Episode 47: Marketplace Trends

Given that I have been building and investing in marketplaces for 26 years you might think that everything that needed to be built has already been built, but nothing could be further from the truth. In many ways, we are still at the beginning of the marketplace revolution with lots of exciting new trends.

In this episode, I cover: 

• Cross border commerce.
• Live commerce.
• New goods verticals supported by service layers.
• High take rate business models based on convenience.
• Climate tech.
• AI enabled marketplaces.
• B2B marketplaces:
  • Marketplace for inputs.
  • SMB enablement.
  • Friendshoring.
  • B2B labor marketplaces.
  • Business infrastructure.
  • B2B recommerce.

The episode was highly interactive with dozens of audience questions. Here are some of the questions that I answered:

• What types of marketplaces can function in real estate?
• What are the valuation multiples I am seeing at investment and exit?
• What is the best platform to build a marketplace on?

While AI investing continues to reach new highs, we have been contrarian. Given how non-consensus we are, I wanted to share our thoughts and perspective. 

In this episode, I cover:

• The general state of venture.
• The explosion in AI investing. 
• The varying fortunes of AI startups.
• FJ Labs’ perspective on AI.
• FJ Labs’ AI investments. 

The episode was highly interactive with dozens of audience questions. Here are some of the questions that I answered:

• How is AI impacting sports, especially tennis from an entertainment and industry standpoint?
• How are you utilizing AI in your personal life to improve your processes? Which tools?
• What is your recommendation towards founders or technology enthusiasts about AI that want to explore technological solutions using AI or find funding?
• How will AI help secondhand fashion marketplaces?
• How will labor marketplaces be impacted by AI?
• How will AI impact the media industry?
• What is my perspective on how AI and AR will be combined to create better experiences?
• What are examples of picks and shovels companies we are investing in to benefit from the AI boom?
• How to address sellers’ fears that AI will make it harder for them to compete effectively with other sellers in the marketplace?
• Which roles will be most impacted by AI? Will it cause mass unemployment?
• Will AI amplify the best or worst traits of humanity?
• How will AI impact healthcare and education?
• What should startups focus on in terms of implementing AI: customer service, product search or other? 

I had not done an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session in over a year which led to many questions on a wide variety of topics: AI, augmented reality, crypto, macro and much more.

Here are the key questions we covered:

• 00:01:44 Artificial Intelligence: Where are we now? Where are we heading? What is the timeline? Why is FJ Labs a way contrarian on the AI trend?

• 00:09:42 What's your perspective on augmented reality? Is the Apple Vision Pro a revolution? And what is the timing for that to filter into our day-to-day life?

• 00:15:28 What was the fundamental inspiration for me to start OLX?

• 00:20:45 Can you give us some context or details on Midas?

• 00:23:15 Is there any way for a small retail investor to invest in early financing rounds for startups? If yes, how?

• 00:24:44 At for pre-seed rounds, what should be the GMV to get your attention? Let's say a new marketplace. What GMV would be impressive in the first month, six months, and one year?

• 00:25:39 What do I expect to see at the seed round?

• 00:26:41 What’s the correct take rate?

• 00:27:56 What are my current perspectives on the crypto market?

• 00:34:43 Does FJ Labs have an activist approach when investing in startups? How are you supporting the founders?

• 00:38:03 Is there going to be a fiat currency crisis where the dollar will be replaced? Will something like BTC become the reserve currency?

• 00:41:18 Have you decided on your next adventure for outdoor travel that you'd like to tackle?

• 00:43:11 I've heard that a startup should recoup their fully loaded Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) within 6 months based on the contribution margin and then triple that amount within 18 months. Could you confirm if these numbers are accurate?

• 00:44:30 What should the first 3-6 months of a new startup look like? Talk to potential customers? Generate demand? Build a prototype? Validate hypotheses? Etc.

• 00:46:33 Does FJ Labs have an anti-portfolio?

• 00:50:28 Do you have any thoughts on the longevity industry? Do you think platforms like Hims or Ro will evolve in that direction, or will there be a new player?

• 00:53:33 I’ve listed things that I heard you consider when rating a startup. (1.) Team (2.) Unit Economics, significant TAM (3.) Fair deal terms, reasonable valuation, (4.) is it beneficial to the world, aligning the general direction of global trends, offering new opportunities to those with fewer opportunities. Is there anything else?

• 00:55:02 What build did I play at Elden Ring?

• 00:56:00 Did you have any mentor in your angel investor career? If yes, who is it? And how does the person help you?

• 00:58:49 Are you tempted to invest in AI?

• 01:00:08 What’s the most overused buzzword that you can't stand?

• 01:00:37 What valuation of a company is risky, yet a bit safe and worth the squeeze?

• 01:01:27 Any particular places or people you prefer to keep up with your bio health updates?

• 01:02:38 What is a surprisingly cheap and effective marketing channels?

• 01:03:50 As an investor, doesn't make sense to look for opportunities other than AI even though AI is “hot” now?

• 01:05:53 What are the most incredible business opportunities you have seen in preventative health lately?

• 01:07:04 Can you name successful blockchain based marketplaces that work with goods other than NFTs?

•01:11:39 Regarding Firgure.ai, when, in your opinion will we see humanoid robots in our daily lives? 3 years? 5 years? 20 years?

•01:14:15 Do you think asteroid mining is an industry that will become feasible or profitable within our lifetime?

• 01:16:08 We continue to see economic sentiment down, given the cost of money felt by consumers. Curious, given how you feel, especially the dire US consumers in Macroeconomic update where you see bright falls, bright spots in the landscape?

• 01:19:35 Whom do you think had the most impact on your investing thesis?

• 01:21:16 Is there something you've seen in recent startup pitches that you think the general public should know?

