

00:00 - Opener

Stewart Gilliland, Interim Executive Chair
00:16 Introduction
02:48 FY2025 Summary

Rohan Cummings, Chief Financial Officer
04:16 DG Americas FY2025 performance
06:32 DG Americas Divestment
08:52 DG International FY2025 performance
10:22 Group Revenue
11:30 Adjusted Operating Profit
12:33 Financial Summary
14:28 Cash flow

Stewart Gilliland, Interim Executive Chair
16:04 The Group Today

Rohan Cummings, Chief Financial Officer
17:55 Pro-forma Group
19:17 Reinstating Guidance

Stewart Gilliland, Interim Executive Chair
21:05 Outlook
22:14 Investment Case

22:36 Q&A

IG Design Group plc, the largest consumer gift packaging business in the world, is a designer, innovator and manufacturer of products that help people celebrate life's special occasions. Design Group works with more than 11,000 customers in over 80 countries throughout the UK, Europe, Australia and the USA.

Its products are found in over 210,000 retail outlets, including several of the world's biggest retailers, for example Walmart, Target, Amazon, Costco, Lidl and Aldi.

Its five major product categories are: Celebrations, Craft, Stationery and Creative Play, Gifting, and Not-for-resale consumables. It offers customers a full end-to-end service from design through to distribution, offering both branded and bespoke products from the value-focused through to the higher-margin ends of the market.

For further information please visit www.thedesigngroup.com.