Companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI have generated enormous excitement ahead of their public offerings, but does buying into a headline-grabbing IPO actually provide the opportunity many investors expect?
This week, Steve Laska and Matt Gomoll break down how modern IPOs differ from those of the past. They explain concepts like share float, lock-up periods, and index inclusion, showing how these factors can influence early price movements and why some institutional investors approach IPOs very differently than individual investors.
The conversation also explores why many of today’s largest companies stay private far longer than previous generations, allowing much of their growth to accrue to venture capital and private equity investors before public shareholders ever have an opportunity to invest. Along the way, Steve and Matt discuss the unique challenges facing future AI IPOs, the risks of chasing early excitement, and why investors should focus on long-term outcomes rather than short-term market enthusiasm.
(00:00) Introduction
(00:23) Why SpaceX’s IPO is different from traditional public offerings
(02:35) What share float means and why it affects IPO pricing
(05:45) How index funds and institutional investors influence IPO demand
(07:18) The risks of chasing IPO excitement
(08:30) Why private equity and venture capital often capture the biggest gains
(11:15) Why trillion-dollar IPOs have different return expectations
(14:28) The investment case for AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI
(17:16) Profitability, business models, and long-term valuation risks
(20:56) Why Elon Musk may be the exception—not the rule
(23:49) Venture capital versus buying at the IPO
A successful IPO doesn’t guarantee outsized future returns.
Understanding share float helps explain IPO volatility.
Private markets increasingly capture the biggest growth opportunities.
AI companies present unique opportunities—and unique risks.
Long-term investors should focus on outcomes, not excitement.Learn more: https://trillium-wealth.com/
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Steve on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/steve-laska-a3bb195/
Matt on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mattgomoll/
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