• 01:23:00 When it comes to crypto, how game changing do you consider the ETFs to be going forward?

• 01:24:22 What is the ideal number of founders per startup? Two, with one being technically oriented the other more focused on people and sales?

• 01:25:43 What are the most important skills that students should develop in order to work as an analyst in a VC fund? What are the qualities you're looking for when recruiting graduates?

• 01:27:34 If you live in a different time past or present, what do you think you would do professionally or future?

• 01:32:08 My main competitor received ~$200 million in recent debt round in 2021, and $490 million in 2019 led by SoftBank. I think that's a good sign for me because they started 2007.

• So now they're too big and too slow. My startup is like a small pirate ship that can easily change direction, add new features, et cetera. Am I wrong?

• 01:36:54 Investing in France: What do you think of the system?

• 01:37:48 What do you think of digital biology?

• 01:38:41 With your milestone birthday coming up, I can't wait. What adventurous ambitions are you most looking forward to in the next half century?

• 01:40:14 What is the dream guest you would like to have on the Playing with Unicorn podcast and why?

• 01:44:58 Can you share the acceptance percentage of FJ Labs for the pre-seed and seed rounds? What are the chances that you will be invited to poll with your team?

• 01:47:53 What is the last job to be replaced by AI robots?

People often ask me how I manage to accomplish so much while leading such a rich, passionate life as illustrated by my 2023 year in review. In this episode I share all my secrets. I will cover everything from general productivity tips to how and what you can outsource in your professional and personal life.

I had the pleasure of receiving Julio Vasconcellos on the show. Julio is the Founder and Managing Partner of Atlantico, a leading early-stage venture fund in Latin America. It was Julio's role as the inaugural Facebook employee for Latin America that initiated his path in the startup world in the region after starting his career in Silicon Valley. He later co-founded Peixe Urbano, scaling it to over 1,200 employees and $100M+ in revenue. After a startup rollercoaster ride with multiple near-death experiences, Julio sold the company to Baidu, and went on to join Benchmark Capital as an Entrepreneur-in-Residence. There, he met Scott Belsky and the two went on to co-found Prefer in San Francisco which Benchmark backed, as they had with Peixe Urbano.

Alongside his entrepreneurial journey, Julio has been investing for over a decade. Starting as a seed investor, he co-founded Graph Ventures with fellow colleagues from Facebook and Stanford. Later, he helped co-found Canary (https://canary.com.br/), the leading seed-stage fund in Latin America. In 2020, Julio returned to Brazil to found Atlantico and focus on early-stage venture investing.

We covered:

• His history and path into tech.
• His transition from entrepreneur to investor.
• Why he built Atlantico to focus on Series A investing in Latin America.
• The significant investment potential within Latin America today.

I had the pleasure of being joined by my good friend Kevin Ryan. He’s often been called the “Godfather of NYC tech.” Kevin is one of the leading internet entrepreneurs and investors in New York. He is a co-founder of MongoDB, Business Insider, Gilt Groupe, Zola, and Nomad Health, and founds new companies with AlleyCorp every year. Earlier in his career, Kevin helped to grow DoubleClick first as President and then as CEO, leading their growth from a 20-person startup to a publicly traded global leader with over 1,500 employees, through IPO in 1998 and acquisition by Google in 2007.

Kevin is also on the Board of Tech:NYC, Vice Chairman of The Partnership for New York City, a member of the CFR Committee on Foreign Affairs, and Director Emeritus for Human Rights Watch. Kevin previously served on the boards of the Yale Corporation and INSEAD.

It's also worth mentioning Kevin is the one who convinced me to go to Antarctica with him.

We covered:

·         His history and path into tech.

·         How he built so many successful companies with Alley Corp.

·         Lessons learned along the way.

·         His general life philosophy and perspective on Antarctica, Burning Man, psychedelics and much more.

It had been over a year since we did the last Ask Me Anything (AMA) so the time had come. As requested by the audience, my son François joined us for the first part of the show. He was his usual epic self: calm, poised, and playing along cutely. His presence clearly played a part in the success of the episode which was one of the most watched ever across all the platforms and was by far the most interactive episode ever with 137 live comments in addition to dozens of questions submitted ahead of time!

The audience’s questions fell into 5 categories: Antarctica, Marketplaces, Startups, Macro, and Other (life decisions, books, etc.) which I covered in turn.

This week, I had the pleasure of chatting with my good friend Oskar Hartmann. He’s had the most incredible unicorn experience:

• He was part of 10% of all German unicorns
• Made a $300M mistake on Ozon
• Managed to make money on Fab.com despite it going from $1.5B in value to $0 in 6 months
• Why selling at the point of maximum secondary liquidity is probably a bad time to sell
• Much more!

On this week’s episode I had the pleasure of welcoming Nitya Sharma, co-founder and CEO of Simpl, to conclude our mini-series on the Indian tech scene. We had a fascinating conversation on the state of Indian Fintech, which in many ways is more advanced than the US. I am beyond impressed by the free C2C / B2B / B2C instantaneous real time payments allowed by UPI and the business models that emerge when you can do free microtransactions. I wish the West had the equivalent of India’s UPI (or Brazil’s Pix). I am also beyond impressed by what Nitya has built with Simpl, which I hope will be a Unicorn soon!

This week we are covering the state of the Indian tech ecosystem. We are joined by Luke Skertich, senior associate at FJ Labs, who is leading the charge with our Indian investments.

In this episode, we cover:

• The history of India’s tech ecosystem and the recent explosion in unicorns
• Why we are short term pessimistic, but medium and long term super bullish
• Why we are focusing on Picks and Shovels, Financial Infrastructure, and B2B Marketplaces